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If Jon Gruden is going to blow this entire thing up, are Amari Cooper & Derek Carr next?


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 2 months ago '07        #1
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theFREAK 4441 heat pts4441
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If Jon Gruden is going to blow this entire thing up, are Amari Cooper & Derek Carr next?
 

 


When Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch arrived in 49er land, everyone expected what was coming. A total rebuild. A blowup. They were in the gutter. They were at the bottom and the only place to go was up.

The team had little talent, no quarterback (it was obvious early they were moving on from Colin Kaepernick) and needed a complete overhaul. Other than DeForest Buckner, and potentially Jaquiski Tartt, they didn’t have a young core player in his early- to mid-20s. They needed a lot of help. It was clear what direction they would have to go.

The Raiders were different. When they hired Jon Gruden, it felt completely opposite. The owner talked about attempting to win big in Oakland before they left for Las Vegas. The new coach spoke about the admiration he had for his young star players. It didn’t feel fake. We all agreed. The team had young studs at key positions. Of course Gruden wanted to coach guys like Derek Carr, Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper.

That core three was the talk of the NFL 12 months ago. Everyone wanted to coach them.

Then Mack’s holdout turned into a trade and everything changed. Many are still shocked 12 days later. I know Denver Broncos star pass rusher Von Miller falls under that category.

But even with Mack gone, the Raiders still looked loaded on offense with high-priced talented players. Premium offensive linemen (Kelechi Osemele, Rodney Hudson and Gabe Jackson), a star young wide receiver (Cooper) and a max quarterback (Carr). But after losing 33-13 Monday at the Coliseum to the Los Angeles Rams, and looking completely lifeless in the second half, would it be crazy to ask if Gruden will stay the course?

If he’d trade Mack, who is safe on this team? Gruden even said this week, “The reality is we’re building our team. … We’re going to try to build the Oakland Raiders into a great championship team. It might not happen this week. It might not happen this month.”

He is in no rush to make this thing happen. In fairness to him, why would he be? Time is on his side. And he clearly transitioned, my guess is sometime during training camp, to a mindset that this team was nowhere close to winning big. But after trading Mack, isn’t everything on the table? So if they are going to rebuild over the next six to eight months, how would they go about doing that?

Amari Cooper

What is up with this guy? How did he go from looking like a future All-Pro to invisible so quickly? Honestly, I’m not sure; it’s a major head-scratcher. So the question is: what could the Raiders get in a trade?

“I’d start at a two, but would probably end up giving a one,” one NFL scout said in a text.

“Hypothetically speaking, I think a ton of teams would give up first-round picks for him,” said another executive.

Despite going through the worst stretch of his career, I do believe Cooper still has a ton of value. He just turned 24 years old. He had 18 touchdowns in his first three seasons. To put that in context, Brandin Cooks had 20. Sammy Watkins had 17. Both guys got massive money after Year 4. Watkins had eight touchdowns last year, while Cooks had 13, so Cooper still needs to produce. But some of it is out of his control. It’s not like he’s not getting open. Or he can’t still run. Check out these two stats.

Amari Cooper averaged 3.61 yards of separation per Derek Carr throw, per @SportradarUS, the eighth-best average in Week 1 among 69 starting receivers. Jordy Nelson right behind him at ninth at 3.59.

Among the 100 wide receivers calculated this week by @SportradarUS' Next Gen stats, Amari Cooper's average top speed Monday night of 17.5 mph ranked sixth in the NFL, just behind Tyreek Hill (17.7). Jordy Nelson, however, ranked 100th at 9.2 mph.

Now listen, I am not advocating trading Cooper. His upside is too great. But we have to face reality. Who in the hell would have imagined Gruden trading Mack when he took over the job? There is another similarity with Mack and Cooper — they have the same agent in Joel Segal. Cooper clearly doesn’t have the same leverage, but why would negotiations be any easier? With guys like Cooks and Watkins breaking the bank, you know the Cooper asking price is going to be high. If Gruden didn’t want to pay Mack, why would we think he’d be willing to “overpay” Cooper? It’s not like Cooper is going to give them a hometown discount.

