"LeBron James is having a historical season, and it's time we all took notice"

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 9 years ago '08        #101
EMER1TUS 11 heat pts11
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That is the worst attempt ever at comparing LBJ to MJ...stop it the, BS media is attempting to brain wash people into believing LBJ is the best thing smoking...I am not a hater at all just someone with a good basketball IQ who played the game in college and has family that played in the "L"...Anybody who know something about hooping knows Kobe Bryant is the best basketball player on the planet right now and it aint even close with Bron coming in second...Hollinger stop trying to push this n*gga to the top b4 its his turn..Bron will get there -----WHEN KOBE RETIRES....my $.02
 9 years ago '05        #102
Sheeed 1 heat pts
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 Mike Nitty said:
That is the worst attempt ever at comparing LBJ to MJ...stop it the, BS media is attempting to brain wash people into believing LBJ is the best thing smoking...I am not a hater at all just someone with a good basketball IQ who played the game in college and has family that played in the "L"...Anybody who know something about hooping knows Kobe Bryant is the best basketball player on the planet right now and it aint even close with Bron coming in second...Hollinger stop trying to push this n*gga to the top b4 its his turn..Bron will get there -----WHEN KOBE RETIRES....my $.02
lmao @ hollinger trying to push this s**t with a made up stat system

this is the same system he used to actually say that phoenix was not a bad team defensively...but im sure no one else knew that lol
 9 years ago '06        #103
seewhy14 
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Don't get me wrong i think Lebron should get the MVP because of there record and Kobe has a better cast behind him. But hell people should be noticing what D Wade is doing especially after last year. Also i'm always amazed at him because he's a smaller 2.
 9 years ago '05        #104
BurninLz 31 heat pts31 OP
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PART 2

I get e-mails all the time about Player Efficiency Rating (PER), and while some of them are childish -- all-caps rants in which even the four-letter words are misspelled -- a lot of them are intelligent.

One of the most common themes among the latter group is that PER doesn't account for how many minutes a player has played; thus, while it's useful in a vacuum, it doesn't necessarily provide enough information for things like year-end awards and All-Star teams, in which how much a player does something is as important a factor as how well. This is particularly salient in this year's Rookie of the Year race, for example, in which the top rookie by PER, Marreese Speights of Philadelphia, averages only 15.3 minutes per game.

To help address that, it's time for a new acronym: VA. It stands for "Value Added," and the idea behind it is to measure not only quality but also quantity. Those of you familiar with VORP (Value over Replacement Player) in baseball will instantly recognize it, as it is the same type of measurement.

OK, that's three paragraphs and three acronyms, so let's try to get back to English.

The idea behind Value Added is to take the difference between a given player's performance and that of a "replacement level" talent -- the type of guy who might be sitting at the end of a team's bench, or perhaps in Sioux Falls -- and multiply that difference by the number of minutes that player played. The result shows, theoretically, how many number of points the player added to his team's bottom line on the season.

VA is very useful for award voting in particular, because it allows us to compare players with disparate production and minutes -- say, one player who was brilliant in 60 games and another who was merely good but played all 82 -- and figure out which performance was more productive.

Now for the nitty-gritty.

"Replacement level" is a common term in sports analytics for the level of talent readily available to be picked up off the scrap heap. In NBA terms, it's either a minimum contract guy at the end of the bench or some other team's bench, a veteran off the free-agent scrap heap or a call-up from the D-League.

Assigning a value to "replacement level" is perhaps more difficult in basketball than it is in baseball, as there is relatively little roster turnover during the course of a season.

Nonetheless, analyzing several years of data and looking closely at players who played less than 500 minutes in a season reveals a pattern. The average PER for a "replacement level" player in the NBA is about 11.0, and it varies by position. Power forward is the most replaceable position, with an average replacement level PER of 11.5; the two wing positions are the least, at 10.5 each; point guards, at 11.0, and centers, at 10.6, fall somewhere in between.

Knowing the "replacement level" value at a given position, we can take a player's PER and minutes played and use it to calculate his VA. Chris Paul, for example, has played 2,470 minutes with a PER of 30.06 through Tuesday's games. Since the average replacement level PER for a point guard is 11.0, we take the difference (30.06-11.0) and multiply by his minutes played, returning a product of 47,078.2.

There's one more step. We want VA to mean something, and in this case we want it to be the approximate number of additional points the player has been worth to his team, over the course of the season, relative to a replacement level player. To get to Point A from Point B requires us to divide the result by 67. Yes, 67. Sorry, that's what works. (If you're curious, a point of PER over the course of 2,000 minutes is worth about 30 points to a team, meaning that one point of PER over one minute is worth 1/67th of a point.)

So what we end up with is the formula:

VA = ((Minutes * (PER -- Position Replacement Level)) / 67)

Where Position Replacement Level = 11.5 for power forwards, 11.0 for point guards, 10.6 for centers, and 10.5 for shooting guards and small forwards

LeBron James' VA, as you might have guessed, leads the league. The chart shows the leaders this season; we also have VA posted for the entire league on our stats page starting today.

