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Sep 14 - America is short more than 5 mil homes, and builders can’t make up the difference



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 5 days ago '11        #1
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Sin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x38
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Sep 14 - America is short more than 5 mil homes, and builders can’t make up the difference
 

 
KEY POINTS
-Some 12.3 million American households were formed from January 2012 to June 2021, but just 7 million new single-family homes were built during that time.
-Single-family home construction is running at the slowest pace since 1995.
-PulteGroup just lowered its Q3 and full-year guidance for home closings, citing supply chain disruptions.


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Anyone searching for a home today knows full well the pickings are slim. The supply of U.S. homes for sale is near a record low, and the gap between supply and demand is widening.

The U.S. is short 5.24 million homes, an increase of 1.4 million from the 2019 gap of 3.84 million, according to new research from Realtor.com.

The U.S. Census found that 12.3 million American households were formed from January 2012 to June 2021, but just 7 million new single-family homes were built during that time.

Single-family home construction has suffered from a severe labor shortage that began well before the pandemic but was then exacerbated by it. Supply chain disruptions in the past year have pushed prices for building materials higher, and as pandemic-induced demand soared, prices for land increased as well.

While new household formation is actually slower than it was before the pandemic, homebuilders would have to double their recent new home production pace to close the gap in five to six years. A new household can be either owner-occupied or rented.

“The pandemic has certainly exacerbated the U.S. housing shortage, but data shows household formations outpaced new construction long before Covid. Put simply, new construction supply hasn’t been meeting demand over the last five years,” said Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale. “Millennials, many of whom are now in their 30s and even 40s, have debunked the industry’s ‘renter generation’ expectations.”

Household formation is when an individual moves out of a shared living situation.

Single-family home construction has been rising steadily since it bottomed in 2009 during the Great Recession. It is still not as high as it was just before the housing boom and is actually running at the slowest pace since 1995, according to the U.S. Census. The slower pace comes as the largest generation enters its typical homebuying years.

PulteGroup, one of the nation’s largest homebuilders, just lowered its Q3 and full-year guidance for home closings, citing supply chain disruptions.

“Despite the extraordinary efforts of our trade partners, the supply chain issues that have plagued the industry throughout the pandemic have increased during the second half of the year,” Pulte CEO Ryan Marshall said in a release. “We continue to work closely with our suppliers, but shortages for a variety of building products, combined with increased production volumes across the homebuilding industry, are directly impacting our ability to get homes closed to our level of quality over the remainder of 2021.”

Other builders are citing the same issues. Some, including Pulte, have said they are slowing sales themselves in order to keep up with their backlog of demand. As a result, stocks of the builders have been trading significantly lower over the past week.

Due to the shortage, prices for new and existing homes are rising at a record pace. For new construction, which has always come at a price premium, homes with a median value of $300,000, which is considered relatively affordable, represented 32% of builder sales in the first half of 2021, down from 43% during the same period in 2018.

Builders simply can’t afford to produce cheaper homes, given their rising costs.

“No matter how you frame the scenario, it will take a more meaningful shift in the pipeline to meet demand in the foreseeable future,” Hale said.

visit this link https://www.cnbc.com/2021 .. tudy-says.html
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79 comments
 

 5 days ago '11        #2
Sin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x38 OP
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all of you home and property owners are about to come up big

the value is about to go up
+51   

 5 days ago '06        #3
bigkilla  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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No shot.

The US has enough homes.. there's just too many going into foreclosure and banks sitting on them, foreigners buying them and never even visiting the homes, and homes that were so run down that the owners abandoned them.

Can't tell me there's a shortage when there's entire blocks in places like Flint and Detroit that are empty... buildings in NYC where apartments are owned by foreign investors that have never even entered the building.

If the US really wanted to fix the problem they could.. they won't... but they could.

I think this is all BS talk just to have them raise the price on homes.
+107   

 5 days ago '08        #4
tdnupe3 
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One major reason is because the price of materials is absolutely ridiculous right now.

I'm waiting for prices to stabilize to start on a project I've wanted to do for close to a year now.
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 5 days ago '04        #5
jsmooth-117 
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 bigkilla said
No shot.

The US has enough homes.. there's just too many going into foreclosure and banks sitting on them, foreigners buying them and never even visiting the homes, and homes that were so run down that the owners abandoned them.

Can't tell me there's a shortage when there's entire blocks in places like Flint and Detroit that are empty... buildings in NYC where apartments are owned by foreign investors that have never even entered the building.

If the US really wanted to fix the problem they could.. they won't... but they could.

