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Nov 29 - Ray Dalio Says America’s Decline Will Upend Lives, Not Just Portfolios



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 2 months ago '11        #1
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Sin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x46
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Nov 29 - Ray Dalio Says America’s Decline Will Upend Lives, Not Just Portfolios
 

 
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The billionaire investor who built the world’s largest hedge fund paints a dire scenario in his new book

No empire lasts forever,” says Ray Dalio. Humble words for a man who’s built the world’s largest hedge fund, with a*sets in excess of $150 billion. But the billionaire founder of Bridgewater a*sociates, 72, isn’t talking about the empire he created and stepped down from managing as CEO in 2017. (Dalio remains Co-Chairman and Co-CIO.) Instead, the empire that worries Dalio is the one in which he resides: the United States.

“Right now, money and credit and how it’s behaving are affecting the financial markets, it’s affecting inflation,” says Dalio in an interview with Forbes as U.S. inflation has spiked to its highest rate in over 30 years.

America’s domestic issues and decline as the world’s leading superpower are more than simply a matter for debate to Dalio. They underpin the core thesis of his latest book, The Changing World Order: How and Why Nations Succeed and Fail, that comes out on November 30. In it, he builds the case that the confluence of rising U.S. debt and income disparities, along with America’s diminished influence, has put the country at risk of not just economic hardship but war. Specifically, he points to growing debt and near-zero interest rates that have led to a massive printing of money ($16 trillion of debt at negative interest rates this year, by Dalio’s estimates), increased conflict and polarization due to widening wealth gaps and China’s increased ability to challenge U.S. hegemony on the world stage.

Dalio believes there’s a 30% chance that the U.S. will enter into a major “civil-war-type” conflict within the next five years. While other countries face similar challenges, America looks especially vulnerable. “It’s very important that we deal with this now,” he says. “We can have a type of civil war or international war based on how we are behaving with each other and our financial conditions.” What’s more, the U.S. is not alone in facing this dire scenario.


“It’s very important that we deal with this now. We can have a type of civil war or international war based on how we are behaving with each other and our financial conditions.”
Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater a*sociates



Dalio has built his business and net worth, which Forbes estimates at roughly $20 billion, on figuring out where the world is going and designing investment strategies to profit from it. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson describes him as a “big thinker and brilliant academic disguised as an investment manager.” Moreover, Paulson adds, Dalio’s a*sessment of macroeconomic risks and strategies is often right. He famously made money during the 1987 stock market crash and predicted the 2008 financial crisis, which enabled his fund to outperform during that crash, too.

What’s different now is not just the scope of the problem but Dalio’s ability to amplify it. Instead of writing up his views on the global business landscape for an audience of clients who’ve bought into his fund and stand to profit from his investment strategy, Dalio is sharing them with the wider world. Thanks to his bestselling 2017 book Principles, Dalio has become something of a celebrity and cult hero to the millions of readers drawn to his leadership philosophy of “radical transparency.” As a result, Dalio’s new book could attract an audience far bigger than the usual fans of his macroeconomic missives.


“[He’s] a big thinker and brilliant academic disguised as an investment manager.”
Hank Paulson, former U.S. Treasury Secretary on Ray Dalio.



Those readers may find The Changing World Order to be both eye-opening and potentially frustrating—it is more an academic study versus investment playbook. While Dalio inspired readers with his life story and leadership philosophy in Principles, his new book raises alarm bells about problems for which there are no clear solutions. If Dalio has a clear strategy for how to invest and hedge risk in this environment, he’s not going to explain it here. After all, creating strategies to build wealth amid seismic global shifts is why companies like Bridgewater exist. Rather, Dalio’s modus operandi typically is to establish an economic framework (usually in the context of cycles or “the economic machine”) and then provide key broader principles on how best to navigate the path forward. Anyone who has read Dalio’s writing on the rise of populism in 2017 or his two-part missive on why capitalism needs to be reformed two years later will be familiar with this approach. If they’re hedge fund investors, they’re used to reading pieces that explain how a manager sees the investment landscape.

