seatownslayer said
Maybe in a city like this but in seattle It aint coming down ever.. sh*t went up super fast and there is still no where to live for new people.. it about supply and demand if there is no supply the price will stay high.. my girls condo went from 210 to 300 in a little more then a year.
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You might be right. Could be. But I don't think you are. I'm in Austin, TX one of the hottest markets in America as well. My home has gone from 230k to over 375k in a bit over a year. It's unsustainable. When we last had a housing crisis in 2008 the areas that went up the most went down the most. Areas that didn't see insane historically anomalous increases didn't see big downturns which makes sense intuitively.
The thing about supply is the constraints are loosening and people have been listing homes they would've listed last year if it weren't for covid fears, not wanting to have open houses, general uncertainty and fear, etc etc etc. Seattle is still in a low-supply point but I think it will ease when interest rates rise.
Lots of dummies have ARMs right now and when interest rates go up they'll have to sell because they will no longer be able to afford the payments. And they will have fewer buyers because higher interest rates mean higher monthly mortgage notes and that's what buyers actually pay attention to. More supply + fewer buyers is coming to every market in the US if we have as many interest rate hikes as we're projected to. Again, could be wrong but I don't see why any market that has seen crazy gains won't be subject to these issues.