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Aug 16 - Home builders says US is in a housing recession



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 1 month ago '22        #1
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Booda Sack  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x2
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Aug 16 - Home builders says US is in a housing recession
 

 
Builder sentiment in the market for single-family homes fell into negative territory in August, as builders and buyers struggle with higher costs.

The National a*sociation of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 6 points to 49 this month, its eighth straight monthly decline. Anything above 50 is considered positive. The index has not been in negative territory since a very brief plunge at the start of the Covid pandemic. Before that, it hadn’t been negative since June 2014.


“Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently elevated construction costs have brought on a housing recession,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

Consumer confidence in the housing market hits the lowest point in over a decade
Consumer confidence in the housing market hits the lowest point in over a decade
Home prices cooled at a record pace in June, according to housing data firm
Home prices cooled at a record pace in June, according to housing data firm
Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions dropped 7 points to 57, sales expectations in the next six months fell 2 points to 47 and buyer traffic fell 5 points to 32.

Despite higher costs for land, labor and materials, about 1 in 5 builders in August reported lowering prices in the past month in an effort to increase sales or limit cancellations. The average drop reported was 5%.

The biggest hurdle for buyers right now is affordability. Home prices have been climbing since the start of the pandemic, and the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage, which had hit historic lows in the first part of the pandemic, is nearly twice what it was at the start of this year. Home price growth has cooled somewhat in recent weeks, while mortgage rates have come down from highs.

“The total volume of single-family starts will post a decline in 2022, the first such decrease since 2011. However, as signs grow that the rate of inflation is near peaking, long-term interest rates have stabilized, which will provide some stability for the demand-side of the market in the coming months,” Dietz said.

Regionally, on a three-month moving average, builder confidence in the Northeast fell 9 points to 56, and dropped 3 points in the Midwest to 49. In the South it fell 7 points to 63, and in the West, where home prices are highest, it declined 11 points to 51

visit this link https://www.cnbc.com/2022 .. box=1660572058
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 1 month ago '13        #2
boobalo1  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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Bubbles popping. Houses in my neighborhood doubled from 2019…
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 1 month ago '15        #3
T rootz 
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We still building in our +55 areas... 3 brand new Multiplex community's most starting from the $500,000 - $2,000,000 with each community having 600+ units.... Plam beach is going crazy.
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 1 month ago '17        #4
Ifeellikekobe  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x8
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They full of sh*t. Build some houses at $200k then
+27   

 1 month ago '19        #5
GetYaCoinsKing  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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 T rootz said
We still building in our +55 areas... 3 brand new Multiplex community's most starting from the $500,000 - $2,000,000 with each community having 600+ units.... Plam beach is going crazy.
Oh yeah 55+ communities is where the money is at, Specially with inflation and most of these folks being on fixed income; Even if you rent it to them at market price you still are profiting as these mfs will mostlikely be there until their passing so its a win/win.
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 1 month ago '04        #6
bibbyboi 
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It's definitely not slowing down in my area.
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 1 month ago '17        #7
Ifeellikekobe  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x8
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 GetYaCoinsKing said
Oh yeah 55+ communities is where the money is at, Specially with inflation and most of these folks being on fixed income; Even if you rent it to them at market price you still are profiting as these mfs will mostlikely be there until their passing so its a win/win.
My grandmother lives in a 55+ community. They taking all the money and no care for their needs.
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 1 month ago '19        #8
GetYaCoinsKing  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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 Ifeellikekobe said
My grandmother lives in a 55+ community. They taking all the money and no care for their needs.
Pretty much because they know their tenants don't have a choice, Its either continue renting through them, Try buying a house which good luck with that or be homeless.
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 1 month ago '20        #9
Xiox  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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Greed
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 1 month ago '04        #10
d.c. supreme  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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 GetYaCoinsKing said
Oh yeah 55+ communities is where the money is at, Specially with inflation and most of these folks being on fixed income; Even if you rent it to them at market price you still are profiting as these mfs will mostlikely be there until their passing so its a win/win.
yessir. plus the baby boomer generation all currently or starting to retire and go on fixed income. $$$$$$$$$$$
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 1 month ago '04        #11
nitetrain8601  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x4
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Problem is, price of materials are up and housing prices are correcting themselves while interest rates stay climbing. You’re going to see a lot of abandoned homes in the next 18 months.

