New Metric Adjusts for Shot Selection (LeBron/Kobe Comparison)

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 6 years ago '07        #1
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joshdogg26 193 heat pts193
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New Metric Adjusts for Shot Selection (LeBron/Kobe Comparison)
 

 
I know some of you get lost when the conversation is too stat-heavy, so I'll try and keep this simple. A typical stan argument about FG% is generally reduced to who takes tougher shots, etc. I stumbled across this yesterday, and I think it's pretty useful. Here is a brief explanation of two new metrics.

XeFG%
By now, most people are familiar with effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) which multiplies threes made by 1.5 to account for the extra point so that you're not punishing three point shooters for their lower percentage on more valuable shots. Expected effective Field Goal Percentage (XeFG%) takes a player's shot distribution, and multiplies it by the league average from those ranges. The resulting number is what you would expect the average player to shoot with their shot selection.

Offensive Ratio
Offensive ratio is simply the result of dividing a player's actual effective Field Goal Percentage by their expected effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%/XeFG%). This tells you how well a player is actually shooting relative to what you would expect from a player with their shot selection.

This lets us answer a few questions:

How impressive is LeBron's FG%?

This was the subject of debate recently, and his detractors claimed that it wasn't impressive because of his shot selection. We now have the tools to measure this.

LeBron's eFG%: 56.9%
LeBron's XeFG%: 48.2%
LeBron's Offensive Ratio: 1.18

Conclusion: He is actually shooting significantly better than you would expect somebody to shoot even adjusting for his shot selection.

How impressive is Kobe's FG%?

Kobe often gets a pass for poor shooting because he elects to take tougher shots than other players. While that's his prerogative and not a reasonable excuse, we can still see how he measures up. We can now see how well Kobe shoots relative to what you would expect with his shot selection so that we don't have to unfairly compare him directly to LeBron.

Kobe's eFG%: 46.4%
Kobe's XeFG%: 44.3%
Kobe's Offensive Ratio: 1.05

Well...I guess we can put that to rest. When both players are compared to how we would expect the average player to shoot with their shot distribution, LeBron's performance is significantly better.

I ran the numbers for a few other players for curiosity. I don't know of any site that currently has this for players, but I believe Hoopdata.com is working on adding it. They currently have it up for teams only.

Wade
eFG%: 50.3%
XeFG%: 47.9%
Offensive Ratio: 1.05

Durant
eFG%: 55.7%
XeFG%: 47.3%
Offensive Ratio: 1.18

Rose
eFG%: 50.1%
XeFG%: 49.8%
Offensive Ratio: 1.01


[pic - click to view]




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118 comments for "New Metric Adjusts for Shot Selection (LeBron/Kobe Comparison)"

 6 years ago '11        #2
elvisfreshly 106 heat pts106
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If only lebron could finish games
 6 years ago '11        #3
maxnn 129 heat pts129
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You got a link so people can see every players stats on this?
 6 years ago '07        #4
joshdogg26 193 heat pts193 OP
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 maxnn said:
You got a link so people can see every players stats on this?
there isn't a link, i wrote this and did those myself in excel. i mentioned in there i think hoopdata will eventually have this for players but right now it's just teams.
 6 years ago '05        #5
MysticKJ 28 heat pts28
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 joshdogg26 said:

[pic - click to view]

 03-01-2012, 07:31 PM         #6
breakingbad 
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when stanning goes to far
 6 years ago '06        #7
philly337 20 heat pts20
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 elvisfreshly said:
If only lebron could finish games
Scores better then Kobe there too...scores more in final 5 minutes with game within 5, better field goal percentage in game winners, and better field goal percentage under any clutch circumstance (from final 5 minutes to final 2 minutes with the game close)
 6 years ago '06        #8
philly337 20 heat pts20
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 breakingbad said:
when stanning goes to far
When grammar is TOO bad
 6 years ago '05        #9
Y.G. 27 heat pts27
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 joshdogg26 said:

[pic - click to view]