Let’s just say the Raiders get off to a terrible start this season. For argument’s sake, they go 1-4. Why wouldn’t he entertain trading Cooper? Just completely start over. Get a first-round pick, have three heading into the 2019 draft. One that looks to be loaded with young star wide recievers. Since Mack got shipped out, this can’t be discounted.

Offensive linemen

Another reason the current rebuild is a tad bizarre is this unit. Only four teams in the NFL have allocated more salary cap space to their front five players. No team pays their two offensive guards more money. Only six centers average more than Rodney Hudson ($8.9 million a year) and he signed his deal in 2015. They also invested a first-round pick in Kolton Miller.

Obviously the Raiders are not going to trade or cut Miller any time soon. It’s Gruden’s first draft pick, and despite having a lot of question marks in the draft, he’s looked good so far as a pro. But what about the other four guys? While I doubt any of these players would be traded during the year — you need them to play games — it wouldn’t shock me to see three or four new pieces next year up front with Miller.

Osemele will be 30 years old this offseason, so that doesn’t help his trade value. Neither does his $10.2 million cap number. While his dead money is zero in 2019, I think a team would be more likely to just let the Raiders cut him and then attempt to sign him for a much smaller number than strike a trade. While he is not the same player he was two years ago, he is still a very solid starter. And guards are hard to find. I just don’t see a team giving up any sort of draft pick of value to acquire this player. Not with that cap number. Luckily the Raiders can get out of this contract for nothing. I’d bet on him being cut this offseason.

Jackson, who is two years younger than Osemele, and makes $3 million less, would be much easier to trade. I think the Raiders could recoup a third-rounder (what they paid for him) and get his money off their books next spring. He would immediately start for every team in the NFL and gives them flexibility with his contract. He is a valuable a.sset.

Hudson is the Raiders’ best lineman. He’ll be 30 years old this offseason, heading into his contract year, and still has value. If he goes to another Pro Bowl this year, I do think the Raiders would be poised to get a solid mid-round pick for him this offseason. The Raiders don’t have his replacement on the roster, but could use a draft pick, something Gruden is clearly bullish on acquiring, for a center at a much smaller price tag. I could see a lot of playoff-level teams calling if Gruden puts him on the market next spring.

Donald Penn, who played very well Monday night, is probably good as gone this offseason. Gruden drafted Brandon Parker in the third-round this April, and you know he’s going to want him on the field sooner than later. Penn’s dead cap in 2019 is just a little over $2 million. It’s hard to trade a 36-year-old player who makes $8.35 million, even if he can play both tackle spots. But the writing is on the wall: Gruden will be able to save a lot of money either cutting or trading these four this offseason.

Derek Carr

I do believe Gruden likes Carr. It is the main reason he took the job. He has said this multiple times. But saying something and actually it are doing are two separate things. We’ve seen Gruden say one thing and then do another.

Carr was terrible Monday night. He looked skittish and rattled in the pocket. All three interceptions were bad. Especially the first two. I’m not selling my Carr stock just yet, but I’d be lying to say there aren’t some levels of concern. And if you and I can see it, I imagine Gruden’s confidence wavered a little. We’ve seen in his short time back, his mind can change quickly. He loved Mack, then he was gone. He traded a third-rounder for Martavis Bryant, cut him, then brought him back a week later. You never know with Gruden. He can sour on any player at a moment’s notice.

Carr’s contract is interesting. His cap hit is only $22 million in 2019. It’s $21.5 million in 2020. His dead cap starts at $7.5 million, and goes down $2.5 million a year until 2021. It’s actually very cap friendly for a starting quarterback who has Pro Bowl talent. And is young.

We’ve seen the quarterback market in the past. Bad players get good money, average starters get traded for second-rounders. If Gruden wanted to, I think he could get a first-rounder in the offseason for a healthy Carr, even if this year is a dumpster fire for the young signal-caller. He’s proven to have a high upside. To bring teams back late in games. To have success for a team that has a million issues. He’d only be 28 years old. And his contract is not that crazy. I do believe his market would be strong.

