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NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks rose just enough for Wall Street to barrel into a new bull market Thursday as the S&P 500 keeps rallying off its low from last autumn.

The index rose 0.6% to carry it 20% above a bottom hit in October. That means Wall Street’s main measure of health has climbed out of a painful bear market, which saw it drop 25.4% over roughly nine months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 168 points, or 0.5%, Thursday. The Nasdaq composite, meanwhile, led the way with a 1% rise. That’s been the norm so far this bull market, as chip maker Nvidia and a handful of other big tech stocks have been responsible for the lion’s share of Wall Street’s gains.

Declaring the end of a bear market may seem arbitrary, but it offers a useful marker for investors. It also provides a reminder that investors able to hold on through downturns have nearly always made back all their losses in S&P 500 index funds eventually.

Even though it was driven by so many superlatives — the worst inflation in generations and the fastest hikes to interest rates in decades, for example— this most recent bear market lasted only about nine months. It stretched from Jan. 3, 2022, when the S&P 500 set a record, until Oct. 12, when it hit bottom. That’s shorter than the typical bear market, and it also resulted in a shallower loss than average.

“In hindsight, it might not look that bad, but it certainly feels bad in the moment,” said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual.

What made last year even more painful for investors is that both stocks and bonds lost money, he said, something that hasn’t happened in decades.

Much of this bull market’s gains have been because the economy has refused to fall into a recession despite repeated predictions for one. It’s withstood the highest interest rates since 2007, three high-profile collapses for U.S. banks, another threat by the U.S. government of an economy-shaking default on its debt and a series of other challenges.

“Bottom line, the economy has been very resilient,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief markets strategist at Ameriprise Financial.

“So much negativity was built into the market,” he said. “While it’s too early to know this for sure, stocks look like they’re doing what they normally do when all the negativity has been discounted into the stock market: They start moving higher in anticipation of better days ahead.”

Not only has the economy avoided a recession because of a remarkably solid job market and spending by consumers, hopes are also rising that the Fed may soon stop hiking interest rates as inflation has come down from its peak last summer.

High rates work to undercut inflation by slowing the entire economy and dragging on prices for stocks and other investments.

The broad expectation among traders is that the Fed will hold rates steady next week, which would mark the first meeting where it hasn’t raised rates in more than a year. While it may hike rates one more time in July, the hope on Wall Street is that it won’t go beyond that. Inflation has been coming down from its peak last summer.

But many challenges still remain for the stock market.

Chief among them is that no one can be sure about when Fed will be done hiking rates. Even if inflation has been coming down, it’s remained stubbornly above the Fed’s comfort level and is still causing pain for all kinds of households, particularly ones with lower incomes.

That has some investors continuing to prepare for a coming recession, even if they keep pushing out predictions for when it will arrive by a few months.

“It’s been an odd and uneven recovery” coming out of the recession caused the COVID pandemic, Northwestern Mutual’s Schutte said. “It’s been an odd and even push into recession.”

Another warning sign for skeptics is how much of the S&P 500’s gains have been concentrated this year within just a handful of stocks.

Hopes for a pause by the Fed have helped big, high-growth stocks in particular. Investors see them benefiting the most from easier interest rates because that’s what’s happened in the past.

Add on top of that euphoria around artificial intelligence fanned by last month’s tremendous sales forecast by Nvidia, and just seven stocks have been responsible for the majority of the S&P 500’s gain this year.

Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and other Big Tech giants have so much influence on the S&P 500 because they’re the biggest, and the index gives more weight to stocks based on their size. Nearly half the stocks in the S&P 500, meanwhile, are down for the year so far.

Thursday’s gains for the S&P 500 offered a good example. It rose largely because of Big Tech, which gained as expectations built for the Fed to take a pause on rates next week.

That was because a report showed the highest number of U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week since October 2021. It helped push against pressure that may have built for tougher policy after central banks in Canada and Australia hiked their own rates recently.

But the S&P 500 was nearly split between winners and losers. Smaller stocks in the Russell 2000 index, meanwhile, slipped 0.4%.

The arrival of a bull market also doesn’t mean the stock market has made it back to its prior heights. Because of math, a 25% drop for the S&P 500 requires a 33% rally to follow in order to just get back to even.