I think this is all BS talk just to have them raise the price on homes.
While i didn't read the article, conventional wisdom tells me that the homes that are "needed" are in areas of upward mobility. Homes where parents work and are raising their family, ya know, setting roots.

A home somewhere is not satisfactory enough if you're trying to live somewhere that home isn't.

No one is moving to Flint to start a life and raise a family. The same cant be said for certain areas of Detroit.

But my point is (which I deduced from the thread title) is that affordable homes are needed in specific areas and those affordable homes are not coming anytime soon. Because the cost of building materials and the lack of home builders, people are in for a hard time. It would be easier to ice skate uphill.
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 5 days ago '06        #6
bigkilla  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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 jsmooth-117 said
While i didn't read the article, conventional wisdom tells me that the homes that are "needed" are in areas of upward mobility. Homes where parents work and are raising their family, ya know, setting roots.

A home somewhere is not satisfactory enough if you're trying to live somewhere that home isn't.

No one is moving to Flint to start a life and raise a family. The same cant be said for certain areas of Detroit.

But my point is (which I deduced from the thread title) is that affordable homes are needed in specific areas and those affordable homes are not coming anytime soon. Because the cost of building materials and the lack of home builders, people are in for a hard time. It would be easier to ice skate uphill.
In terms of affordability.. that's where these banks and foreign investors become an issue where they buy, hold, and live entire homes empty but will pay above asking. Blackrock during the pandemic supposedly was one of the major factors behind single family homes flying off the shelves.

I understand the issue with Flint and Detroit, but you can't tell me with the US's growing homeless population something can't be done to manage that either.

Also regarding single family homes, I remember reading an article a while back how builders are trying to move away from that design as well to build more buildings over single family homes. There's a bunch of articles and I can't find the one I read but if you search for things like single family home suburbs flaw and etc.. articles will pop up.

Here's an article about Biden pushing for buildings v.s single family homes



There's also talks about 40 year mortgages? 40 year mortgages? I believe they've been positioning themselves for a while and using this "we don't have the supplies to build" when all they've been doing is setting up longer mortgages, pushing for buildings v.s building homes and etc..
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 5 days ago '11        #7
Sin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x38 OP
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 bigkilla said
No shot.

The US has enough homes.. there's just too many going into foreclosure and banks sitting on them, foreigners buying them and never even visiting the homes, and homes that were so run down that the owners abandoned them.

Can't tell me there's a shortage when there's entire blocks in places like Flint and Detroit that are empty... buildings in NYC where apartments are owned by foreign investors that have never even entered the building.

If the US really wanted to fix the problem they could.. they won't... but they could.

I think this is all BS talk just to have them raise the price on homes.
Hedge funds definitely buying them up





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 5 days ago '06        #8
imthatinfamous  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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CNBC doing their best to raise home prices
+15   

 5 days ago '19        #9
aaf192020 
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America is definitely not short of housing!!! I worked at a homeless shelter for 3 years. We are short of affordable housing especially in big cities.

There's more than enough homes for people.
+24   

 4 days ago '17        #10
Jdog168  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x8
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Builders don't want to build 12-1500 sq ft homes when they can build bigger houses for more profit. If they really wanted to make a dent in the housing shortage they'd ban foreign investors from purchasing homes for at minimum 2 years and reassess at that point to see where we are.
+24   

 4 days ago '04        #11
regularjoe  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x3
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Housing market fu*king sucks if you’re buying.
+21   

 4 days ago '11        #12
Sin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x38 OP
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 aaf192020 said
America is definitely not short of housing!!! I worked at a homeless shelter for 3 years. We are short of affordable housing especially in big cities.

There's more than enough homes for people.
Are there jobs outside of the cities that pay enough to afford those homes


Last edited by Sin; 09-14-2021 at 11:06 AM..

 4 days ago '19        #13
aaf192020 
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 Sin said
Are there jobs outside of the cities that pay enough to afford those homes
That's a question for the CEOs not me.
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 4 days ago '11        #14
Broseph Stalin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x5
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 Jdog168 said
Builders don't want to build 12-1500 sq ft homes when they can build bigger houses for more profit. If they really wanted to make a dent in the housing shortage they'd ban foreign investors from purchasing homes for at minimum 2 years and reassess at that point to see where we are.
THIS, along with taxing Americans who are on their 3rd, 4th homes and limiting or straight up banning these private Hedge funds who can afford to outbid average buyers by tens of thousands of dollars
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 4 days ago '04        #15
bibbyboi 
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 Jdog168 said
Builders don't want to build 12-1500 sq ft homes when they can build bigger houses for more profit. If they really wanted to make a dent in the housing shortage they'd ban foreign investors from purchasing homes for at minimum 2 years and reassess at that point to see where we are.
Definitely that second part.

