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Sep 23 - Time for the dip! Recession risk now at 80%



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 1 day ago '17        #1
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Lazy  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x2
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Sep 23 - Time for the dip! Recession risk now at 80%
 

 


KEY POINTS
According to CNBC’s September Fed survey of economists, fund managers and strategists, those surveyed said there’s a 52% chance that U.S. could enter into recession over the next 12 months.
“The probability of recession, I think it’s much higher than 50% — I think it’s about 80%. Maybe even higher than 80%,” Hanke told CNBC’s Street Signs Asia.
He blamed the U.S. central bank for rising inflation. “The reason for that is because the Fed exploded the money supply, starting early 2020 at an unprecedented rate and they don’t want this length to be visible between the money supply and inflation.”
Steve Hanke says the Fed has been searching for the causes of inflation 'in all the wrong places'WATCH NOW
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Professor: Fed has been searching for causes of inflation in the wrong places
There’s an 80% chance of the U.S. falling into a recession — much higher than previously predicted, according to Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University.

According to CNBC’s September Fed survey of economists, fund managers and strategists, those surveyed said there’s a 52% chance that U.S. could enter into recession over the next 12 months.

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“The probability of recession, I think it’s much higher than 50% — I think it’s about 80%. Maybe even higher than 80%,” Hanke told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Friday.

“If they continue the quantitative tightening and move that growth rate and M2 (money supply) into negative territory, it’ll be severe.”

They have really been searching for inflation and the causes of inflation in all the wrong places. They’re looking at everything under the sun, but the money supply.
Steve Hanke
PROFESSOR OF APPLIED ECONOMICS, JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY.
Hanke was critical, and has been in the past, of the Federal Reserve’s failure to manage inflation through keeping an eye on the large supply of money sloshing around in the U.S. economy.

“They have really been searching for inflation and the causes of inflation in all the wrong places. They’re looking at everything under the sun, but the money supply,” Hanke said.

“And in fact, they’ve doubled and tripled down on the argument that money has no relationship to economic activity or not a reliable relationship to economic activity and inflation.”


A customer shops at a supermarket in Oregon on July 13 when U.S. consumer price index, soared to 9.1 percent in June from a year ago.
A customer shops at a supermarket in Oregon. There’s an 80% chance of the U.S. falling into a recession — much higher than previously predicted, according to Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University.
Wang Ying | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
He blamed the U.S. central bank for rising inflation.

“The reason for that is because the Fed exploded the money supply, starting early 2020 at an unprecedented rate and they don’t want this length to be visible between the money supply and inflation.”

“Because if it is, the noose around their neck, and that’s the real problem.”

An increase in money supply drives up prices as consumers are willing to pay more for goods.

Classical economics, as put forward by Milton Friedman and others, have pointed to money supply as the culprit for out-of-control inflation, Hanke added.

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The Fed flooded the U.S. economy with large amounts of stimulus and liquidity to keep it afloat during the pandemic, but did not focus on carefully reducing that money supply over time, the professor said.

The M2 supply of money, a broad measure of money supply which includes cash and deposits, has been growing by double digits in the past three years.

Now the growth of M2 money supply is slowing too quickly and that could send the economy into a recession, Hanke warned.

“They are not addressing it correctly,” he said. “In the five months, we’ve seen broad money major in the United States flatline. It’s not growing at all.

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“And now they’re going to introduce quantitative tightening and what that’s going to do that will drive the money supply down, that will drive it down into negative territory if they keep this up.”

Hanke said the right economic move would be to keep money supply growing at a “golden growth rate” of 5% to 6% to get inflation to about 2%.

“Now it’s zero. And it will probably go negative,” the professor said. “And that’s that’s why we will see a recession in 2023.”


visit this link https://www.cnbc.com/2022 .. eve-hanke.html
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25 comments
 

 1 day ago '04        #2
ItAlY2BkLyN 
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but they redefined what a recession is so we're all gravy

+17   

 24 hrs ago '09        #3
GREAT1NE  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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 ItAlY2BkLyN said
but they redefined what a recession is so we're all gravy

Right lol. We’ve technically been in one

According to a general definition of recession—two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP)—the U.S. entered a recession in the summer of 2022. The organization that defines U.S. business cycles, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), takes a different view.
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 24 hrs ago '04        #4
jaynasty 
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You don’t know you’re in a recession until you’re already in one.