GameStop was one of Wall Street’s bigger movers Thursday, falling 17.9% after ousting its CEO who was brought in to turn around the struggling video game retailer. The company, whose stock became a sensation in 2021 during the meme-stock craze, also reported weaker revenue for the latest quarter than expected.

Adobe rose 5% for one of the biggest gains in the S&P 500 after it announced a new artificial-intelligence offering for businesses. It joined the AI frenzy that supporters say will be the next revolution to remake the economy. Critics say it’s inflating the next bubble.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 26.41 points to 4,293.93. The Dow gained 168.59 to 33,833.61, and the Nasdaq rose 133.63 to 13,238.52.

After the unemployment data hit the market, Treasury yields gave up gains from earlier in the morning. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.71% from 3.78% late Wednesday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

The two-year yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, fell to 4.51% from 4.55%.

We're past the worst of inflation, the stock market is back in a bull market, price of gas is back down. Jerome Powell/Biden admin are getting it done.

I interpret this as a major crash is coming

Rug pull on deck

Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and other Big Tech giants have so much influence on the S&P 500 because they’re the biggest, and the index gives more weight to stocks based on their size. Nearly half the stocks in the S&P 500, meanwhile, are down for the year so far.

But who knows

If that M2 money supply goes back up so will the few earners in the market

Buy nvidia and msft now. Hold it long term.

Ymmot said 🔗 We're past the worst of inflation, the stock market is back in a bull market, price of gas is back down. Jerome Powell/Biden admin are getting it done.

Interested to see how it plays out

Anytime it's increased towards 10 percent it has dropped and spiked to new highs. Also with them raising rates constantly but growth and spending still happening seems like the worst has yet to come (maybe not for inflation but economy). Does seem to be getting better but who knows at this point

philly337 said 🔗 Interested to see how it plays out Anytime it's increased towards 10 percent it has dropped and spiked to new highs. Also with them raising rates constantly but growth and spending still happening seems like the worst has yet to come (maybe not for inflation but economy). Does seem to be getting better but who knows at this point

Half the analysts are still talking doom and gloom and half of them think the market is about to have a bull rally. Hard to tell at this point, but AI definitely has investors excited.

winning2011 said 🔗 I interpret this as a major crash is coming

That would be incorrect based on historical data. Stocks will be up 17.7% a year from now on average based on this scenario.

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If you invest for the long run, it won’t be the last bear market it appears we are tr@nsitioning from.

Bear market rallies always get the suckers.

I can’t believe anyone believes with maxed out credit, people who overpaid for homes and cars, as well as sticky high inflation that a bull market is occurring.

TSLA been ki1ling it

Ymmot said 🔗 Half the analysts are still talking doom and gloom and half of them think the market is about to have a bull rally. Hard to tell at this point, but AI definitely has investors excited.

Sorry bro, was just scrolling. Cripply fingers

Combine news articles like this with the major dropoff in cardboard box production and I'd say it's about to get real out here

Prad Bitt said 🔗 I can’t believe anyone believes with maxed out credit, people who overpaid for homes and cars, as well as sticky high inflation that a bull market is occurring.

I saw in the morning local news the other day and they were hyping up the "steady growth" of our economy, but it was less growth than the inflation rate for the year...

Dead cat bounce

not enough of a dip

buy if you want too

winning2011 said 🔗 I interpret this as a major crash is coming

yup, reports like this are made to get the last squeeze out of the people who probably need that money the most

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winning2011 said 🔗 I interpret this as a major crash is coming

It’s always someone with a contrarian opinion. When it it’s good y’all want it to be bad and vice versa

Mmm on sale still

Binds said 🔗 Dead cat bounce

I can see it but I also see the start of the bull market. Some of these charts world wide look s3xy. Coiled and ready to spring

I will just adjust

Ymmot said 🔗 We're past the worst of inflation, the stock market is back in a bull market, price of gas is back down. Jerome Powell/Biden admin are getting it done.

Mortgage rates are still in the 7% range though

Ymmot said 🔗 We're past the worst of inflation, the stock market is back in a bull market, price of gas is back down. Jerome Powell/Biden admin are getting it done.

He def raising rates next week