ESPN: Projecting top 10 PGs for 2013-14

most viewed right now
 137
Dec 11 - The bubble is here: People taking out mortgages to cop bitcoins
160 comments
@news
most viewed right now
 102
Image(s) inside New IG PIcs of Cocain.Lorraine
94 comments
@thotsdimesetc
most viewed right now
 85
Whoo Kid says 50 Cent used to be out here beatin up random drug dealers
98 comments
@hiphop
most viewed right now
 60
Image(s) inside Stoner slut Nani -- would fu-k 4 weed
54 comments
@thotsdimesetc

section   (0 bx goons and 1 bystanders) Share this on Twitter   Share this on Facebook
 

Props Slaps
 4 years ago '11        #1
8387 pageviews
125 comments


maxnn 129 heat pts129
space
avatar space
space
$12,180 | Props total: 1034 1034
ESPN: Projecting top 10 PGs for 2013-14
 

 

1. Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 15.9

This might be the Year of Chris Paul, if the Miami Heat falter a bit in the regular season or MVP voters grow tired of rubber-stamping LeBron James' name at the top of their ballots. With the Clippers poised to build upon last year's breakout season and challenge for the top seed in the West, it could come down to a Paul versus Kevin Durant battle for the coveted Maurice Podoloff Trophy. Paul has finished in the top five of the voting four times and as high as second. Although ATH sees a near replica of Paul's 2012-13 WARP, it's still a figure that will garner lots of MVP chatter.

And why wouldn't ATH see Paul churning out the same season? At 29, he's squarely in his prime and his individual winning percentages the past two seasons (.740 and .739) nicely illustrate just how consistent he is. Paul doesn't use as many possessions as he did in his top seasons in New Orleans, but every other facet of his game has remained intact. Last season, Paul shot a career-low 32.8 percent from 3-point range, although he offset that by doing more damage inside the arc. He has shot as high as 40.9 percent from deep in his career, and, if he has a fluky good-shooting campaign, it could put him over a .600 true shooting percentage for the first time in his career. In fact, ATH sees a regression in the 3-point rate, bringing Paul up to a .600 TS% on the nose. With so many weapons around him -- Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, Jared Dudley, J.J. Red!ck, Matt Barnes, Reggie Bullock -- it will be up to Paul to orchestrate the most high-powered offensive attack he's been a part of to date.



2. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.7

By the time the MVP voting results were released during the playoffs, Westbrook had been knocked out by a knee injury, and, unfortunately, that's probably what we will remember most from his 2012-13 season. Overlooked at the time was the fact that Westbrook finished ninth in the voting despite ranking third in WARP. Although Westbrook's value to the Thunder was apparently overlooked when the ballots were completed, it was abundantly clear when he was absent in the postseason. ATH isn't forecasting a decline for Westbrook this season as much as a regression, and the distinction is important. Regression, in a statistical context, simply means moving toward average. It can be a positive or negative effect, yet many people take the term as a pejorative.

Westbrook took a huge leap last season, and, like Derrick Rose in 2011-12, he's likely to come back to earth just a little bit. ATH sees Westbrook maintaining his roughly 33 percent usage rate of the past two seasons. Given some possible shortages on the Oklahoma City bench, it could climb even higher depending on how many of his minutes come with Kevin Durant off the floor. If so, Westbrook's tepid efficiency could slide into the danger area.



3. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.4


On a per-possession basis, ATH sees Irving bypassing Westbrook as the second-best point guard in the NBA. In general, NBA players experience the most growth in their early 20s, and Irving will be barely 22 by the time the 2013-14 postseason rolls around. His revamped Cavaliers might well be a part of the proceedings. ATH sees a growth in Irving's efficiency inside and outside the arc, resulting in a soaring true shooting percentage of .574. That's all while using the same portion of Cleveland's offense as the other young Cavaliers grow around him. The three-win leap in WARP is doable, but it certainly would help if Irving can make it through a season healthy. After two seasons, his career high in games played is just 59.



4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 10.7


Curry jumped from 4.7 WARP to 15.8 last season, but of course his health was the driving force in that quantum leap. Curry's winning percentage the past two seasons has been virtually identical: .665 and .669. He'll turn 26 this year, so chances are he has established his level of play, giving him a lower ceiling than someone like Irving. However, that level of play is still really impressive. You can set your watch by Curry's 3-point shooting, but last year he actually shot worse inside the arc than outside it. ATH sees a regression in the right direction in that regard, but a concurrent one in the wrong direction in Curry's turnover rate. If Curry can continue his improvement in ball protection, his bottom-line value will rival that of the non-Paul class of point guards.



5. Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 9.9


With the change in talent around him, Williams will be one of the most intriguing players to watch in the coming season. In his best years in Utah, Williams was an a.ssist machine, but, as a Net, he initially took on a heavy scoring load and his efficiency dropped off the map. Last season, with Brooklyn's roster improved, Williams' usage rate returned to previous levels, and his shooting percentages recovered accordingly. However, his a.ssist rate was his lowest since his rookie season. Williams' turnovers also were down, so he simply had the ball less. With so much talent and so many alpha personalities on the new Nets, Williams can either be more of a cog in the machine or he can become its operator. Given the on-court proclivities of his new coach, Jason Kidd, I'm going to guess it's going to be the latter. If Williams can return to his days of double-digit a.ssists, it will be a sign the new mix in Brooklyn is working.



6. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.5


ATH sees Conley's 2012-13 season as a career campaign, but he's not likely to regress much. The biggest uptick in his game last year was shot selection, with a 5 percent increase in the portion of his possessions that ended with a 3-point attempt. That kind of wisdom, once gained, is not easily lost.



7. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.3


Forecasting games played always is tough, and the formula for doing so leaves Rose with just 61 games in his projection. That's what happens when a guy misses 109 regular-season games over two seasons. His winning percentage is tabbed at .607, down from the .679 he put up in his MVP season of 2010-11. ATH, like the rest of us, believes Rose has plenty to prove in the coming season.



8. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1


Lowry has put up right around 8.0 WARP in each of the past three seasons. He's in his prime and remains underrated. Could some younger guards behind Lowry climb over him on the value ladder? Sure. There are a number of point guards with higher ceilings, but few who have demonstrated such a consistent level of play.



9. Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1


Lawson is a classic example of the usage/efficiency nexus. His usage rate has increased in every season of his career, and his true shooting percentage has declined. Just as important, though, his a.ssist rate has steadily climbed even as his turnover rate has dropped. This season, ATH sees all those various elements coming together as Lawson steps into his prime.



10. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8


There is a school of thought that Lillard entered the NBA fully formed and that, as outstanding as he was in his rookie of the year campaign, Lillard is as good now as he's ever going to be. This is the season we begin to find out whether that's true. ATH projects that Lillard will take a significant step forward, with progress in shot selection and especially on the defensive end.

The next five: Kemba Walker, John Wall, Tony Parker, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio.

It's a point guard league right now, so there are some big names that slip outside the top 10. Rubio, who ranks 15th at 6.5 WARP, would rate as the No. 6 shooting guard, for example. So these are actually solid ratings for the up-and-coming Walker and Wall, even though they are both dinged for a combination of high usage rates and low shooting percentages.

Parker's standing represents a slip, but he'll turn 32 during the playoffs next season. That's a rough age for a guard historically speaking, and Parker's forecast sees a regression to what he was before his spike the past two seasons. He's still at 7.1 WARP, which put him in the top 10 of every other position except power forward.

Edit: Rondo would have been #10 if he was going to play a full season



visit this link NBA - Projecting the top 10 point guards by WARP for 2013-14 - ESPN


Last edited by maxnn; 07-29-2013 at 08:34 PM..

125 comments for "ESPN: Projecting top 10 PGs for 2013-14"

 4 years ago '04        #2
DERRTY CHYBO 12 heat pts12
space
avatar space
space
$11,716 | Props total: 787 787
mike conley over rose
 4 years ago '12        #3
Trapaveli 74 heat pts74
space
avatar space
space
$6,771 | Props total: 2690 2690
n*ggas really took TP out of the top 10

In what world will Lowry, Conely, Lawson, Lillard, or Williams be better then him next year.


