A Stock Market Crash is coming!

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 6 years ago '08        #201
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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Here's another good one, and it shows the importance of breakouts from these trends. I alerted BKS about 2 months ago on October 11th.

Here's the full email alert for BKS in October:

Here's the chart from the email..

As you can see it has a similar wedge pattern to GLD, although this may actually be classified as a descending triangle. Doesn't really matter though, the support/resistance is clear.


[pic - click to view]





So anyway, it broke that wedge/triangle a couple of weeks later and the stock flew to almost $19 in November, from about $12 at the alert.

9 times out of 10 breaks of these trends bring large movements unless there's lots of other support/resistance along the way. Here's the current chart of BKS...


[pic - click to view]

 6 years ago '08        #202
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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 o7media said:
Ok I bought SPY 124x (next week's expiry) puts at 1.40.... Holding overnight.
Still holding these, got k!lled on the rally and time decay..

I averaged down though, i'm in at .84 now.
 6 years ago '08        #203
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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S&P warns of a credit downgrade on Germany, France, and a few other major european countries...

Markets just sold off fast. DOW lost about 100 points in 30 minutes. My SPY puts are actually green :dancingcool:
 6 years ago '08        #204
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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 o7media said:


S&P warns of a credit downgrade on Germany, France, and a few other major european countries...

Markets just sold off fast. DOW lost about 100 points in 30 minutes. My SPY puts are actually green :dancingcool:
Dow fell about 140 points. Sold my SPY puts for a 20.2% profit after being down 50% this morning

Made $435 on that trade. Really wanted to hold overnight for a potential gap down, but I have weekly's and didn't want to get r*ped by the time decay if I'm wrong. Played it safe instead.


[pic - click to view]

 6 years ago '10        #205
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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 o7media said:
No I don't mean those indicators specifically. I personally don't use any of those.

What I meant was watching which sectors are doing good and bad, watching market leaders, etc...

For example, yesterday I saw miners (gold stocks) breaking support. There were quite a few, off the top of my head I remember ABX, GG, AUY, and a few more. And they were all breaking down at the same time, yet Gold and the markets weren't following.

I'd take a screenshot of my scanner to show you what I mean, but Etrade is doing maintenance right now or something so it's not working. But here's the GLD chart...

I bought the GLD puts right after I saw all those miners breaking support, at around 10:30 EST.


[pic - click to view]




..I tried to buy more at .28 but only 1 filled and Gold dropped fast

But anyway, here's the GLD chart, you can see what happened after the miners were breaking support, and the same happened with the markets..

Pretty much was the top in GLD for the day, it was down from there on out.


[pic - click to view]

I use the same platform as you do, and to figure out which sector has the most money flowing in, you would click on "sectors" and that'll show which ones are the most active ones? I noticed how you use a 100 day chart and sometimes the 1 min chart. The indicators and moving averages you have up indicate where the trend is going during that specified time frame right?
 6 years ago '08        #206
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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 iNsane said:
I use the same platform as you do, and to figure out which sector has the most money flowing in, you would click on "sectors" and that'll show which ones are the most active ones? I noticed how you use a 100 day chart and sometimes the 1 min chart. The indicators and moving averages you have up indicate where the trend is going during that specified time frame right?
To see the sectors, yeah go to the little sectors icon and it'll pop up. It's not really based on how much money is flowing in, just based on how well each one is performing.

The default one I use is 100 day yeah. But I use 1, 3, 5, 15, 20, 30, and 60 min time frames too. Pretty much all of them. I just post the 1 mins here to show the intraday action. But my main charts are 5 and 15 min for intraday moves. And daily I use 100 day's mainly so I can get a good look of resistance/support levels over a nice sized time frame.

Moving averages and most other indicators are lagging indicators, so they're not really used for showing trends IMO. However something like trend lines will show you where the stock is heading.

RSI is a very important indicator as well as MACD, but again those are lagging.

The best indicator is volume IMO
 6 years ago '10        #207
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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 o7media said:
To see the sectors, yeah go to the little sectors icon and it'll pop up. It's not really based on how much money is flowing in, just based on how well each one is performing.

The default one I use is 100 day yeah. But I use 1, 3, 5, 15, 20, 30, and 60 min time frames too. Pretty much all of them. I just post the 1 mins here to show the intraday action. But my main charts are 5 and 15 min for intraday moves. And daily I use 100 day's mainly so I can get a good look of resistance/support levels over a nice sized time frame.

Moving averages and most other indicators are lagging indicators, so they're not really used for showing trends IMO. However something like trend lines will show you where the stock is heading.

RSI is a very important indicator as well as MACD, but again those are lagging.

