Texas finishes the season unranked. Let’s be honest: Texas was not as good as its 10–4 record last season. Just three of those wins were by margins of more than seven points. The Longhorns’ defense allowed more yards per play (5.6) than the Longhorns’ offense gained (5.5). But in this case, it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. The same team that lost to Maryland in its season opener followed by beating lowly Tulsa at home by seven points ended up with a big statement win over Georgia.
Everything is bigger in Texas, including the offseason hype created from that Sugar Bowl victory. But don’t be fooled by the preseason top-10 ranking, this is a team that isn’t as good as it’s being propped up to be. Texas has to undergo a complete rebuild job on the defensive side of the ball, as it has to replace its entire front seven and both of its starting cornerbacks. The Longhorns also will be breaking in three new starters along the offensive line and Sam Ehlinger lost his top target in Lil’Jordan Humphrey.
Speaking of Ehlinger, his big weakness is an inability to stretch the field with his arm. Texas was one of two schools that didn’t have a 50-yard gain on offense last season, and the Longhorns had just six 40-yard-plus gains (tied for 124th) despite playing in 14 games. That’s tough to accomplish given the Longhorns had the dynamic duo of Humphrey and 6’6” behemoth Collin Johnson at wideout. He’s an effective runner, but that also opens himself up to getting hit, and Texas can ill-afford to lose him via injury. In 2018, Shane Buechele came off the bench in relief when Ehlinger got hurt, but Buechele transferred to SMU in the offseason. Now Ehlinger’s backup is redshirt freshman Casey Thompson.
The Longhorns have a tough road schedule this season, including games at TCU, Iowa State and Baylor, all of whom have win totals of at least 7.5 at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Add in the Red River Showdown against Oklahoma and an incredibly tricky Week 2 home game against LSU, and that is a schedule that could easily result in four losses. And that’s what I think will happen.