Either former president Donald Trump’s standing in early 2024 polls is inflated, or we are headed for a sizable realignment in how non-White voters cast their ballots.

Multiple polls in recent weeks have shown Trump performing historically well among Black and Hispanic voters in head-to-head matchups with President Biden, helping put him neck-and-neck with Biden in a way he rarely was during their 2020 matchup.

Across five high-quality polls that have broken out non-White voters in the past month, Trump is averaging 20 percent of Black voters and 42 percent of Hispanic voters.

Both numbers — and especially that for Black voters — could set modern-day records for a Republican in a presidential election. Trump in 2020 took just 8 percent of Black voters and 36 percent of Hispanic voters, according to the Pew Research Center’s validated voter survey. Exit polls pegged those figures at 12 percent of Black voters and 32 percent of Hispanic voters.

(The validated voter surveys involve conducting a huge poll of American adults and then getting a more accurate picture than the exit polls by verifying whether respondents actually voted, using official records.)

No Republican presidential candidate in the past 50 years has approached receiving 20 percent of the Black vote. Since Republicans took 18 percent in 1972 and 16 percent in 1976, according to exit polls, they haven’t taken more than 12 percent of Black voters. Their average share over the past 50 years is 9 percent — about half of where Trump currently sits in the polls.

Hispanic voters have trended toward the GOP in recent elections, but the party’s current high-water marks over the past half-century are 37 percent in 1984 and a disputed 44 percent in 2004. (Other estimates placed President George W. Bush’s actual share of the Hispanic vote that year at about 40 percent, which would be shy of where Trump currently is in the polls.)

The first thing to note is that individual polls tend to feature small sample sizes of Black and Hispanic voters, which is why we have combined multiple surveys. Trump actually takes as much as 25 percent of Black voters in a recent Quinnipiac University poll and 47 percent of Hispanic voters in a recent CBS News poll — numbers that would appear implausible even if those voters have trended toward him significantly.

Another point is that despite the GOP’s claims about Trump’s ability to appeal to Black voters and especially Black men, this wouldn’t appear to be strictly about Trump. Fox News’s pollsters last week tested seven 2024 Republicans against Biden, and just about every GOP candidate was near 20 percent.

(Interestingly, the worst-performing GOP member among Black voters: Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, the leading Black Republican in the race, who took 15 percent.)

There is also recent precedent for polls overstating how much these groups, particularly Black voters, ultimately cast ballots for Republicans.

Just before the 2022 election, quality polls — including from many of the same pollsters detailed here — showed Republicans taking an average of 40 percent of the Hispanic vote and 16 percent of the Black vote (as much as 21 percent in one late poll). That share of Hispanic voters ultimately more or less matched the results, but exit polls showed Republicans getting 12 percent of Black voters. And the later, more in-depth data from Pew pegged the GOP’s share of the Black vote much lower, at just 5 percent.

But Democrats clearly suffered with non-White voters in 2022, for one main reason: lower turnout. And that’s certainly a prospect that looms large for Biden.

The New York Times’s Nate Cohn recently assembled data across multiple Times-Siena College polls, which also reflected the tightening of the non-White vote — albeit not as much as the more recent polls. Enthusiasm was the culprit:

The dissatisfaction of younger and lower-turnout voters raises the possibility that Mr. Biden’s weakness in the polls may show up primarily as low turnout among Black and Hispanic voters, rather than as a titanic shift toward Mr. Trump. Something similar might have happened in the last midterm election, when Democrats appeared to maintain usual shares of support among Black voters, but the racial turnout gap increased to multi-decade highs.
Indeed, Mr. Biden’s lead among nonwhite voters expands to 57-27 among those who voted in 2020 or 2022, compared with 53-28 among all registered nonwhite voters. And his lead among those recent voters could grow further, to 63-29, if undecided and dissenting voters are assigned to the candidate whom they said they backed in the last presidential election.
A 63-29 lead would be much closer to Mr. Biden’s standing among nonwhite voters in the last presidential election, as would his 84-11 lead among Black voters and his 55-37 lead among Hispanic voters in that same scenario.
Yet even after allocating the remaining undecided voters, these tallies might still be the worst for a Democratic leader among Black and Hispanic voters since Walter Mondale in 1984.

The recent polling also reinforces this concern for Democrats. While late in the 2020 election, polls showed Black voters came up just shy of White voters in terms of their motivation to vote, a recent CNN poll of the 2024 election showed a chasm.

While 89 percent of White voters said they were at least “very” motivated to vote, just 67 percent of Black voters said the same. And while 72 percent of White voters were “extremely” motivated, just 44 percent of Black voters were.