 6 years ago '07        #10
joshdogg26 193 heat pts193 OP
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 breakingbad said:
when stanning goes to far
 philly337 said:
When grammar is TOO bad
 03-01-2012, 07:35 PM         #11
Cheeze 
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in before the stans argue the injuries and difficult shots
 6 years ago '07        #12
joshdogg26 193 heat pts193 OP
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 Cheeze said:
in before the stans argue the injuries and difficult shots
lol well the entire point of this was to remove the difficult shots excuse from the equation
 03-01-2012, 07:38 PM         #13
SeaJaiye 
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but but he logged 41k minutes and is 33 years old........it's not like he was playing like this his entire career............................
 6 years ago '06        #14
philly337 20 heat pts20
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 SeaJaiye said:
but but he logged 41k minutes and is 33 years old........it's not like he was playing like this his entire career............................
 6 years ago '08        #15
stlcardinals19 32 heat pts32
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This thread is shall be interesting.
 03-01-2012, 07:51 PM         #16
Cheeze 
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 joshdogg26 said:
lol well the entire point of this was to remove the difficult shots excuse from the equation
I know I'm just saying they ain't gonna comprehend that part and ignore it.....

or misinterpret the meaning of the numbers like nate187 and his shots per minute fail

 SeaJaiye said:
but but he logged 41k minutes and is 33 years old........it's not like he was playing like this his entire career............................
 6 years ago '07        #17
Cambury 39 heat pts39
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sh*t is dumb becuz any body that watches lebron play knows he plays for stats more than Kobe so of course he would have a better field goal percentage. for example...kobe would not touch the ball a whole possession and when the shot cook hits 5 he will get the rock and effectively take a low percentage shot to save the possession. Lebron on the other hand can have the basketball a whole possession then with 4 seconds or less on the clock pass the ball to well defended teammate who now has to save the possession with a bad shot. The difference is one guy doesn't are how his fg% looks at the end of the game while the other guy would rather pass then take a bad shot to save a possession.

This point isn't to be argued because it is 100% fact.
 6 years ago '04        #18
A.G 27 heat pts27
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This only takes into account 2 point shots and 3 point shots.. It's just another efg or ts% metric except calculated in non-absolute terms.

The entire premise behind the Lebron fg% argument is that a large proportion of his shots are layups and dunks and that he pretty much sucks from anywhere else within the 3 point line.
 6 years ago '07        #19
joshdogg26 193 heat pts193 OP
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 Cambury said:
sh*t is dumb becuz any body that watches lebron play knows he plays for stats more than Kobe so of course he would have a better field goal percentage. for example...kobe would not touch the ball a whole possession and when the shot cook hits 5 he will get the rock and effectively take a low percentage shot to save the possession. Lebron on the other hand can have the basketball a whole possession then with 4 seconds or less on the clock pass the ball to well defended teammate who now has to save the possession with a bad shot. The difference is one guy doesn't are how his fg% looks at the end of the game while the other guy would rather pass then take a bad shot to save a possession.

This point isn't to be argued because it is 100% fact.
aaaand we have our first one
 6 years ago '06        #20
philly337 20 heat pts20
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 Cambury said:
sh*t is dumb becuz any body that watches lebron play knows he plays for stats more than Kobe so of course he would have a better field goal percentage. for example...kobe would not touch the ball a whole possession and when the shot cook hits 5 he will get the rock and effectively take a low percentage shot to save the possession. Lebron on the other hand can have the basketball a whole possession then with 4 seconds or less on the clock pass the ball to well defended teammate who now has to save the possession with a bad shot. The difference is one guy doesn't are how his fg% looks at the end of the game while the other guy would rather pass then take a bad shot to save a possession.

This point isn't to be argued because it is 100% fact.
@ not going for stats

Kobe is out there with one intention and that's to get the scoring title. As soon as Kobe sees he ain't on pace for 30....


Chuck, chuck, chuck, chuck, chuck


Go watch the end of the heat-lakers game and tell me who was stat padding when the game was out of hand and he didn't score sh*t
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