In this new book, Dalio offers a deeper analysis and some new tools to measure and navigate the risks. Dalio says he felt compelled to write a book because of how swifty the economic climate has changed. As co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater, he explains, “I need to make decisions now.” There’s also an altruistic instinct to educate people about what’s around the corner. Says Dalio: “I'm at a stage in my life where I'm passing along the most important things I've learned, so I decided to put it out as a book for that reason.”

Dalio has created a “Health Index” in the book that rates around a dozen nations on 18 different factors ranging from debt burdens and economic output to military strength and innovation. It’s the kind of tool that readers can use themselves to a*sess risks and form strategies. He plans to create a website for people to a*sess objective data in real-time, much like doctors do when evaluating patients.

Dalio is as much a student of history as science. As the title suggests, his a*sessment of the current threats to economic health comes from years of studying the rise and fall of great empires. The U.S. is not the first nation to experience rising debt levels and income inequality while facing diminished power and influence on the world stage. “The last time those three things happened was in the 1930 to 1945 period,” says Dalio. “When they happen together, it’s a very telling story.”

To a boy born in Brooklyn during the post-war baby boom that followed America’s success in World War II, the threat of devastating consequences isn’t simply a compelling investment scenario. It’s a call to action. Through his writing and conversations with leaders like former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Dalio hopes astute leaders and citizens can take action to stave off the worst outcome. The issues, after all, have been percolating for years. “It's high time we actually look at these things and take the warnings and deal with it,” he says.

As he has done for decades in writing about macroeconomic risk, Dalio is careful to clarify that the exact scope and timing of the risks he sees remain unclear. Much like a hurricane, he explains in the book, knowing the conditions for an economic storm and the signals that one is coming makes it easier to prepare and get out of harm’s way. “I’m not interested in making any more money,” he says. “I’m just trying to pass along now the things that have been valuable to me and to help others.”

One piece of advice on the safest hedge against what’s coming? “Not cash!,” he exclaims. In early 2020, Dalio caused a stir in Davos by saying “cash is trash” as people were pulling out of markets amid concerns that included a then-new coronavirus. Dalio’s argument then, as now, was to diversify across different a*set classes, currencies and markets. Betting big on one or two things is rarely a winning strategy.

“I worry, too many Bitcoin holders, they better be right that it’s Bitcoin and it’s not something else,” he says. “What you’re seeing is in all a*sets, you’re seeing it in real estate, stocks, gold, silver, Bitcoin, and so on. From all of that [economic] stimulation they have all gone up,” he says. In his view, many investors overweight U.S. a*sets at the expense of attractive alternatives. “If I were to give it in a nutshell, I’d pick countries [to invest in] that are earning more than they are spending so that they have a good income statement and balance sheet.”


“What you’re seeing is in all a*sets, you’re seeing it in real estate, stocks, gold, silver, Bitcoin, and so on. From all of that [economic] stimulation they have all gone up.”
Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater a*sociates



And if you want to know more, well buy the book. Dalio says it’s likely to be his second-last, as he plans to write one more book about economic and investment principles. “Once I get past that, I won’t have anything to say and I’ll be quiet,” says Dalio. Maybe so, but that doesn’t mean he’ll abandon his day job anytime soon. “I love the game I play—the markets.” While he wants to help improve the odds for continued growth in the U.S., Dalio knows there’s money to be made when you know how to play what comes next.

visit this link https://www.forbes.com/si .. h=3b58cae73c4f


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 2 months ago '17        #2
SPdaGOAT  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x6
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Wow a lot of gems in this post alone, I gotta remember to pick up this book this weekend. Good looking out OP.

What he said about Bitcoin is super facts. People fu*king around and selling a*sets for crypto, if the whales decide to collectively cash out one day, we might really see some wild sh*t

This was the craziest quote from this article tho

Dalio is as much a student of history as science. As the title suggests, his a*sessment of the current threats to economic health comes from years of studying the rise and fall of great empires. The U.S. is not the first nation to experience rising debt levels and income inequality while facing diminished power and influence on the world stage. “The last time those three things happened was in the 1930 to 1945 period,” says Dalio. “When they happen together, it’s a very telling story.”