All the caveats that come with early polls apply here. These are snapshots in time that rely on small subsamples, and things can and will change over the next 14 months. But this is certainly looking like one of the most significant subplots of the early stages of the 2024 election.

↪ https://www.washingtonpos .. lack-hispanic/

Inflation. Blame will be placed. Let’s see how it turns out..

boobalo1 said 🔗 Inflation. Blame will be placed. Let’s see how it turns out..

You already know this sh1t fake as fu#k. Trump thinks he's polling at 20% with black voters? This racist a$s white dude got like 8% of the black vote in 2020. He'll be really lucky if he gets 9% of the black vote in 2024 if he even makes it to the election.

Ymmot said 🔗 You already know this sh1t fake as fu#k. Trump thinks he's polling at 20% with black voters? This racist a$s white dude got like 8% of the black vote in 2020. He'll be really lucky if he gets 9% of the black vote in 2024 if he even makes it to the election.

Will you actually move to Canada this time if trump wins again? Or empty words again?

Ymmot said 🔗 You already know this sh1t fake as fu#k. Trump thinks he's polling at 20% with black voters? This racist a$s white dude got like 8% of the black vote in 2020. He'll be really lucky if he gets 9% of the black vote in 2024 if he even makes it to the election.

He’s got my vote.
Imagine voting for a half dead 200 year old ped0phile like Biden that doesn’t give a fu#k about Americans and does whatever his Hebrew donors and puppet masters tell him to do like opening up the border for millions of illegals.

Still can’t believe we got blacks for trump and n1ggas for trump

Just get ready for the show !

yunghuss973 said 🔗 He’s got my vote. Imagine voting for a half dead 200 year old ped0phile like Biden that doesn’t give a fu#k about Americans and does whatever his Hebrew donors and puppet masters tell him to do like opening up the border for millions of illegals.

Pulling out all the buzz words, "ped0phile" "j3wish donors" "puppet" "illegals"

For next time, make sure to not forget "Hunter" Burisma" "Clintons" "2000 mules" "vaccines"

Last time Trump ran there was a parade the day before. A 100 or so vehicles of whiskey papas mofos all riding through the community. They drove around flashing lights, honking their horns and dancing on trailers and truck beds.

The day after the election it was quiet than a mofo. I rode my bike through and mofos were taking down their signs sad as hell. I smiled like the freaking Grinch.

Mega Tears!!!!

Verdict said 🔗 Pulling out all the buzz words, "ped0phile" "j3wish donors" "puppet" "illegals" For next time, make sure to not forget "Hunter" Burisma" "Clintons" "2000 mules" "vaccines"

Are they buzzwords or are they facts?

He is a ped0phile.
He does whatever his Hebrew pimps tell him to.
Those “migrants” are illegals.
His son is a degenerate criminal.

You being triggered by so called “buzzwords” doesn’t make anything less true.

IMO every black person in America should be an Independent.

If you compare the Trump years to the Biden years, which one do you want 4 more years of?

Just some idiots whom don't rely on facts but fall for rhetoric and propaganda instead. Lot of false narratives out there about the greatness of Trump.

Latinos voting for this piece of sh1t wow .. but most of it coming from Christian Latinos. Them dumb fu#ks ride or die for MAGA as them Europeans tell them to go back to their countries. All in the name of a white Jesus.

That pole

🔗

Ymmot said 🔗 You already know this sh1t fake as fu#k. Trump thinks he's polling at 20% with black voters? This racist a$s white dude got like 8% of the black vote in 2020. He'll be really lucky if he gets 9% of the black vote in 2024 if he even makes it to the election.

Black people fu#k with trump, they always have. Just look at how many times he's been referenced in hip hop. Trump even appeared on a G Unit mixtape. He also pardoned Lil Wayne and Kodack black. Name one president that pardoned more rappers than Trump. I'll wait...

Trump always fu#ked with hip hop culture and his policies as president helped black people more than Obama's. I guarantee you that Trump gets over 20% of the black male vote.