These mfs aren’t gonna say, well guys today is the start of the recession. Prepare yourselves
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 23 hrs ago '17        #5
yousabitch 
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who gives a fu*k....recessions are not a bad thing it is just the way the economy resets and is part of the economic cycle it should happen every ten years or so we are long over due...
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 23 hrs ago '14        #6
strungout  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x7
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I ate like 20 dollars worth of food a few hours ago and I didn't even feel full or anything lol restaurants are charging more for less now basically

And I get that they are struggling but there was a time when 20 dollars would have had you good good
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 23 hrs ago '17        #7
yousabitch 
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 strungout said
I ate like 20 dollars worth of food a few hours ago and I didn't even feel full or anything lol restaurants are charging more for less now basically

And I get that they are struggling but there was a time when 20 dollars would have had you good good
Bro where did you eat? $20.00 will get you you full anywhere unless you went to a high end restaurant
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 23 hrs ago '16        #8
Homer Pimpson 
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get ready to buy

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 23 hrs ago '11        #9
Sin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x53
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 jaynasty said
You don’t know you’re in a recession until you’re already in one.

These mfs aren’t gonna say, well guys today is the start of the recession. Prepare yourselves
cardio already announced the recession lol


;t=G0pYTeP_cyWBhAO3lMMvhg
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 23 hrs ago '14        #10
strungout  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x7
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 yousabi*ch said
Bro where did you eat? $20.00 will get you you full anywhere unless you went to a high end restaurant
Went to this Vietnamese place , had 10 wings and 2 spring rolls...yeah I don't know what's wrong with me lol , them wings were kinda small though
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 23 hrs ago '17        #11
yousabitch 
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 strungout said
Went to this Vietnamese place , had 10 wings and 2 spring rolls...yeah I don't know what's wrong with me lol , them wings were kinda small though
sounds like a nice chunk of food though lol..you have the munchies bro?
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 23 hrs ago '14        #12
strungout  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x7
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 yousabi*ch said
sounds like a nice chunk of food though lol..you have the munchies bro?
Yeah I guess it was a nice chunk , anyone else would have probably been good, but lately i just been eating, definitely not the munchies but I did quit nicotine recently so that might have something to do with it .

I used to have a cigarette after every meal
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 23 hrs ago '12        #13
halochicken  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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Any educated people in here can explain this to me. how do you call a recession in such and such amount of months? What data predicts this? Are such and such companies losing money which will create massive layoffs?
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 23 hrs ago '17        #14
yousabitch 
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 strungout said
Yeah I guess it was a nice chunk , anyone else would have probably been good, but lately i just been eating, definitely not the munchies but I did quit nicotine recently so that might have something to do with it .

I used to have a cigarette after every meal
yeah ive heard people who quit cigs gain weight...watch that......good for you for quitting btw
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 23 hrs ago '19        #15
Silky Johnson 
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Recession is often defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction—declining real GDP.

^^^The definition of a recession since WW2^^^

We been in a recession 4 a while now. Dont let the Government try to spin it any other way.
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 22 hrs ago '04        #16
LordBlanco|M  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x2
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recession proof
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 22 hrs ago '21        #17
The jinx  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x6
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This is what happens when you have people like @ giving people financial and political advice from his tent at skid row while his husband @ passes out biden / harris stickers with their adopted mute son @
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 22 hrs ago '06        #18
OJ's_sword 
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I mean Feds just openly admitted that they wanna crash the housing market sooooooo yea......

 21 hrs ago '22        #19
BeatYoSelff 
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We've been in a recession. It will go deep into 2023 and we'll still be feeling effects well into '24.

Pay off any debts and build your capital. I've slowed down on investing last few months, the bottom has yet to come.


Last edited by BeatYoSelff; Today at 01:01 AM..
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 21 hrs ago '04        #20
J.BEEZY 
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sh*t yeah we been on a recession.
I can't look at my stocks or crypto right now
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 21 hrs ago '10        #21
lltreyll 
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Already bought the first dip and sold for a profit before this crash. If there isn't a December rally this year, you better not need that money for a long time.

 20 hrs ago '16        #22
JetLife  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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 strungout said
I ate like 20 dollars worth of food a few hours ago and I didn't even feel full or anything lol restaurants are charging more for less now basically

And I get that they are struggling but there was a time when 20 dollars would have had you good good
Realest sh*t in this thread.
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 19 hrs ago '18        #23
BrooklynDamien  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x2
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 halochicken said
Any educated people in here can explain this to me. how do you call a recession in such and such amount of months? What data predicts this? Are such and such companies losing money which will create massive layoffs?
The first part, what is a recession is subjective. The criteria used isn't being agreed upon. Doesn't really matter.

