A Stock Market Crash is coming!

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 11-19-2011, 01:43 AM         #141
Ed Bundy 
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investopedia a good place for a beginner to start learning? any other sites?
 7 years ago '08        #142
o7media 50 heat pts50 OP
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 Ed Bundy said:
investopedia a good place for a beginner to start learning? any other sites?
That's the main site I started with. Other stuff I found from Google..just various sites.
 7 years ago '08        #143
o7media 50 heat pts50 OP
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So my plan for next week is to buy the VIX or VXX calls on Friday (Black Friday). I'll be going with December or January calls.

I decided to play them just a couple of months out instead of buying 2013 options.
 7 years ago '11        #144
MACADEMICS 18 heat pts18
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 o7media said:
So my plan for next week is to buy the VIX or VXX calls on Friday (Black Friday). I'll be going with December or January calls.

I decided to play them just a couple of months out instead of buying 2013 options.
What return do you expect? Comparing between 2013 options and the next few months? Thanks.
 7 years ago '08        #145
o7media 50 heat pts50 OP
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 MACADEMICS said:
What return do you expect? Comparing between 2013 options and the next few months? Thanks.
There will be a huge difference. With the 2013's you could probably make a 1,000% return.

Doing month to month you could make up to 1,000% per month depending on how large the market swings are.

But obviously the 2013's are much much safer.
 7 years ago '10        #146
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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 o7media said:
There will be a huge difference. With the 2013's you could probably make a 1,000% return.

Doing month to month you could make up to 1,000% per month depending on how large the market swings are.

But obviously the 2013's are much much safer.
They're also much much expensive.
 7 years ago '08        #147
o7media 50 heat pts50 OP
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 iNsane said:
They're also much much expensive.
Yeah that too lol
 6 years ago '08        #148
o7media 50 heat pts50 OP
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Gold finished at $1,681 today. Down from about $1,780-$1,790 last week.

Gold down about $100 an ounce in the past week...

DOW down about 700 points in that same time frame....




[pic - click to view]

 6 years ago '11        #149
MACADEMICS 18 heat pts18
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Selling my gold tomorrow....
 11-22-2011, 11:47 AM         #150
80sbabyent 
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I'm kind of new to this, but I have a question about options. Do you have to have enough $ in your account to cover the shares included in an option contract? Ex. On Etrade it says "deliverable for this contract 100 shares of SPY" So let's say a call or put is at $1.00 and you want to buy 10 contracts, do you have to have enough money in your account to cover 1,000 shares at whatever the strike price for the call/put is?

Just trying to do my due diligence before I jump in.
 6 years ago '08        #151
o7media 50 heat pts50 OP
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 80sbabyent said:
I'm kind of new to this, but I have a question about options. Do you have to have enough $ in your account to cover the shares included in an option contract? Ex. On Etrade it says "deliverable for this contract 100 shares of SPY" So let's say a call or put is at $1.00 and you want to buy 10 contracts, do you have to have enough money in your account to cover 1,000 shares at whatever the strike price for the call/put is?

Just trying to do my due diligence before I jump in.
That's only if you want to exercise the option. If you're simply selling the contracts back in the market then no you don't need the money to cover the shares.

Very few options are actually exercised, it's less than 10% of all options traded I believe. The majority are traded back, the rest expire worthless.
 6 years ago '10        #152
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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So I was just browsing charts after the close today...and was wondering if I should go long the $VIX this coming weekend. I know there will be light volume because of thanksgiving, but I really don't see upside in this market in the near future

I think we'll get downgraded again. We have sh*t political leaders on Main St. Europe isn't going anywhere. I don't even consider buying calls in equities these days.
 6 years ago '08        #153
o7media 50 heat pts50 OP
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 iNsane said:
So I was just browsing charts after the close today...and was wondering if I should go long the $VIX this coming weekend. I know there will be light volume because of thanksgiving, but I really don't see upside in this market in the near future

I think we'll get downgraded again. We have sh*t political leaders on Main St. Europe isn't going anywhere. I don't even consider buying calls in equities these days.
I'm starting to realize that the VIX is not the right play. The VIX calls that I bought and sold last week (1.80 to 2.75) ..since then the VIX hasn't done sh*t, even though the markets continued to drop.

