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Apr 21 - Why homicide rates are falling across the country



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Apr 21 - Why homicide rates are falling across the country
 

 
Homicides are falling across the U.S. And that shift could impact the role crime — often a top voter concern — plays as an issue in November’s election.

But it is a phenomenon for which experts don’t have a clear explanation.

Some say homicide peaks come and go in cycles, some say policing improved after the COVID-19 pandemic, and some attribute it to the evolving national conversation about how to handle crime.

A data analysis released last week shows that the number of homicides in cities like Boston, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and Chicago, are dropping.

While many major cities, especially those run by Democrats with liberal-leaning policies and populations, have received backlash from Republicans for being inundated with violent crime, the new data paints a picture of an improving situation.

Experts, though, aren’t agreed on exactly why the number of homicides has fallen so far, so fast.

Boston saw the sharpest decline from 2023 to 2024, with homicides dropping by 82 percent. In Philadelphia, homicides dropped by 37 percent; in Dallas, homicides dropped by 27 percent; and in Chicago, homicides dropped by 6 percent, according to estimates from city police department reports compiled by AH Datalytics.

Jeffrey f@gan, professor of law and epidemiology at Columbia University, attributes the improvements to a typical crime cycle.


“I think there’s something natural in this cyclical nature of homicide and violence. One of the distinguishing features of what happened in the most recent period was that it had to do with murder more so than with other violent crimes. Other violent crimes rose but not nearly to the same extent as murder,” he said. “It’s likely to happen again, we just don’t understand the circumstances when these externalities will create the social and economic conditions for homicide rates to arise again.”

Fagan outlined other cycles, like in the 1960s when homicides started rising and peaked by 1972, then fell sharply. And in the late 1970s, when they took off again to peak in 1981 and then crash. And in the late 1980s, homicide rates skyrocketed and peaked in 1991 before crashing again.

“So, what’s the common denominator other than the fact that there’s this recurring cycle of peaks, crashes, peaks, crashes, peaks, crashes? There’s something natural about these episodes in that they follow an epidemic pattern. Any epidemiologist will tell you that it looks like any other disease epidemic,” he said.

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Alex Piquero, former director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics under President Biden, outlined the factors he argues caused the spike in homicides: Community prevention programs were put on hold during the COVID-19 pandemic, and law enforcement pulled back due to the 2020 murder of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer and because of pandemic staffing issues.

Piquero, a professor of sociology and criminology at the University of Miami, said those conditions have been reset. “Their staffing levels are going up, police are around the community more, they’re targeting violent places and violent people using appropriate statistical methodology.”

Piquero looks at crime as a local level issue and noted it’s hard to tell yet if the funding from the Department of Justice (DOJ) under the Biden administration to combat crime is helping.


Fagan agreed, noting that homicides peak or crash “regardless of what criminal justice or public health policies are in place.”

Andrea Headley, a criminal justice policy expert at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy, argued that investments from the federal government, whether from the bipartisan gun safety act or the American Rescue Plan, have made an impact.

Biden signed the American Rescue Plan into law in 2021, and it provided $10 billion for public safety. The bipartisan gun safety law was signed in 2022, enhancing background checks for purchasers younger than 21 and funding red flag laws to keep guns out of the hands of people deemed to be a threat to themselves or others.


“We see funding for law enforcement that happened,” Headley said. “We see, which I think probably is arguably more important, is the funding and the support structures for community violence interventions, wraparound social support services, but also the investments in job programs and mentoring. Things that we know typically are correlates of violent crime. And, kind of this targeted approach of taking money from the federal level and investing it in local communities.”

She noted the holistic approach isn’t new, but the national conversation about it is new — it was launched when the federal government provided that support.

“I think that kind of wraparound strategy of, we’re investing in community safety from all of these angles and in a way that is unprecedented is really powerful in terms of what we’ve been seeing with some of the declines, particularly last year,” she said.
 https://thehill.com/homen .. rates-falling/
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122 comments

 1 month ago '11        #2
Broseph Stalin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x18
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wow you mean cities aren’t these big scary dystopias that people who never go outside rent and rave about?

Bu-B-b-b-BU-but the demoncrats
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+41   

 1 month ago '07        #3
RonniexRamen 
Props total: 2117 2 K  Slaps total: 69 69
You can’t get away with anything. Technology everywhere.
+63   

 1 month ago '17        #4
Naga Sadow  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x27
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But Mickey Rourke and the other troglodytes keep saying that illegals are ma$s executing citizens.

