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 3 years ago '08        #2061
o7media 44 heat pts44
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 o7media said:
BBRY up 6% today on news they got a large government contract
 Chaos said:
Doji at the close today. I like it on the long side from a technical perspective. The 50 day is sideways and should point upward soon.
BBRY up big again today... +6%
 3 years ago '10        #2062
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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 o7media said:
BBRY up big again today... +6%
Yeah it has some momentum behind it. I wouldn't be surprised if it covers the gap from last June.
 3 years ago '08        #2063
o7media 44 heat pts44
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QLIK still going.. got to almost $29 today. Probably not going to play the earnings now. Missed my chance to buy at $25 - $26
 3 years ago '10        #2064
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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 o7media said:
Compare it to historical IV.. but when large buyers come in and the price on the calls spike without the stock it's because of IV.
So it wouldn't be smart to buy those high priced calls even if the stock moves $50? (usually happens on earnings, such as $GOOG)

I have an IV indicator on TOS. It shows the 52 high and low of a stocks IV. So I have an idea when IV is at the high or low end of the range. The percentile is what I'm confused about. If IV spikes, I would think the IV percentile would spike as well?
 3 years ago '08        #2065
o7media 44 heat pts44
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 Chaos said:
So it wouldn't be smart to buy those high priced calls even if the stock moves $50? (usually happens on earnings, such as $GOOG)

I have an IV indicator on TOS. It shows the 52 high and low of a stocks IV. So I have an idea when IV is at the high or low end of the range. The percentile is what I'm confused about. If IV spikes, I would think the IV percentile would spike as well?
For earnings IV is higher, but it depends on how high they are. Last earnings options were expensive for GOOG as they always were, but the IV was pricing in a much smaller move than it actually had so the calls still ended up having huge gains.

Use an options calculator to get the percentage...

For example AAPL has earnings next week on Jan 27th so the IV is higher. The 600x calls expiring next week have an IV of almost 40% vs a historical average of about 27.5%.


[pic - click to view]

 3 years ago '08        #2066
o7media 44 heat pts44
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 o7media said:
Went long on MGA March 90x calls.. large bull spread just came in. Bullish chart too, showing a move up to around $91.50 over the next 1-2 weeks. At $87.40 now.
MGA took out last week's high.. new all time highs here. Should see $90's soon. Still holding my calls, going to look to exit before next week.
 3 years ago '08        #2067
o7media 44 heat pts44
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NFLX up huge after hours on their earnings beat
 3 years ago '08        #2068
o7media 44 heat pts44
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EBAY up big after earnings also. Carl Icahn taking a .82% stake ($10M) and will propose a Paypal spinoff.
 3 years ago '09        #2069
xRapHeadx 17 heat pts17
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Anyone use any quantitative modeling for positions? I've been fooling around with a Value at Risk model and the backtests have been decent, so far.
 3 years ago '10        #2070
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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 xRapHeadx said:
Anyone use any quantitative modeling for positions? I've been fooling around with a Value at Risk model and the backtests have been decent, so far.
Never have used any models. I'd like to get into VaR and stuff like that but not right now. Have you had any experience with other models?

I know we have some mutual fund guys in here. How about corporate debt? MBS?


Last edited by Ambassador; 01-22-2014 at 06:22 PM..
 3 years ago '08        #2071
o7media 44 heat pts44
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 poker_pimp said:
Whats going on guys, just trying to get ideas from you all. Wondering if you all think ariad will jump back up again to its 52 week high and what you think about actc? thats a penny stock but ive been getting a lot of hype on it
 o7media said:
never can tell with biotechs. actc ..stay away from penny stocks. you're better off investing in ARIA long term and looking for positive drug data or a buyout.

Ariad +4.3% AH, Daily Mail reports that pharmas are circling
Jan 22 2014, 17:19

Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) shares spike 4.3% AH, after the Daily Mail floats a rumor that industry majors including Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline, and Shire "have been sniffing around" ever since Iclusig was given the green light by the FDA.

The paper throws out the number $20/share as the price the potential suitors may be willing to pay.


.... just a rumor so far, but hope you grabbed some of ARIA if it's true
 3 years ago '08        #2072
o7media 44 heat pts44
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 o7media said:
Added to my NRG call position a bit today. Going to add more on pullbacks until June or until a catalyst comes. Still has huge bullish activity on the options and low IV as well so could be big if there is a nice catalyst (merger, breakup, etc).

QLIK had a big pullback today on the market sell off. Looking to re enter calls again soon for earnings.
Covered my NRG March 31x calls at .20 and .25 from .32. Took a small profit. Shorted the June 32's now and turned my calendar spread into a vertical.
 3 years ago '08        #2073
o7media 44 heat pts44
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 o7media said:
MGA took out last week's high.. new all time highs here. Should see $90's soon. Still holding my calls, going to look to exit before next week.
Grabbed some more at 2.10 this morning. Averaged at 2.17 now.
 01-23-2014, 08:28 AM         #2074
Shugg Ross 
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RIBT & LBMH & WYY all they way
 3 years ago '10        #2075
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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We still have a nice setup on $TSLA weekly scale.
 3 years ago '08        #2076
o7media 44 heat pts44
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 Chaos said:
We still have a nice setup on $TSLA weekly scale.
Hard to chase it this high .. what's your target? I'm seeing $187 - $188.
 3 years ago '10        #2077
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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 o7media said:
Hard to chase it this high .. what's your target? I'm seeing $187 - $188.
If I were holding it I'd sell it at $188. Although it wouldn't shock me if it flew past that and made a new all time high. CNBC has stopped gossiping about it so I like it a lot.
 3 years ago '08        #2078
o7media 44 heat pts44
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 Chaos said:
If I were holding it I'd sell it at $188. Although it wouldn't shock me if it flew past that and made a new all time high. CNBC has stopped gossiping about it so I like it a lot.

[pic - click to view]

 3 years ago '10        #2079
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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 o7media said:

[pic - click to view]

I see. The stock has come off it's highs but my bullish conviction still stands.


Last edited by Ambassador; 01-23-2014 at 12:33 PM..
 3 years ago '09        #2080
xRapHeadx 17 heat pts17
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 Chaos said:
Never have used any models. I'd like to get into VaR and stuff like that but not right now. Have you had any experience with other models?

I know we have some mutual fund guys in here. How about corporate debt? MBS?
I've fooled around with some P/E projection models, but aside from DCF, not much. All the models do well as far as price targets, but in an up market, these forward projections are bound to be around the market price
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