Cant front my macroeconomics professor called a lot of this sh*t around 10 years ago.
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 2 months ago '11        #3
Sin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x46 OP
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 SPdaGOAT said
Wow a lot of gems in this post alone, I gotta remember to pick up this book this weekend. Good looking out OP.

What he said about Bitcoin is super facts. People fu*king around and selling a*sets for crypto, if the whales decide to collectively cash out one day, we might really see some wild sh*t

This was the craziest quote from this article tho

Dalio is as much a student of history as science. As the title suggests, his a*sessment of the current threats to economic health comes from years of studying the rise and fall of great empires. The U.S. is not the first nation to experience rising debt levels and income inequality while facing diminished power and influence on the world stage. “The last time those three things happened was in the 1930 to 1945 period,” says Dalio. “When they happen together, it’s a very telling story.”

Cant front my macroeconomics professor called a lot of this sh*t around 10 years ago.
what about the signs of the big whales selling their companies stock and holding cash?



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 2 months ago '17        #4
SPdaGOAT  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x6
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 Sin said
what about the signs of the big whales selling their companies stock and holding cash?



If you ask me for my opinion on this, this looks like they see the end of the American financial system as we know it and are getting ready for the next move

sh*t real spooky, 2022 shaping up to be a lot worse than the last two years
+24   

 2 months ago '11        #5
Sin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x46 OP
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 SPdaGOAT said
If you ask me for my opinion on this, this looks like they see the end of the American financial system as we know it and are getting ready for the next move

sh*t real spooky, 2022 shaping up to be a lot worse than the last two years
im defiantly scared and don't know how to prepare

I tried to hedge for the down fall of the American economy with Chinese ETFs, but Xi sabotaged those

and like the article states crypto isn't any safer
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 2 months ago '17        #6
SPdaGOAT  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x6
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 Sin said
im defiantly scared and don't know how to prepare

I tried to hedge for the down fall of the American economy with Chinese ETFs, but Xi sabotaged those

and like the article states crypto isn't any safer
Im not invested in it at all so answer this however, but what you think of forex? Like do you think its a viable option to live off of? Idk how I would even feel putting a lot of money into it tbh.

Land overseas might be one of the few good options right now provided you have capital. sh*t rough bruh
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 2 months ago '11        #7
Sin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x46 OP
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 SPdaGOAT said
Im not invested in it at all so answer this however, but what you think of forex? Like do you think its a viable option to live off of? Idk how I would even feel putting a lot of money into it tbh.

Land overseas might be one of the few good options right now provided you have capital. sh*t rough bruh
I know absolute nothing about forex, besides I think its currency trading platform thats

ive been meaning to get around to watching this


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 2 months ago '20        #8
Lebrown james 
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I love Ray dalio started reading his book "principles" a few weeks back and it's changed how I view investments and life in general. But one thing is for certain, he's been touting the decline of the US for a minute now especially when you take into consideration the rise of China as a superpower.
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 2 months ago '06        #9
imthatinfamous  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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this thread fully of narratives and platitudes put out there after the collapse of 07-08..not every bad economic downturn is a sign of some doomsday initiative, markets need a correction and reset too...
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 2 months ago '17        #10
Ymmot  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x5
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 imthatinfamous said
this thread fully of narratives and platitudes put out there after the collapse of 07-08..not every bad economic downturn is a sign of some doomsday initiative, markets need a correction and reset too...
Exactly.
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 2 months ago '17        #11
Obadiah1Verse18  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x21
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 OG Sean said
suck my fu*king d*ck

the only ones whose lives will be "upended" will be these wealthy billionaires hoarding everything and leaving table scraps for the 99%