I know for where I live, the main problem is the shortage in lumber. But banning foreign investors would definitely help a ton. Hawaii needs to ban any non-resident from buying here for at least a decade, but I don't know how they could do that constitutionally.
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 4 days ago '06        #16
sunsetnVine 
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 Sin said
all of you home and property owners are about to come up big

the value is about to go up
yup.... the house i sold for 450 is now worth almost 600... and the house im in now is now worth a milli plus.... both went up for no fu*king reason (nothing i would pay for tho on either account). If these values hold.. people are fu*ked in the long run.... and insurance will go up hella high...
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 4 days ago '06        #17
sunsetnVine 
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 Jdog168 said
Builders don't want to build 12-1500 sq ft homes when they can build bigger houses for more profit. If they really wanted to make a dent in the housing shortage they'd ban foreign investors from purchasing homes for at minimum 2 years and reassess at that point to see where we are.
shyyyyyyyyt i c the houses are getting smaller and more expensive.... .

and people still buying them....

SFH's the size of townhomes going for as more than the bigger homes built not even a year or two ago..
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 4 days ago '11        #18
Sin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x38 OP
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 sunsetnVine said
yup.... the house i sold for 450 is now worth almost 600... and the house im in now is now worth a milli plus.... both went up for no fu*king reason (nothing i would pay for tho on either account). If these values hold.. people are fu*ked in the long run.... and insurance will go up hella high...
Yeah i saw people complaining houses they recently bought at the inflated prices came with an inflated tax bill

They were expecting the same bill as the previous homeowner
+6   

 4 days ago '17        #19
Lazy 
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Property owners are the new upper class

I currently own three properties and want to expand to 8 by 2030
+12   

 4 days ago '06        #20
sunsetnVine 
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 Sin said
Yeah i saw people complaining houses they recently bought at the inflated prices came with an inflated tax bill

They were expecting the same bill as the previous homeowner
that too... the fix is def. in.. specially after the shortall last year cuz of rona.

states/counties are on some fu*k it... your value is worth more and here is a higher bill to go with it.. pay us!!!
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 4 days ago '07        #21
yola  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x56
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The U.S. Census found that 12.3 million American households were formed from January 2012 to June 2021, but just 7 million new single-family homes were built during that time.
Household formation is when an individual moves out of a shared living situation.
this is fu*kin retarded and it's pretty funny how these two parts are separated by several paragraphs

a person moving out of a shared living situation doesn't mean they automatically need a house, this is a disingenuous metric

it's like saying X number of people became vegetarians, but we don't have the apples to keep up with the demand, implying that all vegetarians eat, like or want apples
+5   

 4 days ago '04        #22
ItAlY2BkLyN 
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 bigkilla said
There's also talks about 40 year mortgages? 40 year mortgages? I believe they've been positioning themselves for a while and using this "we don't have the supplies to build" when all they've been doing is setting up longer mortgages, pushing for buildings v.s building homes and etc..
Man that's like an 8 year car loan

 Sin said
Yeah i saw people complaining houses they recently bought at the inflated prices came with an inflated tax bill

They were expecting the same bill as the previous homeowner
I found this real nice spot on river front just below a resivoir in the mountains. Zoned for 9 cabins. Was really wanting to put a fishing lodge on it. But it hadn't been a*sessed since the 50s the taxes on it would be absolutely insane.
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 4 days ago '06        #23
bigkilla  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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 ItAlY2BkLyN said
Man that's like an 8 year car loan



I found this real nice spot on river front just below a resivoir in the mountains. Zoned for 9 cabins. Was really wanting to put a fishing lodge on it. But it hadn't been a*sessed since the 50s the taxes on it would be absolutely insane.
It's just been aligning them to raise the prices on homes and extending the mortgages to say "hey! look! the monthly is not that different"

Imagine buying a crib at 30 and finishing at 70 years old
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 4 days ago '11        #24
Sin  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x38 OP
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 ItAlY2BkLyN said
Man that's like an 8 year car loan



I found this real nice spot on river front just below a resivoir in the mountains. Zoned for 9 cabins. Was really wanting to put a fishing lodge on it. But it hadn't been a*sessed since the 50s the taxes on it would be absolutely insane.
jersey city did a tax a*sessment in 2018 for the first time since 1988

$36,066 tax hike: 203 Washington St. (middle), 5,972 square feet

Current a*sessment: $175,000

New a*sessment: $3,068,900

Current taxes: $13,650

New taxes: $49,716



people were tight when they got the bill
+4   

 4 days ago '05        #25
bklyn 
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Plenty of homes in America. Its never a bad idea to own some real estate.
+5   



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