Buy Activision's stock now! $ATVI

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 5 years ago '08        #1
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o7media 47 heat pts47
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$30,202 | Props total: 8635 8635
Buy Activision's stock now! $ATVI
 

 
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Ticker Symbol : ATVI

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The video game industry is not a hot sector right now. Gaming publishers such as Activision Blizzard and Electronic Arts (Ticker: EA) still haven't recovered since the '08 market crash. Although Activision has held up much better thanks to its hit franchise Call of Duty.

However, there's an opportunity here with ATVI. Activision typically rallies ahead of a new COD (Call of Duty) release similar to how Apple's stock rallies ahead of their product releases.

They're similar to Apple in another way too. They have a very loyal and strong following. Last year's Modern Warfare 3 video game release was the largest entertainment launch in history. This means all forms of entertainment ..not just games, but movies too. The two previous records were held by Activision as well by their Black Ops and Modern Warfare 2 releases. This COD franchise continues to break records in sales and with not much competition other than from EA it looks like COD will continue on strong.

Here's a three year chart showing the last two releases of Activision's titles Modern Warfare 3 and Black Ops:


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Their new title, Black Ops 2, is set to release on November 13th which is in less than two months. On Friday my custom scanner spotted a trader purchasing 10,000+ February 2013 13x calls between .46 and .52 worth around $500,000. This unusual activity on top of the high open interest in the November 13x and January 13x calls is definitely intriguing.

I was originally looking at purchasing the November calls, however after going over the charts some more I think we may see ATVI continue the run after this release instead of selling off like it did with the Modern Warfare 3 release. I also don't think the February calls are needed which was what the 10,000+ contracts were bought on. So, I plan on buying the January 2013 14x calls which closed at .16 on Friday.

The reason I believe we'll see the run continue a little while longer this time is because of the technicals. On the monthly chart ATVI is in a very large wedge starting back in 2006. That wedge is coming to an end and with the Black Ops 2 release coming out in November it could be the catalyst that finally gets Activision out of this slump. The first resistance level is $14.40 from the highs of the MW3 release. But, I believe we can see it run to at least $15 this time which is resistance from December 2007 - January 2008. Depending on if those levels hold or not and how successful Black Ops 2 will be, we could potentially see a run back to the all time highs at $18-$19.

Going into the Black Ops 2 release we will most likely see volatility spike in the options. This trade could be a potential 10 bagger or more over the next few months.

Here's the monthly chart for ATVI which shows this wedge:


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Last edited by o7media; 09-23-2012 at 11:22 AM..

123 comments for "Buy Activision's stock now! $ATVI"

 5 years ago '10        #2
PaperBoy971 
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$543 | Props total: 560 560
 5 years ago '08        #3
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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$30,202 | Props total: 8635 8635
I plan on buying the January 2013 calls tomorrow and adding more if they fall over the next couple of weeks.
 5 years ago '07        #4
Spoken210 4 heat pts
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$2,670 | Props total: 0 0
lets say i've never bought stock, but i've been researching which ones to get..how would i go about buying a small number of shares?
 5 years ago '08        #5
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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$30,202 | Props total: 8635 8635
 Spoken210 said:
lets say i've never bought stock, but i've been researching which ones to get..how would i go about buying a small number of shares?
Open an account at a brokerage (Etrade, TDAmeritrade, Charles Schawb, etc) then fund your account. Once it's funded you can start buying stock.
 09-23-2012, 05:54 PM         #6
OrignalBigBird 
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dont understand the stock lingo
 5 years ago '08        #7
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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$30,202 | Props total: 8635 8635
 OrignalBigBird said:
dont understand the stock lingo


 5 years ago '06        #8
Rique 58 heat pts58
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 OrignalBigBird said:
dont understand the stock lingo
take your money and buy activision stock is what he is saying buy it now for $12 and it should hit at least $15
 5 years ago '08        #9
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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 Rique said:
take your money and buy activision stock is what he is saying buy it now for $12 and it should hit at least $15
Or the options for .16 and sell for at least 1.00
 5 years ago '05        #10
Gateway972 47 heat pts47
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o7 I will buy the contracts to see .... whats a couple hundred dollars
 5 years ago '08        #11
SantinoMurder 
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what are options game? i have no idea about them
 5 years ago '06        #12
Rique 58 heat pts58
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 o7media said:
Or the options for .16 and sell for at least 1.00
 09-24-2012, 08:18 AM         #13
OrignalBigBird 
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will look into it later

Do you guys know any books are websites that give tips on learning the market?
 5 years ago '08        #14
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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$30,202 | Props total: 8635 8635
 Santinomurder said:
what are options game? i have no idea about them
 OrignalBigBird said:
will look into it later

Do you guys know any books are websites that give tips on learning the market?
 5 years ago '08        #15
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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 AiRDoGG923 said:
hmm. very interesting. i shall definitely look into this. also ive gotten a little into skul and cprx

Don't know anything about CPRX, I don't follow that name. But I don't like SKUL. It's a failing business imo.
 5 years ago '08        #16
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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I bought those ATVI calls this morning. Got a partial fill at .16, bought the rest at .17.
 5 years ago '08        #17
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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$30,202 | Props total: 8635 8635
 AiRDoGG923 said:
people dont need headphones?
But when someone buys a new MP3 player it comes with headphones. Not to mention the fact that there's already a ton of competition in that space.
 5 years ago '08        #18
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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$30,202 | Props total: 8635 8635
 AiRDoGG923 said:
might get atvi this morning. pphm dropped because of a downgrade and i bought some of that. i think it has potential.
No it's down on bad drug data. Downgrade won't cause a -85% drop. But bad drug data will on a pharma stock.
 5 years ago '04        #19
Exs 151 heat pts151
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$5,752 | Props total: 1263 1263
 5 years ago '08        #20
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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$30,202 | Props total: 8635 8635
Not a bad close. Calls at .17, so not up yet.
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