4,352
 

Seinfeld $500 million, The Big Bang Theory $1 billion? Streaming is facing a problem


 


section  x1   |  0 bx goons and 1 bystanders Share this on Twitter       Share this on Facebook
 

section tv / movies
  
 4 weeks ago '05        #1
3881 page views
87 comments


Micheal C. Will  41 heat pts41
space
avatar space
space
$33,892   Props total: 37606 37606
Seinfeld $500 million, The Big Bang Theory $1 billion? Streaming is facing a problem
 

 
The numbers are enough to make you think it’s 1995 and George is first getting mad at Jerry for breaking their pact.

This week, Netflix paid a reported $500 million for streaming rights to all 180 episodes of “Seinfeld.” A day later, Warner Media, looking to beef up its imminent HBO Max service, paid a reported $1 billion for streaming rights to the nearly 300 episodes of “The Big Bang Theory.” This came on top of the estimated $425 million the company already paid for “Friends.”

And all of this comes on the heels of Comcast’s $500 million purchase of “The Office” for its new NBC Universal streaming service, named Peacock.

The money will certainly make some studios rich and a*sure fans the shows will exist online, somewhere, for the foreseeable future. But it ignores a fundamental question: How exactly are these shows valued?

More important, it ignores the fact that nobody seems to know the answer.

“It’s the biggest problem people aren’t talking about: We have no actual information about what creates or reduces churn,” said Dan Rayburn, an expert on streaming media technology. “So we have no way of knowing how much a show is really worth.”

The problem, Rayburn and others say, is that the profit-and-loss statement is out the window, being replaced by … nobody knows.

The value of classic shows was once easily quantified, via the syndication model. There was practically a formula. A buyer calculated the ratings in first-run and repeats. Then they looked at how much ad money a show thus rated could garner. Then they agreed to prices accordingly.

The equation was simple: You wanted to sell enough ads to justify your cost. It didn’t always work out, of course. But there was a road map.

Streaming now, though, appears to be a total gamble. How do you measure the value of a show to a streamer? The number of people who signed up for the service specifically because of that show? Well, that’s probably not very many, at least who are documentable. What about the general luster a top-tier comedy hit accrues back to a streaming brand? Sure, but how exactly do you measure that, let alone put a dollar figure on it?

Yet the dollar figures are indeed enormous. To give a sense of scale, just over 20 years ago, TBS shocked the industry with a $200 million syndication deal for “Seinfeld.” Four years ago, the numbers were considered equally giant when Hulu paid Sony $160 million for the comedy. Netflix’s number is more than three times that — without any ads to defray the cost.

“Where’s the business model? What’s the argument to business affairs that says any of these shows, even ones that people binge a lot, is worth it?” said a Hollywood veteran who has worked extensively in syndication, speaking on condition of anonymity so as not to jeopardize industry relationships. (At least Peacock and HBO Max are paying sister companies. Netflix is not.)

It’s one thing, the person noted, for new content to command sky-high prices — like overall creative deals Warner made with J.J. Abrams and Netflix sealed with Kenya Barris, Shonda Rhimes and Ryan Murphy, all of which totaled at least $100 million. Those are for a slate of new shows, with theoretically high upside. These buys are for old shows — proven, yes, but with a cultural moment and mass viewership well behind them. (Disney and Apple, incidentally, remain the outliers; they’re among the few not joining the classic-TV buying frenzy.)

Making the problem worse is that nobody really knows how to define what a binge-worthy show is in the first place.

“Big Bang” does well in reruns on TBS, but will it stream well? “Seinfeld” has long been a 10 and 11 p.m. television powerhouse, but does that mean people will want to watch it repeatedly on-demand?

“Seinfeld is better artistically and infinitely more influential and generally more culturally important than Friends,” wrote culture pundit Adam Sternbergh, who has covered both shows. “It is not remotely, however, as binge-friendly. Not even close.” He said the distinction was that the show was “innovative and hilarious and brilliantly constructed and spiky" but unlike “Friends” had “no hugging, no learning.”