Builders can’t take a risk and are better off building rental units or waiting until the market seems to have mostly corrected itself. I know realtors who are telling their clients to rent their house rather than sell as they’re going to take a hit.
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 1 month ago '22        #12
Booda Sack  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x2 OP
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 nitetrain8601 said
Problem is, price of materials are up and housing prices are correcting themselves while interest rates stay climbing. You’re going to see a lot of abandoned homes in the next 18 months.

Builders can’t take a risk and are better off building rental units or waiting until the market seems to have mostly corrected itself. I know realtors who are telling their clients to rent their house rather than sell as they’re going to take a hit.
Bought my home in 2018 in a booming economy I can sell my crib now with 70k profit
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 1 month ago '06        #13
sunsetnVine 
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 Ifeellikekobe said
They full of sh*t. Build some houses at $200k then
Soon…
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 1 month ago '05        #14
projectd06 
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All our builders around here are still pumping them sh*ts out, not sure where this is at.
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 1 month ago '16        #15
Illogic  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x3
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Good Houses are overpriced right now i paid 500k for one of mine years ago now they want 8 for same the crib i wouldnt pay 8 for it
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 1 month ago '04        #16
killadre  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x2
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Literally got acres of new homes, condos, and town homes being built in my area. Cost to build is much higher but nothing slowing down.
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 1 month ago '10        #17
SecretAgentMan 
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In other news....water is wet
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 1 month ago '06        #18
bigkilla  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x2
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Where's all them dudes in that other thread agreeing that the definition to the word recession isn't correct?

layoffs happening at the biggest companies in the world, belt tightening at others, hiring freezes, real estate on a shaky road, economy shrunk.. but somehow the exact definition to recession is wrong.

 1 month ago '04        #19
jholla31 
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The real question becomes can people maintain a sufficient debt to income ration going forward in a period of time when the end of inflation seems to be nowhere in sight....

Will new home buyers coming into the market in the next 3 years be able to keep up? I don't see these guys selling their homes for cheaper if everything else is going up..
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 1 month ago '17        #20
Its 
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My only advice is start putting cash to the side....
You can come up for real on the next year or two
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 1 month ago '17        #21
S550  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x4
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 Ifeellikekobe said
They full of sh*t. Build some houses at $200k then
It’s not that easy lol

Unless you are building 900 sq ft micro
Homes

 1 month ago '04        #22
doczdaname  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x2
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Really? where I live they keep building sub-divisions and never stopped through 2020 till now and people are buying all of them. No halt in production and no halt in people buying homes so if we are in a recession then they have me fooled because I don't see it, atleast not around my area. sh*t is booming out here in cali.
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 1 month ago '16        #23
Boogersugar  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x18
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Housing's slowdown will CAUSE the recession. It will be the single biggest factor. Like 20 people eat off of a real estate transaction and they're drying up. The lower volume of home sales - not exclusive to new builds - means realtors, mortgage loan officers, appraisers, home inspectors, title company employees, underwriters, and many construction professionals will allllll be tightening their belts. And that is a lot of contagion that will spread.

Housing transactions are 15% of GDP. And they've already contracted in volume over 10%. And it's not over.

That having been said to paraphrase Warren Buffett... others are fearful, it's time to get GREEDY. I'm writing up below list offers on multifamily to close the year. I will find my motivated seller. And when this contraction causes more layoffs in 2023 I'm double dipping


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 1 month ago '06        #24
yumflip  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x2
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 Booda Sack said
Bought my home in 2018 in a booming economy I can sell my crib now with 70k profit
Depending on where you're at, that 70k profit will land you in a similar home in a lesser neighborhood. The buyers market is kinda misleading right now. Higher prices for sure, but not as many qualified buyers.

I'm still waiting for the mass pivot to less than 1000 sq ft homes. And smaller sq footage for all living spaces overall. Watching that Home series on Apple TV put me on to the way people in Hong Kong live. Those apartments are 500 sq ft or a little more or less. I don't know if Americans who grew up w/the idea of a 1 family home can change to something like that, but we need to.
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 1 month ago '20        #25
Xiox  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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There is a slow down because i see homes with for sale signs longer ?
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