Sep 4 - Obama favored to win. 75 % of Re-Election

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 5 years ago '11        #1
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Trolling 64 heat pts64
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Sep 4 - Obama favored to win. 75 % of Re-Election
 

 
We’re reaching the point of diminishing returns in analyzing Mitt Romney’s convention bounce. But we can say two things almost for certain. First, Mr. Romney very probably got a bounce. And second, it’s a below-average bounce by historical standards.

What’s trickier to figure out is whether the bounce failed to live up to reasonable expectations, in a way that ought to reduce the odds we’d a.ssign to Mr. Romney winning the election in November.

First, let’s try a simple way of measuring the bounce. In the table below, I’ve included every poll that has been released since Mr. Romney’s acceptance speech last Thursday which also released a preconvention baseline for comparison.

There is some noise in this data: Mr. Romney gets everything from a seven-point bounce (in a Public Policy Polling survey of Michigan) to what technically is an “anti-bounce” of negative two points (in the Gallup national tracking poll). But if you just average the polls together, it comes out to a three-point gain.




[pic - click to view]



You can get pickier than this if you like. For instance, in Michigan, I’m comparing a post-convention poll that screened for likely voters with a preconvention poll that did not, which is not totally kosher.

Still, a bounce somewhere in the two-to-three-point range looks about right. Or if you want to play it safe, since we may still get a few more polls on this, it’s probably somewhere in the range of one to four points.

That’s a small bounce by historical standards. If we take Mr. Romney’s bounce to be two and a half points, it would be the third-smallest for a challenger since 1968, behind John Kerry in 2004 (roughly one point) and Mr. Obama in 2008 (about two). By contrast, the average bounce for the challenger since 1968 is around eleven points.


[pic - click to view]

 Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

218 comments for "Sep 4 - Obama favored to win. 75 % of Re-Election"

 5 years ago '07        #2
JamcnPrettyboy 96 heat pts96
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Everyone knows obama is winning in a landslide.

GOP is trolling everyone with mitt romney. They want obama to have that 2nd term. Their goal is 2016
 5 years ago '06        #3
FullTimeHustla 17 heat pts17
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 DavidSilva said:


so pretty much who cares about america for 4 years. lets get obama out of office and lets use the american people as collateral for 4 years
 5 years ago '11        #4
Trolling 64 heat pts64 OP
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 FullTimeHustla said:
so pretty much who cares about america for 4 years. lets get obama out of office and lets use the american people as collateral for 4 years
Dammm . That's the truth . They said fu*k the people , and just destroyed America in the process because of the HNIC .
 5 years ago '07        #5
Wilder GOAT 259 heat pts259
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aMURKa is using MOREmans to mock christians, God is using MOREmans to mock aMURKa.. CHECKMate
 5 years ago '04        #6
SpyDa 180 heat pts180
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im not surprised. i said if obama re-elected then war before the end of the year
 5 years ago '04        #7
regularjoe 58 heat pts58
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It doesn't matter if Obama wins anyway. Republicans have filibustered tons of sh*t. One President can't make enough change alone.
 5 years ago '12        #8
Prostyle 2 heat pts
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Romney got sh*t fu*ked up, he's always talking about building wealth, when n*gga's barely tryna make ends meet.
 5 years ago '04        #9
ItAlY2BkLyN 238 heat pts238
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I just heard that gallop poll surveys every day and at last it was Obama 47% Romney 46%
 5 years ago '11        #10
Trolling 64 heat pts64 OP
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 ItAlY2BkLyN said:
I just heard that gallop poll surveys every day and at last it was Obama 47% Romney 46%
that's the popular vote . All that matters is Electoral votes and O-beezy got it
Popular vote is 51.1 O to 47.8 R

 5 years ago '11        #11
Kadillac87 225 heat pts225
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 ItAlY2BkLyN said:
I just heard that gallop poll surveys every day and at last it was Obama 47% Romney 46%
That's popular vote which means nothing. OBama is going to win the democratic states. Romeny is going to win the republican states. There's about 7 tossup states. If Obama wins Florida, election is over. Romney needs to win at least 5 of the 7 swing states to have a chance or get one of the democratic states to lean right by means of voter suppression and/or apathy among minorities voters.




Last edited by Kadillac87; 09-04-2012 at 04:01 PM..
 5 years ago '04        #12
ruff 6 heat pts
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My president will be black
 5 years ago '11        #13
Trolling 64 heat pts64 OP
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 5 years ago '11        #14
Kadillac87 225 heat pts225
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 ruff said:
My president will be black
Not if you n*ggas don't vote
 5 years ago '12        #15
Melle 52 heat pts52
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 Prostyle said:
Romney got sh*t fu*ked up, he's always talking about building wealth, when n*gga's barely tryna make ends meet.
exactly, romney is out for the interests of people living wealthy or comfortable (above average).... republicans are all about "The Hardworking Americans", they could careless about anyone else regardless!!! in simplest terms they don't want to hear excuses from people
 5 years ago '09        #16
Zaosyn 261 heat pts261
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Good Obama doesn't appeal to me but I will choose Obama every time if he's going against someone with Romney's mannerisms.
 5 years ago '04        #17
ItAlY2BkLyN 238 heat pts238
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 Kadillac87 said:
That's popular vote which means nothing. OBama is going to win the democratic states. Romeny is going to win the republican states. There's about 7 tossup states. If Obama wins Florida, election is over. Romney needs to win at least 5 of the 7 swing states to have a chance or get one of the democratic states to lean right by means of voter suppression and/or apathy among minorities voters.


Ok I got it now. My mistake.

But what about if it doesn't matter because just like McCain, the social arena is so staged that it is going to guarantee Obama reelection, just like the first time? When you got republicans robbing their own candidates to keep "their guy" in, to ensure that Obama will get another term, and finish his plan of invading foreign countries, crippling the economy further and bring our country into a full on military state?
 5 years ago '11        #18
Kadillac87 225 heat pts225
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 ItAlY2BkLyN said:
Ok I got it now. My mistake.

But what about if it doesn't matter because just like McCain, the social arena is so staged that it is going to guarantee Obama reelection, just like the first time? When you got republicans robbing their own candidates to keep "their guy" in, to ensure that Obama will get another term, and finish his plan of invading foreign countries, crippling the economy further and bring our country into a full on military state?
So you're saying the GOP logammed Congress and refused to pass any economic measures proposed by Obama to help him win so he can invade foreign countries like Bush?


 5 years ago '04        #19
knowughetto 9 heat pts
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 Heisenberg said:
fu*k dem republicans and democrats.

Fixed..
 5 years ago '04        #20
ItAlY2BkLyN 238 heat pts238
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 Kadillac87 said:
So you're saying the GOP logammed Congress and refused to pass any economic measures proposed by Obama to help him win so he can invade foreign countries like Bush?


I'm saying GOP and Democrat doesn't mean sh*t. It's all a false. A charade. Nobody in the world was going to vote for McCain with Palin after G.W.'s term. And the media coverage ensured that. And 4 years later, we have expanded Bush's policies and kept on the same track. Why did the RNC deduct electoral votes from Maine? Because the powers that be want to keep Romney in there to ensure an Obama victory.

It's just a shame people get so caught up in party affiliation and campaign promises
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