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Jul 29 - GOP Could Retake the House in 2022 Just by Gerrymandering Four Southern States



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 2 months ago '07        #1
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Jul 29 - GOP Could Retake the House in 2022 Just by Gerrymandering Four Southern States
 

 

A new study finds that Republicans could gain up to 13 seats in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.

Before Georgia voted for Joe Biden, the biggest upset in recent state politics came when Democrat Lucy McBath became the first Black person to represent Newt Gingrich’s former congressional district.

Georgia’s Sixth District, home to the affluent northern suburbs of Atlanta, was long a bastion of deep-red Republicanism, represented by Gingrich for 20 years.

But that changed in 2018, when college-educated white voters shifted their allegiance to the Democrats and joined with an influx of Black, Latino, and Asian Americans who’d moved to the suburbs.

They teamed up to elect McBath, a political novice who had turned to activism after her 17-year-old son, Jordan Davis, was murdered by a white man in Florida in 2012, and decided to run for Congress after the Parkland high school shooting in early 2018.

“The work was calling me,” she told Mother Jones that year.

McBath’s victory, which helped Democrats retake the House of Representatives, exemplified Democratic inroads in formerly red states like Georgia and the new power being exercised by communities of color in fast-diversifying Southern states.

But those gains could quickly be wiped away—and districts like McBath’s eliminated—by GOP dominance of the next redistricting cycle, which will begin when the Census Bureau releases nationwide demographic data by August 16.

Republicans could pick up anywhere from six to 13 seats in the House of Representatives—enough to retake the House in 2022—through its control of the redistricting process in Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas alone, according to a new analysis by the Democratic data firm TargetSmart that was shared exclusively with Mother Jones. Republicans need to gain just five seats to regain control of the House.

The Republican redistricting advantage goes far beyond those four states: They’ll be able to draw 187 congressional districts, compared to 75 for Democrats. (The rest will be drawn by independent commissions or divided state governments.)

But those states are at the highest risk of extreme gerrymandering, according to the Brennan Center for Justice, and they have 94 seats, roughly a fifth of the House. Republicans could draw as many as five new GOP congressional districts in Florida alone, giving them control of the House by redrawing maps in just one state.

They’re also likely to gain two to three seats through new maps in Texas, one to three in Georgia, and one to two in North Carolina, according to TargetSmart.

The bulk of the attention on voting rights this year has focused on the wave of new laws in GOP-controlled states intended to make it harder for Democratic constituencies to cast a ballot, by doing things like rolling back voting by mail and shortening early voting periods.

These new voting restrictions could certainly swing a close election, but the ultimate partisan effects are unknown, whereas the new redistricting maps enacted by Republicans will have a devastating and surgical impact on Democratic representation, voting rights advocates say.

“There’s no question Texas, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina are enough to give Republicans the number of seats they need to win back the House,” says Michael Li, a redistricting expert at the Brennan Center.

GOP members of Congress have already admitted that this is their plan to win back power in 2022. “We have redistricting coming up, and the Republicans control most of that process in most of the states around the country,” Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) said at the Faith and Freedom conference in June.

“That alone should get us the majority back.”

Democrats’ best hope to prevent a gerrymandering bloodbath is to pass the For the People Act, the sweeping democracy reform bill that passed the House in March but was blocked by a GOP filibuster in June.

The bill, also known as HR1, has been in the news for its provisions to ban the types of state-level voting restrictions that sent Texas Democrats fleeing to Washington earlier this month to beg Congress to pass the act.

But arguably more significant is its proposal to end partisan gerrymandering.

“Absent the passage of HR1,” says TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier, “the GOP is poised to gerrymander their way to a House majority.”

Time is running out for Senate Democrats to act. States could put new maps in place by early fall, and those maps will govern congressional elections for the next decade.

“There is a fundamentally increased focus on redistricting than there was in 2011, and yet as we talk about the For the People Act, people are not talking about the gerrymandering components and the importance of them,” says Eric Holder, the former attorney general under Barack Obama who in 2017 founded National Democratic Redistricting Committee to combat GOP gerrymandering efforts.

Holder’s group estimates that gerrymandering could net Republicans 11 to 16 seats in Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas—higher even than the TargetSmart forecast.

The For the People Act would ban partisan gerrymandering by requiring independent commissions to draw congressional districts, as well as invalidating existing maps that have the intent or effect of “unduly favoring or disfavoring” one political party over another.

Even if it’s too late to set up independent redistricting commissions before new districts are drawn, the ban on partisan gerrymandering—along with requirements in this law that prevent communities of color from being diluted—would make it much easier to challenge skewed redistricting maps in court.

Though the Supreme Court ruled in 2019 that the federal courts could not review partisan gerrymandering, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that “the Framers gave Congress the power to do something about partisan gerrymandering in the Elections Clause.”