power to the people
Shut your bi*ch a*s up, Esau.
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 2 months ago '17        #12
Obadiah1Verse18  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x21
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Anyway, they are about to bring out the central bank digital currency which this COVID scamdemic has made way for. They’ve already gotten a lot of the coins out of circulation with this manufactured ‘coin shortage’. Soon, you idiots will be taking the RFID microchip aka the Mark of the Beast to conduct your transactions.
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 2 months ago '04        #13
AkaiMakai 
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 imthatinfamous said
this thread fully of narratives and platitudes put out there after the collapse of 07-08..not every bad economic downturn is a sign of some doomsday initiative, markets need a correction and reset too...
every dog does have its day. we have been at the top for a while and if anything the pandemic did speed things up
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 2 months ago '16        #14
ghoti 
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Anyone who discounts the indicators point to an eventual collapse are setting themselves up for misery. When the collapse happens is a point of conjecture but will happen. A number of analysts, military personnel, etc. who are in the know have all been saying every empire has an expiration date. Some last longer than others but eventually the inner workings become disfunctional and the system eventually turns on itself. There is not going to be some outside force that does the damage, it is always internally where events unfold. Those who point to a collapse highlight a number of aspects that mirror other empires.

Prep your fam
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 2 months ago '15        #15
Prad Bitt 
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 imthatinfamous said
this thread fully of narratives and platitudes put out there after the collapse of 07-08..not every bad economic downturn is a sign of some doomsday initiative, markets need a correction and reset too...
You’re either very young or misremembering. That event if allowed to occur, which true capitalism dictates, would have been pure fu*kery like riotous domestic war type situation. The financial contagion was astonishing banks were tumbling and major industries were on the precipice you don’t recall just how many major companies restructured? People were either walking away from homes and cars or owning them without making payments for a year or more. The bailouts and subsequent QE to reinflate the bubble brought us here. Ultimately it’s poetic justice you made a wealthy nation off the backs of shackled humans and reneged on the deal to amend that wrong, fu*k em.
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 2 months ago '15        #16
donnyyy  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x7
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Eh

Once a means of exchange fails they'll use another.

That said things have changed. People are expecting another crash to happen soon.

Can't help but to think "those in charge" have brought this along. CEOs retiring, cashing out, they definitely are prepping for something.

I just thing in the end, it will backfire on THEM, not everyone else. Greed also has an expiration
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 2 months ago '17        #17
Its 
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 2 months ago '16        #18
PaperBoi 
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Richest dude in my state CT , straight financial genius

 2 months ago '10        #19
Account001 
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1. That long as post is just them pluging a book with 2 tidbits of knowledge
2. I plan on reading the book.

3. My guess is an internal civil war won't happen but you will prob see an Axis - Axis f*ght or an Alliance - Alliance f*ght
4. When investing look at the downside not the upside.
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 2 months ago '16        #20
Illogic 
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 2 months ago '17        #21
Ifeellikekobe  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x5
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These clowns never talk about how they rig the game in their fu*king favor. Purchasing politicians on both sides of the aisle. I bet this dude called up Joe Manchin. Yea that senator of a state with no billionaires, to bi*ch and complain about billionaire tax.

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 2 months ago '18        #22
DUCEDUCE  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x2
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Real talk boxden what financial policies can the US enact to get things back on course?
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 2 months ago '11        #23
Sin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x46 OP
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 OG Sean said
suck my fu*king d*ck

the only ones whose lives will be "upended" will be these wealthy billionaires hoarding everything and leaving table scraps for the 99%

power to the people
Usually when major economic downfall swings happens it’s the people at the bottom who get hurt the most

Historically when has the common man ever won in extreme market drops?


Last edited by Sin; 11-29-2021 at 10:44 PM..

 2 months ago '04        #24
TwinCaliber2kz 
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USA need a gofundme page to pay this debt down
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 2 months ago '17        #25
Smallville 
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Lmao we enrich China if we decide to tax imports from their and add actual American first subsidies for bringing companies and higher paying jobs back but we have a duopoly with these people trying to destroy us while enriching themselves from stocks also we need to do a real stock act and forbid them from investing while controlling the markets the fed employees too ain’t no telling how many government employees like the sec or irs and no jobs within hedge funds or anything wallstreet related improve the retirement and limit terms it’s that simple and yet ain’t nobody calling for it lmao they trading everyday or their family members are
+2   



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