HERMES said 🔗 Either former president Donald Trump’s standing in early 2024 polls is inflated, or we are headed for a sizable realignment in how non-White voters cast their ballots. Multiple polls in recent weeks have shown Trump performing historically well among Black and Hispanic voters in head-to-head matchups with President Biden, helping put him neck-and-neck with Biden in a way he rarely was during their 2020 matchup. Across five high-quality polls that have broken out non-White voters in the past month, Trump is averaging 20 percent of Black voters and 42 percent of Hispanic voters. Both numbers — and especially that for Black voters — could set modern-day records for a Republican in a presidential election. Trump in 2020 took just 8 percent of Black voters and 36 percent of Hispanic voters, according to the Pew Research Center’s validated voter survey. Exit polls pegged those figures at 12 percent of Black voters and 32 percent of Hispanic voters. (The validated voter surveys involve conducting a huge poll of American adults and then getting a more accurate picture than the exit polls by verifying whether respondents actually voted, using official records.) No Republican presidential candidate in the past 50 years has approached receiving 20 percent of the Black vote. Since Republicans took 18 percent in 1972 and 16 percent in 1976, according to exit polls, they haven’t taken more than 12 percent of Black voters. Their average share over the past 50 years is 9 percent — about half of where Trump currently sits in the polls. Hispanic voters have trended toward the GOP in recent elections, but the party’s current high-water marks over the past half-century are 37 percent in 1984 and a disputed 44 percent in 2004. (Other estimates placed President George W. Bush’s actual share of the Hispanic vote that year at about 40 percent, which would be shy of where Trump currently is in the polls.) The first thing to note is that individual polls tend to feature small sample sizes of Black and Hispanic voters, which is why we have combined multiple surveys. Trump actually takes as much as 25 percent of Black voters in a recent Quinnipiac University poll and 47 percent of Hispanic voters in a recent CBS News poll — numbers that would appear implausible even if those voters have trended toward him significantly. Another point is that despite the GOP’s claims about Trump’s ability to appeal to Black voters and especially Black men, this wouldn’t appear to be strictly about Trump. Fox News’s pollsters last week tested seven 2024 Republicans against Biden, and just about every GOP candidate was near 20 percent. (Interestingly, the worst-performing GOP member among Black voters: Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, the leading Black Republican in the race, who took 15 percent.) There is also recent precedent for polls overstating how much these groups, particularly Black voters, ultimately cast ballots for Republicans. Just before the 2022 election, quality polls — including from many of the same pollsters detailed here — showed Republicans taking an average of 40 percent of the Hispanic vote and 16 percent of the Black vote (as much as 21 percent in one late poll). That share of Hispanic voters ultimately more or less matched the results, but exit polls showed Republicans getting 12 percent of Black voters. And the later, more in-depth data from Pew pegged the GOP’s share of the Black vote much lower, at just 5 percent. But Democrats clearly suffered with non-White voters in 2022, for one main reason: lower turnout. And that’s certainly a prospect that looms large for Biden. The New York Times’s Nate Cohn recently assembled data across multiple Times-Siena College polls, which also reflected the tightening of the non-White vote — albeit not as much as the more recent polls. Enthusiasm was the culprit: The dissatisfaction of younger and lower-turnout voters raises the possibility that Mr. Biden’s weakness in the polls may show up primarily as low turnout among Black and Hispanic voters, rather than as a titanic shift toward Mr. Trump. Something similar might have happened in the last midterm election, when Democrats appeared to maintain usual shares of support among Black voters, but the racial turnout gap increased to multi-decade highs. Indeed, Mr. Biden’s lead among nonwhite voters expands to 57-27 among those who voted in 2020 or 2022, compared with 53-28 among all registered nonwhite voters. And his lead among those recent voters could grow further, to 63-29, if undecided and dissenting voters are assigned to the candidate whom they said they backed in the last presidential election. A 63-29 lead would be much closer to Mr. Biden’s standing among nonwhite voters in the last presidential election, as would his 84-11 lead among Black voters and his 55-37 lead among Hispanic voters in that same scenario. Yet even after allocating the remaining undecided voters, these tallies might still be the worst for a Democratic leader among Black and Hispanic voters since Walter Mondale in 1984. The recent polling also reinforces this concern for Democrats. While late in the 2020 election, polls showed Black voters came up just shy of White voters in terms of their motivation to vote, a recent CNN poll of the 2024 election showed a chasm. While 89 percent of White voters said they were at least “very” motivated to vote, just 67 percent of Black voters said the same. And while 72 percent of White voters were “extremely” motivated, just 44 percent of Black voters were. All the caveats that come with early polls apply here. These are snapshots in time that rely on small subsamples, and things can and will change over the next 14 months. But this is certainly looking like one of the most significant subplots of the early stages of the 2024 election. ↪🔗

Where the fu#k are they getting these surveys from? Pathetic to affiliate black and brown people
with a known rapist, racist, con man but hey they've been doing that since the turn of the century. Devils will devil

Ymmot said 🔗 You already know this sh1t fake as fu#k. Trump thinks he's polling at 20% with black voters? This racist a$s white dude got like 8% of the black vote in 2020. He'll be really lucky if he gets 9% of the black vote in 2024 if he even makes it to the election.