The best indicator is volume IMO
What if the MACD and RSI show an uptrend during one time frame and a downtrend in another? Which one would be more valid in your opinion? Because I know a couple people who are pattern day traders and make 5+ trades a day using 1 min charts.
 6 years ago '08        #208
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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 iNsane said:
What if the MACD and RSI show an uptrend during one time frame and a downtrend in another? Which one would be more valid in your opinion? Because I know a couple people who are pattern day traders and make 5+ trades a day using 1 min charts.
It depends on what you're trading it as, if you're looking for a swing trade then go with a longer time frame.

If those guys are trading MACD with 1 min charts then all they're probably doing is scalping with either a lot of money or with weekly options.

But you can't use either of those indicators by itself. You should be using MACD, RSI, volume, etc all together. Otherwise there will be too many head fakes.

Look at GA ..I alerted that last week for one of the guys in my chat at $4.00. The MACD is flat on the 100 day chart, but if you look at the 13 or 26 day you'll see that it crossed over today. And it finally closed above the 20 ma on the daily. So now it can try to breakout for 4.30's.

RSI also crossed above 50, so it's looking pretty bullish here IMO.
 6 years ago '10        #209
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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 o7media said:
It depends on what you're trading it as, if you're looking for a swing trade then go with a longer time frame.

If those guys are trading MACD with 1 min charts then all they're probably doing is scalping with either a lot of money or with weekly options.

But you can't use either of those indicators by itself. You should be using MACD, RSI, volume, etc all together. Otherwise there will be too many head fakes.

Look at GA ..I alerted that last week for one of the guys in my chat at $4.00. The MACD is flat on the 100 day chart, but if you look at the 13 or 26 day you'll see that it crossed over today. And it finally closed above the 20 ma on the daily. So now it can try to breakout for 4.30's.

RSI also crossed above 50, so it's looking pretty bullish here IMO.
I see, so because it crossed over in a shorter time frame, does that mean he's going to hold only for that certain time frame (13, 26)? And if a trader only trades off the 100 day time frame, they would need to wait until the MACD says so right? (and other indicators, too)


Last edited by Ambassador; 12-05-2011 at 06:33 PM.. Reason: `
 6 years ago '08        #210
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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 iNsane said:
I see, so because it crossed over in a shorter time frame, does that mean he's going to hold only for that certain time frame (13, 26)? And if a trader only trades off the 100 day time frame, they would need to wait until the MACD says so right? (and other indicators, too)
ehh it really depends on the person. some people will play it conservative and take small profits, some will let it ride out.

most traders don't only trade off one time frame, at least they shouldn't imo. but yeah, depending on the pattern you're trading you should use indicators that work for you.

but again, it depends on the person, some have certain strategies and indicators that they prefer over others. like for me, i don't use bollinger bands at all, but most traders that i know use them..i just don't find them accurate.
 6 years ago '08        #211
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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In SPY 125x weekly puts at .93
 6 years ago '08        #212
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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 o7media said:
In SPY 125x weekly puts at .93
Added more SPY puts at .86. Average at .90. Wasn't trying to avg down though, just not liking this rally at all.
 6 years ago '10        #213
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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Doubt there will be any downside momentum todayprobably later this week. Might be wrong.


Last edited by Ambassador; 12-06-2011 at 12:47 PM..
 6 years ago '08        #214
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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 iNsane said:
Doubt there will be any downside momentum todayprobably later this week. Might be wrong.
Well it's been pretty boring so far. Had a couple chances to sell around 1.10 but decided to hold.

Now I'm pretty much flat. Should have taken my 20% profits.
 6 years ago '10        #215
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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 o7media said:
Well it's been pretty boring so far. Had a couple chances to sell around 1.10 but decided to hold.

Now I'm pretty much flat. Should have taken my 20% profits.
Yeah I hate when that happens. Very low volume.
 6 years ago '08        #216
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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Averaged down on my SPY 125x weekly puts. In at .80. Still not liking this action. Bull trap IMO.
 6 years ago '10        #217
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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$SPY in red after hours. Could have been worse
 6 years ago '08        #218
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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 iNsane said:
$SPY in red after hours. Could have been worse
I just sold in the AH. In at .80 out at .85 for a $71 gain after fees

sh*tty day, made very little. Figured it was better to sell than risk a potential gap up + time decay.
 6 years ago '08        #219
o7media 47 heat pts47 OP
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fu*k those SPY puts went to .89 x .90 in the AH. Could have made another $125 ish
 6 years ago '10        #220
Ambassador 444 heat pts444
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 o7media said:
fu*k those SPY puts went to .89 x .90 in the AH. Could have made another $125 ish
Better than losing money
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