League Leaders: VA and EWA (Through Tuesday's games)

Player Team PER VA EWA
LeBron James Cavaliers 31.69 843.3 28.1
Dwyane Wade Heat 30.55 795.7 26.5
Chris Paul Hornets 30.06 702.6 23.4
Dwight Howard Magic 25.87 556.6 18.6
Kobe Bryant Lakers 24.88 545.0 18.2
If you're wondering whether this is further evidence that James should be the league's MVP … yes, it is, pretty much. James leads the league by a fairly wide margin, with Dwyane Wade his only close competitor.

In fact, you'll notice another column running alongside VA called EWA: Estimated Wins Added. EWA is the same idea as VA, except that the result is expressed in terms of wins instead of points. This is helpful if you're trying to figure out the impact of, say, removing LeBron James from the Cavs or Kobe Bryant from the Lakers. Note that the leaderboard for the two categories will always be identical; EWA is just VA divided by 30, since it takes about 30 points over the course of an 82-game season to add another win.

Where it gets more interesting, perhaps, is in looking at the rookie of the year race. A little over a week ago I made the argument that Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol had been more effective -- even though they had played fewer minutes -- than Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo, and thus that those two should be first and second on rookie of the year ballots.

I wrote the article not knowing the VA of the players in question, but it appears I now have some cover for my position. Lopez, despite playing six minutes per game fewer than Rose, is ahead of the pack in VA, while Gasol is running second.
Rookie Leaders: VA and EWA (Through Tuesday's games)

Player Team PER VA EWA
Brook Lopez Nets 17.72 226.5 7.6
Marc Gasol Grizzlies 16.51 189.2 6.3
Kevin Love Timberwolves 18.47 185.0 6.2
Derrick Rose Bulls 15.38 171.2 5.7
O.J. Mayo Grizzlies 14.26 148.9 5.0
ESPN.com has added VA and EWA to the PER leaderboard, so you can track the best and worst in each over the season's final weeks, as well as in coming seasons.

In the meantime, keep those e-mails coming. I promise I won't tell anyone if you misspell the four-letter words.

QUICK VA FAQ

Does this replace PER?

Heavens, no. PER describes a player's per-minute quality of play, and in most situations, that's the thing we care about most. But not all situations; sometimes we want to know more about what a player's season-long value was. MVP voting is the most obvious example, but there are several other situations that come to mind.

So is Bruce Bowen the worst player in the league?

No. He has the worst VA because it becomes negative for players with a PER under the replacement level at their position. Of such players, Bowen has played far more minutes than the rest thanks to his on-ball defensive ability (which PER doesn't measure). Those minutes make his rating even more negative than the rest, dragging him to the bottom of the pile. For genuine awfulness, however, one could argue that Adam Morrison (-47.1) and Stephon Marbury (-1.1) have done as much to hurt their teams as anyone else in the league.

What about leadership and intangibles?

This is a tool to guide the logic of award votes, not one to automatically fill out people's ballots. There are any number of valid reasons why a player who ranks high on this list might be more or less valuable in real life, as I've covered ad nauseam in previous missives: individual defense, locker-room presence and leadership, clutch plays, etc.

I tend to see this as a situation in which the burden of proof matters. As in, if you think Kobe is the MVP and LeBron isn't, and LeBron's VA is nearly double Bryant's, then the burden of proof is on a Kobe voter to explain what in his 2008-09 résumé could overcome such a disparity.

Why don't you just call it VORP?

VORP, adopted from baseball, has been used to describe a number of different methodologies in basketball. While they all do the same sort of thing as this one -- differentiate a player's value from that of a replacement-level player -- there are several different means to that end. It seems pretty easy to confuse onlookers if I'm using one method and calling it VORP and other analysts use different ones, so I thought it best for all concerned if this thing had a name of its own.
 9 years ago '04        #105
efromthev 2 heat pts
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We have answers for Spurs, but Spurs dont have noooo answer for Kobe.
You don't really need an answer for kobe, he chokes in the clutch.
 9 years ago '04        #106
Javon23 265 heat pts265
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 keithbm1111 said:
at the Cavs fans in denial that people were saying they'd win. You guys are f**ked, your love for LeBron is disgusting. I admit, I like LeBron, I dont think I like him as much as some of the people on this site who are more than willing to suck his d**k if he asked, but he's a great player. but come on, you know the Celtics had no one syaing they'd win except the C's fans.
again i say find a thread where people were picking the cavs over boston last year
 9 years ago '04        #107
efromthev 2 heat pts
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Don't be mad becuase he can't do it without Shaq.