Last edited by Trapaveli; 07-29-2013 at 07:34 PM..
 4 years ago '11        #4
Urbanchill 5 heat pts
space
avatar space
space
$7,410 | Props total: 1408 1408
lmao list is a joke for so many reasons
 4 years ago '08        #5
nattidred 16 heat pts16
space
avatar space
space
$4,380 | Props total: 1 1
Kyrie already bypassing westbrick as the 2nd best pg

the young goat is just getting started

john fall nowhere to be found
 4 years ago '06        #6
O Nasty 96 heat pts96
space
avatar space
space
$20,419 | Props total: 288 288
ppl not gone read the warp and all that sh*t in the article

killa
 4 years ago '12        #7
BlackBreesus 60 heat pts60
space
space
space
$8,335 | Props total: 8 8
Damn Jrue Holiday cant even get consideration? With no shooters are decent players in philly had 8 a.ssist per game. I could easily see him like a better offensive Rondo with Gordan, Davis, Anderson, and Tyreke with 9-11 a.ssist per game career highs. Plus monty lets his Point guard dominate the ball.
 07-29-2013, 07:42 PM         #8
typicalblackman 
space
space
space
$n/a | Props total:  
Wow at Rose not in the top 5 and Parker not in the top 10. John Wall should be in the mix for 10 as well imo. No complaints about numero uno. Get us to and out of the second round please.
 4 years ago '10        #9
prettyklever 121 heat pts121
space
avatar space
space
$3,773 | Props total: 1175 1175
n*ggas over hype Kyrie in my opinion, I guess its because his age. He wont pass Westbook, Tp, Rose, or curry this season.
 07-29-2013, 07:43 PM         #10
antoniob321 
space
space
space
$n/a | Props total:  
The fact that tony parker and rondo ain't even mentioned <<<<

 4 years ago '05        #11
Garnet & Gold 42 heat pts42
space
avatar space
space
$33,296 | Props total: 16 16
What in the entire fu*k

So Tony Parker goes from being top 5 in MVP candidates to not being top 10 in Point Guards? Not even gonna address the rest of the fu*kery on this trash a.ss list because it'd be a waste of time
 4 years ago '13        #12
Chrisdunk 20 heat pts20
space
avatar space
space
$2,276 | Props total: 5 5
 4 years ago '06        #13
O Nasty 96 heat pts96
space
avatar space
space
$20,419 | Props total: 288 288
 prettyklever said:
n*ggas over hype Kyrie in my opinion, I guess its because his age. He wont pass Westbook, Tp, Rose, or curry this season.
or curry

he's underrated if anything
 07-29-2013, 07:45 PM         #14
Silver N Black 
space
space
space
$n/a | Props total:  
list is embarrassing
 4 years ago '05        #15
Left Hook 28 heat pts28
space
avatar space
space
$13,333 | Props total: 1658 1658
Wow. Parker not even Top 10? Lowry ahead of him? This is a travesty.
 4 years ago '05        #16
Junior G 114 heat pts114
space
avatar space
space
$54,053 | Props total: 6952 6952
I love how Rondo just disappear after he ran the league and the playoffs for bout 4 straight years.....fu*kin jackasses....we'll see this year fu*k boys
 4 years ago '11        #17
Chad09 160 heat pts160
space
avatar space
space
$10,965 | Props total: 631 631
Kyle Lowry Top 10.

Rose is Top 3.
 4 years ago '11        #18
BLUE$ 169 heat pts169
space
avatar space
space
$10,626 | Props total: 3022 3022
Where Rio at
 4 years ago '06        #19
O Nasty 96 heat pts96
space
avatar space
space
$20,419 | Props total: 288 288
all of it is projected warp , computer sh*t

not even someone opinion, read
 4 years ago '10        #20
SoulOnIce 67 heat pts67
space
space
space
$13,765 | Props total: 947 947
Home      
  
 

 






most viewed right now
 41
Image(s) inside Sweet Colombian....Baddie... IDK nigga she got ass and she pretty. peep
84 comments
2 days ago
@thotsdimesetc
most viewed right now
 35
NBA IT OFFICIAL: Lamelo & LiAngelo Ball Have Gone Pro, Sign 1 Year Deal With L..
241 comments
19 hours ago
@sports
most viewed right now
 20
Video inside My experience after record deal (warning)
300 comments
2 days ago
@wild'ish
most viewed right now
 14
That 8mile soundtrack had some classic jams for real
36 comments
19 hours ago
@hiphop
most viewed right now
 13
Article inside Kodi addon site TVAddons to stop proactively checking for piracy
29 comments
2 days ago
@tech
most viewed right now
 11
Image(s) inside PUBG XBOX ONE Official Thread
95 comments
19 hours ago
@games
most viewed right now
 9
Dec 10 - Putin: America Is Godless, Has Turned Away from Christian Values
135 comments
2 days ago
@news
most viewed right now
 6
Akademiks low-key proved he lurks here
77 comments
19 hours ago
@hiphop
back to top
register contact Follow BX @ Twitter Follow BX @ Facebook search BX privacy