A stripped-down version of the For the People Act proposed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) eliminated some of the voting protections from the original version of the bill but included the ban on partisan gerrymandering.

This revised measure, which is expected to be formally introduced in the coming days, may have a better shot at passing the Senate, especially if moderate Democrats like Manchin are willing to create an exemption to the filibuster for this bill and allow passage with a simple majority. (So far, Manchin has said he opposes this exemption.)

“At some point we’re going to get to a binary choice between protecting our democracy and protecting an arcane Senate procedure,” Holder says of the filibuster. “At the end of the day, you’re not going to get 10 Republicans [to support the For the People Act]. This is something Democrats will have to pass.”

But that legislation will only make a difference on redistricting if enacted before the new maps take effect—giving Democrats a matter of weeks to act.

“Even Joe Manchin talks about banning partisan gerrymandering,” says Li. “Everyone recognizes there is problem that needs to be solved. What’s frustrating is they don’t understand this problem is not something that needs to be solved in the future—it’s happening now.”

According to the New York Times, White House officials have told voting rights advocates they believe Democrats can “out-organize voter suppression”—in other words, they believe they can counteract the new voting restrictions and replicate the high turnout from 2020 in the absence of new federal legislation by focusing on registration, get-out-the-vote efforts, and making sure all votes are counted.

But extreme gerrymandering can negate these efforts by allowing Republicans to essentially pick their own voters in a remarkably targeted and durable way. Over the past decade, Democratic state legislative candidates have routinely won more votes than Republicans on a statewide basis in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina—but the GOP retained control of state legislative chambers for the entire decade.

It took an unprecedented anti-Trump wave in 2018, which is not likely to be repeated any time soon, combined with court rulings striking down gerrymandered congressional districts in Texas, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, for Democrats to retake the House in 2018.

“There’s some sentiment you can out-organize voter suppression,” says Li. “You can help people get the IDs they need to vote. You can’t out-organize gerrymandering. You can’t out-organize the dismantling of a multiracial district in the Atlanta suburbs. Once it’s gone, it’s gone.”

Holder agrees. “Gerrymandering is not a question about organizing,” he says. “You can get people to the polls, they can vote in record numbers, and if you allow unfair racial or partisan gerrymandering to occur, that can neuter the turnout.”

Indeed, if everyone voted the same way as in 2020, Republicans would take back the House simply based on their control of the redistricting process, according to research by Democratic data scientist David Shor.

Banning partisan gerrymandering is the most important thing Democrats can do to prevent Republicans from retaking power, Shor says, more than policies expanding access to the ballot such as automatic voter registration, which are good for democracy but have little to no partisan impact.

“This one part of the bill is probably about five times more important than the rest of the bill combined,” he says of the gerrymandering sections of the For the People Act.
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 2 months ago '07        #2
yola  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x56 OP
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i don't think Dems understand the amount of work needed to be done to win next year, Q is poised to take the house back, the party with high turnout is going to see historic turnouts

meanwhile, Dems let them gut the election efficiency and probably won't be able to stop this

make no mistake, all these alleged republicans who claim they don't like where the party's at are fu*king lying, they will vote republican next year and they will vote Trump if he makes it to the finals
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 2 months ago '17        #3
Ymmot  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x5
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I think the Republicans will re-take the house and then we'll get back to nothing getting done. Their whole plan is to do absolutely nothing.
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 2 months ago '17        #4
DavidTheMan 
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Yep, its chess not checkers.
GOP controlled the Houses and Senate of I believe 40 so states in a census year.
DNC put all their eggs into that mail inballot sh*t, and now this is the push back.

Dont be surprised in a few years if state elections switch from popular votes to votes by county as well.
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 2 months ago '17        #5
Ymmot  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x5
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 DavidTheMan said
Yep, its chess not checkers.
GOP controlled the Houses and Senate of I believe 40 so states in a census year.
DNC put all their eggs into that mail inballot sh*t, and now this is the push back.

Dont be surprised in a few years if state elections switch from popular votes to votes by county as well.
Yeah, the republicans are going to do everything they can to supress votes going forward as more and more of the population turns liberal.
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 2 months ago '20        #6
Xiox  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
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Will the dems accomplish anything in the next 16 months
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 2 months ago '04        #7
gh3tto 
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if dems dont take voting rights seriously and dont f*ght gerrymandering hard enough it could happen

on the other hand its possible dems mobilize well and message that their opponents are literal insurrectionists



its a year and 3 months away there might be some damning treason exposed in between then

 2 months ago '17        #8
Ymmot  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x5
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 gh3tto said
if dems dont take voting rights seriously and dont f*ght gerrymandering hard enough it could happen

on the other hand its possible dems mobilize well and message that their opponents are literal insurrectionists



its a year and 3 months away there might be some damning treason exposed in between then
That is true, they need to get real serious with these treason cases and tie trump and mccarthy to it.
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 2 months ago '06        #9
sunsetnVine 
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 Xiox said
Will the dems accomplish anything in the next 16 months
no.... and they don't want too... they just want ur money...