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+19   

 1 month ago '16        #5
kuul  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x12
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Everybody g@y in jail. If you get caught doin a crime i assume you g@y af
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 1 month ago '19        #6
zzxxccvvbb 
Props total: 59171 59 K  Slaps total: 6916 6 K
Inflation. People can't afford bullets
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+49   

 1 month ago '12        #7
Theboybreblue  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x9
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My personal opinion, I believe that the reason why crime is falling is because certain things that were once crimes are now not being seen as crimes. Which is a good thing because law-enforcement would use the most basic and bullsh1t excuse to throw people in jail.
+18   

 1 month ago '20        #8
Born Bad 
Props total: 65542 65 K  Slaps total: 5583 5 K
 JohnnyWishbone said 🔗
They must not have visited New Orleans and Memphis lately

Exactly! Memphis was at 100 homicides 2 weeks ago. I remember we used to average 130 per year.

Gah Dam



+8   

 1 month ago '04        #9
thetrapper  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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 RonniexRamen said 🔗
You can’t get away with anything. Technology everywhere.
yeah thats 1 reason crime in dubai is so low and their laws are wild strict af as well

but my boy said cctv is everywhere out there so u cant really do sh1t without getting jammed up
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 1 month ago '12        #10
Theboybreblue  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x9
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 JohnnyWishbone said 🔗
They must not have visited New Orleans and Memphis lately
In the grand scheme of things, they are a very small part of the United States.
+18   

 1 month ago '20        #11
b4dizzzzzzzle 
Props total: 7040 7 K  Slaps total: 676 676
inflation n gud weeeed.
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 1 month ago '19        #12
SuperPawgHunter  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x9
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I'm all for throwing criminals in jail. I'm 100% against innocent people being sent to jail.
+11   

 1 month ago '15        #13
basedjjed 
Props total: 204 204  Slaps total: 23 23
 JohnnyWishbone said 🔗
They must not have visited New Orleans and Memphis lately
↪🔗
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 1 month ago '05        #14
240sx 
Props total: 13788 13 K  Slaps total: 2247 2 K
GTFOH
If the sh1t ain’t reported then what ?
What’s on paper doesn’t add up in real time
No arrest means no crime
If you’re out here you kno what’s real
Fuk your bull sh1t
This sh1ts at a all time high GTFOH with this clown sh1t

 1 month ago '07        #15
varun313 
Props total: 15067 15 K  Slaps total: 1871 1 K
Bottom line cuz there's cameras literally everywhere

And it's impossible to clean ur tracks on anything u plan to do that's illegal
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 1 month ago '09        #16
kellica  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
Props total: 3526 3 K  Slaps total: 314 314
Even if homicides are low, politicians will still claim rates are higher than ever and climbing just to get a gullible vote
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 1 month ago '19        #17
zzxxccvvbb 
Props total: 59171 59 K  Slaps total: 6916 6 K
Crime probably going down because the dope game is evolving

Way more small operators and less turf wars at street level
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 1 month ago '16        #18
lars  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x6
Props total: 49715 49 K  Slaps total: 3995 3 K
The murder rate is cyclical just like the economic cycle is wild.
When a recession hits I think we all know if that cycle will go boom or bust.
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 1 month ago '16        #19
Ldogg310v2 
Props total: 29558 29 K  Slaps total: 3011 3 K
Cause everyone got a gun now, except if u in Cali or New York . ****** a$s Democrats.

I still got mines though, run up in my crib and u getting a pacifier.
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 1 month ago '19        #20
MMA  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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 zzxxccvvbb said 🔗
Inflation. People can't afford bullets
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You crazy for that one.
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 1 month ago '15        #21
mrwoodside 
Props total: 19362 19 K  Slaps total: 2758 2 K
We too busy getting money…
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+4   

 1 month ago '05        #22
ReDvIaGrA  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x15
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Time to vote thats why


Last edited by ReDvIaGrA; 04-22-2024 at 01:02 PM..
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 1 month ago '18        #23
illicit lee  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x11
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 Naga Sadow said 🔗
But Mickey Rourke and the other troglodytes keep saying that illegals are ma$s executing citizens.

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Nah they not but they def moving pickpocketing prostitution breaking into cars and apartments
Stabbing and shooting at each other …

Them Venezuelans starting a crime wave in Nyc
+3   

 1 month ago '22        #24
Qwietazkept  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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 varun313 said 🔗
Bottom line cuz there's cameras literally everywhere

And it's impossible to clean ur tracks on anything u plan to do that's illegal
I agree. Overheard a couple young guys the other day talkin bout getting a rental to.......y'know

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 1 month ago '19        #25
Number5  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x4
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People too busy enjoying social media.
+3   

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