The shows that are most repeatable — if Netflix’s pronouncements are accurate, “Friends” and “The Office” — do have likable characters you mainly just really want to hang out with, almost more than you’re interested in their ultimate fates. (That’s one reason “Big Bang” seems like it might, at least theoretically, fit into this group.) But likeability alone hardly seems enough to give you repeatability. As Sternbergh notes, hitting the sweet spot, in which people want to watch a show over and over again, each episode interchangeable with the next, is extremely difficult.

With so little information about whether a show will work, the answer for streaming services simply may be to just spend a lot on a major hit — any major hit. After all, HBO Max and Peacock need something notable to offer at launch.

“I think Warner and Comcast are just moving a thousand miles an hour, buying whatever they can no matter the cost just so they can go to consumers with brand names,” Rayburn said. Netflix, for its part, then simply needs to counter the competition.

In a new study, the research group Reach3 found that just 20 percent of consumers would “absolutely subscribe to Disney+” — a service that already has all the franchises and name recognition these competitors are seeking. Just 7 percent said they would subscribe to Apple TV+.

That puts Warner Media, Comcast and even Netflix at a disadvantage, paying ever-escalating costs for shows that may not be watched and wouldn’t necessarily drive subscriptions if they were. Like Jerry and the pact, it might not be long before some of them think twice about shaking any hands.

visit this link https://www.washingtonpos .. s-big-problem/

The stars from these shows are eating for real.

Syndication money, now streaming

image
+11   



best
worst
87 comments
 

 4 weeks ago '05        #2
bqstudios  10 heat pts10
space
avatar space
space
$2,943   Props total: 6535 6535
smart people thinkin too much into sh*t. its not hard to know seindfeld , the big bang and the rest of the shows mentioned are some of the biggest dam shows ever on tv. How do you not know the value of these Huge shows.

Any streaming service that has any of these shows on their platform will make alot of money. period.
+21   

 4 weeks ago '17        #3
Jdog168  41 heat pts41
space
avatar space
space
$2,044   Props total: 6827 6827
I’m curious what the roi is on these shows...
+25   

 4 weeks ago '16        #4
Aztlan  143 heat pts143
space
avatar space
space
$15,940   Props total: 44313 44313
Aint watch a single one of the shows listed.
+51   

 4 weeks ago '04        #5
King Kusanagi  36 heat pts36
space
avatar space
space
$9,317   Props total: 5110 5110
 Aztlan said
Aint watch a single one of the shows listed.
Came here to echo the same sentiments. fu*k all them shows...
+13   

 4 weeks ago '07        #6
Cambury  40 heat pts40
space
space
space
$40,138   Props total: 17058 17058
Big bang is some trash
+46   

 4 weeks ago '16        #7
Proveone 
space
space
space
$3,038   Props total: 7963 7963
All those shows are extremely big in Asia. This is a global play, these purchases aren't about North American markets


+37   

 4 weeks ago '17        #8
THExTAKEOVER 
space
space
space
$441   Props total: 2101 2101
Where the black shows getting this much??

Then again do they even green light shows that don't show stereotypical black folk.
+4   

 4 weeks ago '17        #9
TheFreakyRobber  15 heat pts15
space
avatar space
space
$2,786   Props total: 7627 7627
 Aztlan said
Aint watch a single one of the shows listed.

BIG FACTS!!!!

Never watched a second of Seinfeld,Friends or Big Bang Theory.
+4   

 4 weeks ago '12        #10
Gramz  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x1
space
avatar space
space
$23,825   Props total: 31630 31630
My boy Jerry chillin' like

I will forever be able to watch Seinfeld.
+17   

 4 weeks ago '13        #11
IamDaGawd  4 heat pts4
space
avatar space
space
$8,611   Props total: 3741 3741
Big bang is some corny a*s sh*t

And his little mini f*g**t with the puncable face

Young Sheldon horrible slapstick comedy
+10   

 4 weeks ago '17        #12
CJ Schwarz  82 heat pts82
space
avatar space
space
$4,494   Props total: 23658 23658
Larry David somewhere like

+12   

 4 weeks ago '05        #13
Fresh  1038 heat pts1038
space
avatar space
space
$45,895   Props total: 39085 39085
....Holla At Me About Martin, Fresh Prince, etc. Get A Check Like These Other Shows.
+20   