And if you could get a first-round pick for Carr and Cooper this offseason, that would give Gruden four first-round picks heading into the draft, combined with an enormous amount of cap room if they moved on from the offensive linemen. So while I’m not advocating trading Cooper or Carr just yet, we can’t pretend it’s not a possibility. What’s to keep Gruden from doing this?

Reggie McKenzie? We know Gruden doesn’t listen to him.

Mark Davis? It’s clear he gave Gruden the keys to run the franchise.

With Gruden in charge, everything is on the table. Nothing can be discounted. That’s not really arguable at this point. And nothing makes a true rebuild more possible than by exploring and potentially trading every a.sset you have. So hold on Raiders fans, the Mack trade may have only been the start of what’s to come.



Last edited by theFREAK; 09-13-2018 at 09:01 PM..

28 comments for "If Jon Gruden is going to blow this entire thing up, are Amari Cooper & Derek Carr next?"

 2 months ago '04        #2
mac58 226 heat pts226
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Carr and Cooper are the 2 worst players in the NFl..if you take into consideration all factors..salary , expectations, performance etc. . .
+5   

 2 months ago '10        #3
sho 2010 226 heat pts226
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sportsbook top 10
He trying to break Carr down and build him back up the way he wants him.




sportsbook 235 - 138 STRK: 2 w in a row WIN PCT: 63% 3 (+1) 
  Career: | Aug 16: 46-19, Rank #73 | Aug 15: 721-351, Rank #22 | Aug 14: 382-213, Rank #25 | Aug 12: 11-10, Rank #658 | Aug 11: 16-7, Rank #133 *
+3   

 2 months ago '09        #4
TriniSoldier 71 heat pts71
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gotta build coopers value up first and that's not looking too good
+1   

 2 months ago '04        #5
!!! 302 heat pts302
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Gruden needs to realize that these young millenial players are soft AF. The last thing they want is to be called out in the media. This isn't 2001 and you're not dealing with veteran GOATS like Jerry RIce and Tim Brown.
+4   

 2 months ago '18        #6
Uncle Jun 3 heat pts
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Amari aint the problem.


Carr just sucks balls.
+6   

 2 months ago '06        #7
Stackz 7 heat pts
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Carr 2 1st
Cooper 2 1st

Hella picks
-11   

 2 months ago '04        #8
spunkyXL 44 heat pts44
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Cooper ain’t that nice though

 2 months ago '17        #9
Ifeellikekobe 85 heat pts85
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I'm getting a chip Kelly type vibe.
+3   

 2 months ago '07        #10
theynd 30 heat pts30
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 Stackz said
Carr 2 1st
Cooper 2 1st

Hella picks
Nobody giving 2 1st for carr
And definitely not 2 for cooper
+7   

 2 months ago '08        #11
BuffaloSouldier 1 heat pts
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OAK aint getting sh*t for Cooper and if Carr don't bounce back he hit a mean lick.

 2 months ago '16        #12
HoodrichMike 
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Midas well

 2 months ago '05        #13
MP 55 heat pts55
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 Stackz said
Carr 2 1st
Cooper 2 1st

Hella picks
Madden franchise wouldnt even let that happen
+5   

 2 months ago '12        #14
44wade 304 heat pts304
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sh*t for all the bread they gotta give the rest of the nfl for the move, least they could do is some picks on the house.

 2 months ago '15        #15
drose1985 33 heat pts33
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 Uncle Jun said
Amari aint the problem.


Carr just sucks balls.
Since the injury Carr been gun-shy and seems to have restrictive movement in pocket. Not showing confidence in mechanics. Almost 2 years since injury , so hopefully the rust will start to wear off.
+3   

 2 months ago '07        #16
Bkjj11 3943 heat pts3943
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Sign a hc for 10 years. Got rid of the their best player lol. You think this cat not gonna go after his own QB? Lol
+2   

 2 months ago '04        #17
biscuit 106 heat pts106
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When you have a 10 year contract, you think long term instead of win now.