Repubs out here getting shyt done right or wrong.....

and op right... and all teh responses... its over for dems after this last go around.

question is what do they really have in store for us when they consolidate the power.... my guess is they will go after the illegals again.. and cut social services completly..

dark times for those expecting anything significant from either party....
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 2 months ago '06        #10
sunsetnVine 
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 Ymmot said
I think the Republicans will re-take the house and then we'll get back to nothing getting done. Their whole plan is to do absolutely nothing.
if you clocking a grip.... them tax breaks are nice... for the self employed..

catz was eating under trump... if ur talking about what they will do for minorities... "nothing" is the answer from both camps...
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 2 months ago '15        #11
RIPrjacks23 
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 sunsetnVine said
if you clocking a grip.... them tax breaks are nice... for the self employed..

catz was eating under trump... if ur talking about what they will do for minorities... "nothing" is the answer from both camps...
Most Americans aren't "clocking a grip" ....the rich were getting richer as per usual & that trend continues under Biden. This sh*t isn't real.
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 2 months ago '17        #12
Naga Sadow  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x20
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Hopefully Cooper holds out in NC but we have a lot of old confederate flag waving troglodytes who still think science is witchcraft in the NC house.
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 2 months ago '06        #13
sunsetnVine 
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 RIPrjacks23 said
Most Americans aren't "clocking a grip" ....the rich were getting richer as per usual & that trend continues under Biden. This sh*t isn't real.
oh its real... and it will continue....


like an abusive relationship

 2 months ago '20        #14
Tweezy12  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x6
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They will have the house and Senate
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 2 months ago '17        #15
Ymmot  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x5
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 sunsetnVine said
if you clocking a grip.... them tax breaks are nice... for the self employed..

catz was eating under trump... if ur talking about what they will do for minorities... "nothing" is the answer from both camps...
The GOP/trump gave you a loan out of future tax returns, if you think that's eating I feel bad for you. Educate yourself. The illsuion of getting more money is all it took for you?
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 2 months ago '17        #16
Naga Sadow  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x20
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 sunsetnVine said
if you clocking a grip.... them tax breaks are nice... for the self employed..

catz was eating under trump... if ur talking about what they will do for minorities... "nothing" is the answer from both camps...
I pay $30k more a year in taxes with increasing every year thanks to Trump's tax plan so how the hell are those tax breaks nice?

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 2 months ago '17        #17
Ymmot  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x5
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 Naga Sadow said
I pay $30k more a year in taxes with increasing every year thanks to Trump's tax plan so how the hell are those tax breaks nice?

Yeah, I pay a lot more in taxes ever since trump's tax cuts. I don't know who these broke people are that suddenly started making more money because of the tax cuts for the 1%.
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 2 months ago '16        #18
foshoVoodoo  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x46
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Evidence democrats and republicans is kkk. Tranny joe could make a executive order to make gerrymandering highly illegal with a minimum sentence of 20 to life. But he gonna be like it's nothing I can do and play victim. We know same ole good kkk bad kkk routine we've seen forever

 2 months ago '16        #19
foshoVoodoo  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x46
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 Naga Sadow said
I pay $30k more a year in taxes with increasing every year thanks to Trump's tax plan so how the hell are those tax breaks nice?

All the news has to do is repeat something 3 times. And he believes it. He thinks the forgotten won the election
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 2 months ago '06        #20
sunsetnVine 
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 Ymmot said
The GOP/trump gave you a loan out of future tax returns, if you think that's eating I feel bad for you. Educate yourself. The illsuion of getting more money is all it took for you?
not talking that PPP trash bruh

Bruh what?! they take 35% of my $$$ every year... and i get some back in jan..... im talking self employed tax breaks etc.. s-corp/llc stuff... there is no illusion... and im putting a ton in other vehicles broadie..

dems talking about raising taxes on capital gains etc etc it is what it is..
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 2 months ago '06        #21
sunsetnVine 
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 Naga Sadow said
I pay $30k more a year in taxes with increasing every year thanks to Trump's tax plan so how the hell are those tax breaks nice?


you investing at all? pre tax? retirement? IRA? real estate? Other companies?

Do you own real estate? IF you are paying that much your not payinig attention... "they" figure out ways to shield their $$$... if you can pay that much in taxes you can. take some time to figure out how to put it away... hell there are even life insurance plans that double as stock investment vehicles..



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