 4 weeks ago '17        #14
Jdog168  41 heat pts41
space
avatar space
space
$2,044   Props total: 6827 6827
According to this Big Bang Theory makes 1+billion per year

+3   

 4 weeks ago '05        #15
THEINFAMOUS  21 heat pts21
space
avatar space
space
$49,914   Props total: 19274 19274
Big Bang & Friends are 2 of the least funny shows I’ve ever seen in my life
+28   

 4 weeks ago '17        #16
lucifershammer  29 heat pts29
space
avatar space
space
$6,544   Props total: 32485 32485
 THExTAKEOVER said
Where the black shows getting this much??

Then again do they even green light shows that don't show stereotypical black folk.
Those shows have international appeal like dude said.

That's leverage a lot of black shows don't have
+6   

 4 weeks ago '13        #17
batmanwithprep  207 heat pts207
space
avatar space
space
$10,853   Props total: 14288 14288
People paying streaming services to watch the same sh*t they been seeing for decades... I don't understand it. If I like something that much I usually just spring for the box set. With digital streaming the biggest draw for me is original content.
+14   

 4 weeks ago '16        #18
postemupndunkit  8 heat pts8
space
avatar space
space
$8,533   Props total: 30254 30254
 Fresh said
....Holla At Me About Martin, Fresh Prince, etc. Get A Check Like These Other Shows.
I just want all the episodes of living single
+5   

 4 weeks ago '09        #19
messy marv stan  topics gone triple plat - Number 1 spot x5
space
avatar space
space
$76,544   Props total: 138185 138185
how the fu*k will they figure out the alleged viewership of these streams. is it music stream sh*t where 1600 streams is 1 alleged sale


big bang theory is not funny

isnt it in season 37

 4 weeks ago '19        #20
drnarcisse 
space
avatar space
space
$301   Props total: 812 812
 THExTAKEOVER said
Where the black shows getting this much??

Then again do they even green light shows that don't show stereotypical black folk.
Whats a black show? Its all white jewish executives running everything
+1   

 4 weeks ago '19        #21
drnarcisse 
space
avatar space
space
$301   Props total: 812 812
 Gramz said
My boy Jerry chillin' like

I will forever be able to watch Seinfeld.
Forever maaaan. I even put it on when im in colombia. Its in spanish but fu*k it, i still tune in. Copped the entire boxset awhile back on ebay
+1   

 4 weeks ago '04        #22
tdm2000  5 heat pts5
space
avatar space
space
$2,293   Props total: 935 935
Folks really watch the Big Bang Theory like that?
+2   

 4 weeks ago '05        #23
Avenger772  15 heat pts15
space
avatar space
space
$1,510   Props total: 636 636
They have to have data on this somewhere. Because dropping 500 milltion to a 1 billion dollars without any data showing that they will make their money back is nuts.

At the same time, with as many new shows that pushed out every year, how many people are signing up for services to just watch a show that's been over for 15 years? When you could just buy the DVDs for one price and own them forever.
+4   

 4 weeks ago '06        #24
Be Easy  3 heat pts3
space
avatar space
space
$3,563   Props total: 8625 8625
its crazy

they made 100's of millions on 3 different platforms with seinfeld
+2   

 4 weeks ago '15        #25
Mexicanelvis  9 heat pts9
space
avatar space
space
$1,848   Props total: 4165 4165
How the fu*k did bing bang theory get so big man I swear no one thinks that sh*ts actually funny
+11   



Sign me up
 
 

yesterday...


most viewed right now
+33online now  37
Image(s) inside Yearbook Picture
106 comments
2 days ago
@wild'ish
most viewed right now
online now  23
Video inside Fortnite Season X Ends putting everyone inside a black hole.
63 comments
1 day ago
@games
most viewed right now
+39online now  22
I gotta give TI credit he almost got exposed and boided
122 comments
1 day ago
@hiphop
most viewed right now
online now  13
Video inside Former Jet life Affiliate Who was beefing with Curren$y , Succeed The P..
100 comments
1 day ago
@hiphop
back to top
register register Follow BX @ Twitter search BX privacy