Celtics put him on lock last year.
 9 years ago '07        #108
acwmich 
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win a title then come f**k with me
 9 years ago '05        #109
I'm The Dan 7 heat pts
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 keithbm1111 said:
at the Cavs fans in denial that people were saying they'd win. You guys are f**ked, your love for LeBron is disgusting. I admit, I like LeBron, I dont think I like him as much as some of the people on this site who are more than willing to suck his d**k if he asked, but he's a great player. but come on, you know the Celtics had no one syaing they'd win except the C's fans.
Alright, that s**t needs to stop. I remember when the C's made the trade for Garnett and Allen. I was down at my cousins house and we were watching ESPN. Everyone and their MAMMA said that the C's had it locked up. Now, the Lakers went on to get Gasol and that changed it a bit. It evened up after that, but the C's never had only their fans backing them.

They lost a lot of media support when they had to go seven games in the first three series. Just don't act like your team climbed up from under a rock and won the championship. They had love from day one.

 someone said:
hes got 2 all stars playing with him this year its about time you stop blaming his f**king team for the guy not being able to lead them to a title
He actually has three all-stars. Big Z, Big Ben and Mo Williams. For the record, Kobe has one... ...
 9 years ago '04        #110
A.G 27 heat pts27
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 I'm The Dan said:
Alright, that s**t needs to stop. I remember when the C's made the trade for Garnett and Allen. I was down at my cousins house and we were watching ESPN. Everyone and their MAMMA said that the C's had it locked up. Now, the Lakers went on to get Gasol and that changed it a bit. It evened up after that, but the C's never had only their fans backing them.

They lost a lot of media support when they had to go seven games in the first three series. Just don't act like your team climbed up from under a rock and won the championship. They had love from day one.



He actually has three all-stars. Big Z, Big Ben and Mo Williams. For the record, Kobe has one... ...
Well if we're being technical, Wally Z was also an all-star but seriously, it doesn't really mean anything.
 9 years ago '07        #111
kakish 9 heat pts
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I can't stand Hollingers dumb a.ss and his dumb a.ss PER.
 9 years ago '07        #112
keithbm1111 97 heat pts97
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 I'm The Dan said:
Alright, that s**t needs to stop. I remember when the C's made the trade for Garnett and Allen. I was down at my cousins house and we were watching ESPN. Everyone and their MAMMA said that the C's had it locked up. Now, the Lakers went on to get Gasol and that changed it a bit. It evened up after that, but the C's never had only their fans backing them.

They lost a lot of media support when they had to go seven games in the first three series. Just don't act like your team climbed up from under a rock and won the championship. They had love from day one.



He actually has three all-stars. Big Z, Big Ben and Mo Williams. For the record, Kobe has one... ...

I was talking about people on this site, not analysts.
 9 years ago '06        #113
NickJ Da Voice 1 heat pts
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Lebron = MVP
 9 years ago '04        #114
Javon23 265 heat pts265
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 beantown85 said:
it's a no brainer huh??? thats hilarious b/c last june out of about 20 analysts on espn only one of them picked the celtics
Posted via Mobile Device
......................
 9 years ago '04        #115
Javon23 265 heat pts265
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 keithbm1111 said:
where'd he lie? everyone on this site was rooting for and saying the Cavs would beat the C's, then it was the Pistons will win, then it was Kobe would win
your reply to what was said above
you backed him up
like i said before
Celtic Fan = Hypocrite
 9 years ago '07        #116
keithbm1111 97 heat pts97
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 Javon23 said:
your reply to what was said above
you backed him up
like i said before
Celtic Fan = Hypocrite
what are you talking about?
 9 years ago '05        #117
I'm The Dan 7 heat pts
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Haha.. I swear I was going to put Wally Z as well, but I couldn't remember for sure. I actually said to myself "He couldn't have been an all-star..." -- ok, so LeBron has four former all-stars on his team and people say he doesn't have a good team and he has to do it all himself.

s**tttttttt...

Mo Williams, Wally, LeBron, Big Ben, Big Z ... You could have a starting team of all-stars.. haha.
 9 years ago '04        #118
Javon23 265 heat pts265
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 I'm The Dan said:
Haha.. I swear I was going to put Wally Z as well, but I couldn't remember for sure. I actually said to myself "He couldn't have been an all-star..." -- ok, so LeBron has four former all-stars on his team and people say he doesn't have a good team and he has to do it all himself.

s**tttttttt...

Mo Williams, Wally, LeBron, Big Ben, Big Z ... You could have a starting team of all-stars.. haha.
the man damn near averages a triple double
nuff said
 03-27-2009, 10:38 AM         #119
GrilledCheese 
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 beantown85 said:
^I finally agree with you

at least wade won something
Posted via Mobile Device
Then I offer you an uneasy handshake........
(with a Yankee brand bat in my other hand hidden behind my back)
lol nah its all good.
 03-27-2009, 10:40 AM         #120
GrilledCheese 
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 sneekas said:
analysts dont mean s**t these days.

look at f**kin jalen rose
hes a analyst....hes a dumbf**k.

charles barkley...lets not go there.
jalen rose and charles barkley spit more truth then micheal wilpon or half of these never been athletes. the only ex baller I never like hearing is Mark Jackson..I dunno if its the way he talks or the way he talks out his a.ss every now and then. Van Gundy and Reggie speak the truth, except reggie is just as annoying to listen to as he was to watch...
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