Behind closed doors friend. The cost to the individual will be a major factor..

MONEY WORLD said 🔗 He also pardoned Lil Wayne and Kodack black. Name one president that pardoned more rappers than Trump. I'll wait...

Its great when a president pardons anyone but there’s something about the way in which conservatives market this to us that comes off as patronizing. For example, imagine if a politician from either party wanted to secure the Asian vote so they went and pardoned two kung fu stars. I’m sure there’s a segment of asians that would be like “damn, they think we like Kung Fu that much just because we’re asian?”

I could understand if they used the passing of Opportunity Zones to make their case, but the stuff about pardoning two rappers will always sound wild to me.

Ymmot said 🔗 You already know this sh1t fake as fu#k. Trump thinks he's polling at 20% with black voters? This racist a$s white dude got like 8% of the black vote in 2020. He'll be really lucky if he gets 9% of the black vote in 2024 if he even makes it to the election.

Personally, I’m waiting for 3rd qtr GDP.. atlantafed projections at 4.9%.. Im working, with a grip of work on the horizon, that is what I look for.

So far I’m ridin with Biden.

MONEY WORLD said 🔗 Black people fu#k with trump, they always have. Just look at how many times he's been referenced in hip hop. Trump even appeared on a G Unit mixtape. He also pardoned Lil Wayne and Kodack black. Name one president that pardoned more rappers than Trump. I'll wait... Trump always fu#ked with hip hop culture and his policies as president helped black people more than Obama's. I guarantee you that Trump gets over 20% of the black male vote.

they paid him 2 million each for their pardons you ignorant twat fu#KK-. go jerKK- off in the th0tties section

Hopefully Biden wins, dies, then Kamala runs the fu#king show.

DIPSET101 said 🔗 Still can’t believe we got blacks for trump and n1ggas for trump

Yeah stuff like that is a clown show.

But real talk I don’t see why a black American would be so vigilant about voting for joe biden.

Even if you don’t support trump, wanting to support biden is sus to me.

Black folk we are allowed to not support democrats

MONEY WORLD said 🔗 Black people fu#k with trump, they always have. Just look at how many times he's been referenced in hip hop. Trump even appeared on a G Unit mixtape. He also pardoned Lil Wayne and Kodack black. Name one president that pardoned more rappers than Trump. I'll wait... Trump always fu#ked with hip hop culture and his policies as president helped black people more than Obama's. I guarantee you that Trump gets over 20% of the black male vote.

Definitely its gonna be personal this time especially after Biden just gave about 500 thousand Venezuelan migrants work visas that go into effect immediately. Migrants who are mostly grown men. They will be taking alot of jobs over the next year

No matter what the Democrat shills in this thread say I will be shocked if Trump doesnt get 20 percent of Black men

I can even see him hitting double digits with Black women since it looks like they finally woke up and are criticizing Democrats alot more especially for the migrant crisis

DUCEDUCE said 🔗 Latinos voting for this piece of sh1t wow .. but most of it coming from Christian Latinos. Them dumb fu#ks ride or die for MAGA as them Europeans tell them to go back to their countries. All in the name of a white Jesus.

Yup. My family full of them. Older generation and younger. All in the mix with their church.. this church selling them blessed table salt from HEB. My granny got pissed cuz I opened one my auntie gave her.

Man.. I’m driving thru the country on a 3 week road trip. You mfs aligning yourself with trump voters.. is fu#king hilarious. I’ve never seen such run down pieces of property in my fu#king life flying Trump 2024 flags. Them “miss me yet” flags..

These people are fu#king destitute. Every aspect of their life is decrepit, falling apart, left outside to rot. sh1t is sad how people let their own property and possessions decay along with their mind and soul.

Remember these are the MAGAs fighting with you.

Ain’t no fu#king way these people have jobs. Making any kind of money. They’ll sit there and cry about welfare queens and government assistance programs.. WHILE BEING ON WELFARE THEMSELVES.

sh1t is almost sad, I feel like I’m picking on people who are financially, mentally , and emotionally stunted.

The brainwashing is fu#king insane. These people will call you all kindsa stupid and this and that.. while buying the mostly easily sold conspiracy theories, repeating stupid buzzwords coined by dinosaur boomers (ex. Demon rat instead of democrat) y’all have lost all ability to debate like normal human beings.