Are companies losing money? Yes. They are telling us this in their earnings reports. Fed ex just had one. They aren't able to raise prices effectively bc ppl are slowing down on shipping but they are still raising prices. It's not going to be good for them... Other companies like tesla still can raise their prices to stay ahead of inflation for now bc their customers are well off. The well off have to feel this before its over. Not the queen of England rich but the 3 car family, more than 3 bathroom family, international family vacation takers. They gotta feel it in their pockets and stop spending. The other ppl just feel it first...

The fed is reacting instead of taking the lead. They were trying not to crash the market when they should've just let it crash during covid. This monetary policy been going more than a decade. The longer they waited the worse it got and that's still til this day. They are just tightening. They haven't even stopped buying sh*t. Just slowed it up. It's fu*ked up. They are fu*king up.

The head of the fed, Jerome Powell, just said at the meeting he needs to see pain. That pain? Jobs lost and salaries reduced.

time stamp 1:00:00 watch to the end. It's only 18 mins left after that mark and it's dealing with all this.

And companies are already doing massive layoffs bro... there's threads on here about them ford letting go 3k employees, tesla, even though they are still raising prices cut like 10% of the ppl or some sh*t. Plenty of examples of companies laying ppl off. Gotta happen.
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 19 hrs ago '12        #24
halochicken  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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 BrooklynDamien said
The first part, what is a recession is subjective. The criteria used isn't being agreed upon. Doesn't really matter.

Are companies losing money? Yes. They are telling us this in their earnings reports. Fed ex just had one. They aren't able to raise prices effectively bc ppl are slowing down on shipping but they are still raising prices. It's not going to be good for them... Other companies like tesla still can raise their prices to stay ahead of inflation for now bc their customers are well off. The well off have to feel this before its over. Not the queen of England rich but the 3 car family, more than 3 bathroom family, international family vacation takers. They gotta feel it in their pockets and stop spending. The other ppl just feel it first...

The fed is reacting instead of taking the lead. They were trying not to crash the market when they should've just let it crash during covid. This monetary policy been going more than a decade. The longer they waited the worse it got and that's still til this day. They are just tightening. They haven't even stopped buying sh*t. Just slowed it up. It's fu*ked up. They are fu*king up.

The head of the fed, Jerome Powell, just said at the meeting he needs to see pain. That pain? Jobs lost and salaries reduced.
time stamp 1:00:00 watch to the end. It's only 18 mins left after that mark and it's dealing with all this.

And companies are already doing massive layoffs bro... there's threads on here about them ford letting go 3k employees, tesla, even though they are still raising prices cut like 10% of the ppl or some sh*t. Plenty of examples of companies laying ppl off. Gotta happen.

great explanation but like all great explanations it just leads to more questions. I'm just confused on companies not making money. I don't know everyone in the world, but I have yet to have a convo with anyone talking about spending less etc etc from my peers. so is the loss not from consumer spending but inflation of raw materials?
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 18 hrs ago '18        #25
BrooklynDamien  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x2
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 halochicken said
great explanation but like all great explanations it just leads to more questions. I'm just confused on companies not making money. I don't know everyone in the world, but I have yet to have a convo with anyone talking about spending less etc etc from my peers. so is the loss not from consumer spending but inflation of raw materials?
All good It's a great question. Thanks too. Salaries are up. 1.8 jobs available per 1 unemployed person, they say... Ridiculous ratio and part of that reason. Regardless of the reason, they are up.

Raw materials... we haven't seen the real sh*t yet bro... the cattle and chickens and whatnot that we will eat soon will cost a lot more. Why? It cost a lot more to feed and transport them. That's the same for every industry. No industry where those conditions got better... take a look in the gear section and see bros talking about the secondary market for sneaker releases and the tech section to see them talk about the abundance of chips and gamer computers etc. It's happening bro.

Ppl are still spending, sure. But it's slowed and has to slow more and a lot of that spending is credit. The fed keeps track of all of that...

And most companies are like tesla. They are making money still. But that's their money they wanna spend yo money lol they are still profitable. I think Facebook pulled 60 billion or some sh*t lol their stock is down 60% from its all time high last fall. 60 bill ain't enough to keep the stock up... the market thinks about tomorrow and not what you made today from yesterday's effort. The prices we end up at will reflect that.

The better place to look to see the real sh*t is the bond market though. That's the smartest of the smart money. The yield is currently inverted. You might've heard that recently. It's bad lol bond is a loan the government gets from you. You buy a bond and loan them bread. They pay you interest. A short term bond shouldn't be worth more than a longer term bond. But this is a free market based on confidence. More short term than long term confidence means the %s will invert. Ppl ain't buying the long term joints. That's where we are today and it happened last year briefly which was a harbinger for today and today is a harbinger for worse. Inversions = recession historically
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