That can make you take for granted what you have now, instead of taking advantage of it.

I think that's EXACTLY what happened with Gruden and only Carr is fair game. Amari stays.

 2 months ago '07        #18
theFREAK 4441 heat pts4441 OP
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 drose1985 said
Since the injury Carr been gun-shy and seems to have restrictive movement in pocket. Not showing confidence in mechanics. Almost 2 years since injury , so hopefully the rust will start to wear off.
In Derek Carr’s last 20 games or so in the NFL he has sustained a broken leg, broken finger and a partially broken back.

This is his 5th year in the NFL, the dude has Ricky Bobby syndrome, he’s traumatized from being hurt and he’s scared to extend any play, let alone hold the ball long enough to take a hit, we saw it last year and it seems to have carried over to this season as well.

This convo has been going on for over a year now, he is scared of taking a hit and getting hurt. It’s real life and you’re holding the team hostage.

This is his 5th year in the league and he’s out here playing like a timid 7th round rookie.

Carr has all the physical tools to be elite, it’s all mental at this point.
+4   

 2 months ago '04        #19
MosDefinition 19 heat pts19
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 !!! said
Gruden needs to realize that these young millenial players are soft AF. The last thing they want is to be called out in the media. This isn't 2001 and you're not dealing with veteran GOATS like Jerry RIce and Tim Brown.
So players back then were ok with being called out in the media

FOH

 2 months ago '15        #20
itsddashrock 4 heat pts
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Gruden is overrated and won the Superbowl with Tony Dungy's players.

 2 months ago '15        #21
414mvp 
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Carr is an average QB without special effects this is who he is his arm does not wow me pocket presence awareness sh*t. He is an average qb that’s it period

 2 months ago '04        #22
jsmooth-117 14 heat pts14
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 theFREAK said
In Derek Carrs last 20 games or so in the NFL he has sustained a broken leg, broken finger and a partially broken back.

This is his 5th year in the NFL, the dude has Ricky Bobby syndrome, hes traumatized from being hurt and hes scared to extend any play, let alone hold the ball long enough to take a hit, we saw it last year and it seems to have carried over to this season as well.

This convo has been going on for over a year now, he is scared of taking a hit and getting hurt. Its real life and youre holding the team hostage.

This is his 5th year in the league and hes out here playing like a timid 7th round rookie.

Carr has all the physical tools to be elite, its all mental at this point.
Well, he needs to retire then because thinking too much while playing this game will get you hurt more than just going out on the field and balling out.

 2 months ago '15        #23
drose1985 33 heat pts33
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 theFREAK said
In Derek Carrs last 20 games or so in the NFL he has sustained a broken leg, broken finger and a partially broken back.

This is his 5th year in the NFL, the dude has Ricky Bobby syndrome, hes traumatized from being hurt and hes scared to extend any play, let alone hold the ball long enough to take a hit, we saw it last year and it seems to have carried over to this season as well.

This convo has been going on for over a year now, he is scared of taking a hit and getting hurt. Its real life and youre holding the team hostage.

This is his 5th year in the league and hes out here playing like a timid 7th round rookie.

Carr has all the physical tools to be elite, its all mental at this point.
This

 2 months ago '05        #24
JimDinO77 18 heat pts18
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They will officially be Gruden’s Las Vegas Raiders..... the team I grew up on is dead... they’ll get a bunch of draft a.ssets and auction their players away

 2 months ago '16        #25
MHP Trotty 462 heat pts462
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 MosDefinition said
So players back then were ok with being called out in the media

FOH
Players in the past were used to hearing their coach try to break them. It was some kind of way of psychology to get the most out of them.

The millennial guys nowadays didnt experience much of any of that. Cause the minute you challenge one of these players as early as JV football its autonatically taken as disrespect. Today the player now wont tolerate disrespect from a coach, and if you get enough of them feeling that way theyll get you fired.
-1   

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