Those calls actually lost money, they closed at 1.75 yesterday which is ridiculous. The fear doesn't seem to be here in the markets now. Not like in August.... This is why I thought we would head back up this week, because of the VIX.

But, I'm gonna drop the VIX. I'll most likely just go with the SPY. The December SPY puts went from like 1.75 to 4.00 in the same time frame as the VIX. Plus there is no time decay on the SPY etf.
 6 years ago '10        #154
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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 o7media said:
I'm starting to realize that the VIX is not the right play. The VIX calls that I bought and sold last week (1.80 to 2.75) ..since then the VIX hasn't done sh*t, even though the markets continued to drop.

Those calls actually lost money, they closed at 1.75 yesterday which is ridiculous. The fear doesn't seem to be here in the markets now. Not like in August.... This is why I thought we would head back up this week, because of the VIX.

But, I'm gonna drop the VIX. I'll most likely just go with the SPY. The December SPY puts went from like 1.75 to 4.00 in the same time frame as the VIX. Plus there is no time decay on the SPY etf.
You don't think VIX is down because of thanksgiving this week? I was looking at financials too, they'll get hit the hardest on bad news.


Last edited by Ambassador; 11-23-2011 at 07:58 AM..
 11-23-2011, 09:42 AM         #155
80sbabyent 
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 o7media said:
That's only if you want to exercise the option. If you're simply selling the contracts back in the market then no you don't need the money to cover the shares.

Very few options are actually exercised, it's less than 10% of all options traded I believe. The majority are traded back, the rest expire worthless.
Makes sense, thanks.
 6 years ago '08        #156
o7media 50 heat pts50 OP
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 iNsane said:
You don't think VIX is down because of thanksgiving this week? I was looking at financials too, they'll get hit the hardest on bad news.
Nah the VIX should have been at $40 by now. The fear isn't there, same thing happened during the August correction compared to last year's sell off in May. The VIX should have broken out past that $48 top and been well into the mid $50's but nobody was buying it. And we ended up rallying like crazy.

The same thing is happening here, nobody's buying into the fear trade. The market should head back up soon IMO.

All this selling is also on light volume due to the holidays, so it just doesn't look right. It seems like the big crash (if it happens) won't happen til after Thanksgiving...maybe even Christmas. That's why I originally had my target set for Jan 2012. But this selling came a little early, took me by surprise.


 80sbabyent said:
Makes sense, thanks.
No prob.
 6 years ago '04        #157
deneye 
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what do you think of BofA stock? will the government allow them to fail, or will they be bought out? and how do you think they would do in the future?
 6 years ago '05        #158
MeziaaL 4 heat pts
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Whoever thinks the American stock market is strong has their head buried in the sand. Fundamentally, an economy without a sound currency, high savings rate and strong manufacturing base and productivity is bound to fail regardless.
 6 years ago '08        #159
o7media 50 heat pts50 OP
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 deneye said:
what do you think of BofA stock? will the government allow them to fail, or will they be bought out? and how do you think they would do in the future?

I don't think they'd be allowed to fail, but the stock is still a bad investment right now. But, if the markets do crash, banks will probably bounce back first IMO because of how bad they've been beaten down already.

 MeziaaL said:
Whoever thinks the American stock market is strong has their head buried in the sand. Fundamentally, an economy without a sound currency, high savings rate and strong manufacturing base and productivity is bound to fail regardless.


 BigL139 said:
FYI gold is NOT A BACKING for the dollar at all...Nixon took us totally off the gold standard but even before then when our CRIMINAL Central Bank (Federal Reserve) was enacted in 1913, the jewish criminals no longer needed backing of any kind except interest bearing treasury bills to completely enslave us...The federal reserve needs no backing because it has a license to issue as much counterfeit currency as it pleases ...but I do agree gold is not a good buy.......better to invest in GUNS AND FAST
That's true, there is no Gold standard anymore. I probably mis worded that, but the USD and Gold still have an inverse relationship regardless of the standard or not.
 6 years ago '08        #160
o7media 50 heat pts50 OP
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I believe the top is in for the markets. A big big drop is coming tomorrow IMO.

I plan on buying SPY puts (next week's weekly's) today before the close. Probably the 124x strike, maybe the 123x depending on where we close.

But we should close flat today with a doji on the daily.
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