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‘Alita: Battle Angel’ on Track to Become Fox’s Final Release – and a $200 Million Flop


 
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 4 months ago '06        #1
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SM 40704 heat pts40704
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‘Alita: Battle Angel’ on Track to Become Fox’s Final Release – and a $200 Million Flop
 

 

Fox may need to rely on Oscar victories for “Bohemian Rhapsody” if it’s looking for good news prior to their Disney merger, because what may be its last release as a stand-alone studio is on course to become a big bomb unless it gets an overseas bailout.

Two weeks away from its Feb. 14 U.S. release, “Alita: Battle Angel” is estimated by independent trackers to post a five-day opening of no more than $25 million against a production budget that has been reported to be between $150 million and $200 million. Analysts have told TheWrap they estimate the James Cameron-written/Robert Rodriguez-directed film will have a final domestic total of $45-50 million.

But Boxoffice.com analyst Daniel Loria tells TheWrap that low figure is a significant improvement over what had been projected when the film was originally slated to be released at Christmas against “Aquaman,” which has grossed nearly $1.1 billion worldwide.

“It’s not looking great, but by moving it to Valentine’s Day, they gave the film a bit more runway to make some money against ‘The Lego Movie 2’ and ‘How to Train Your Dragon 3,’ which aren’t direct competition,” he said.

“Alita” is by far the most expensive project in Rodriguez’s directing career, as he’s known for mid-budget genre pics, with his priciest project being his $67 million “Grindhouse” collab with Quentin Tarantino in 2007. But “Alita” has the support of blockbuster maven Cameron, who is also producing the film through his Lightstorm Entertainment banner, along with Rodriguez’s Troublemaker Studios, TSG Entertainment and Fox.

“Alita” has been a passion project for Cameron, who first announced his plans to adapt Yukito Kishiro’s cyberpunk manga back in 2003 when the “Matrix” trilogy had pushed cyberpunk to unprecedented mainstream popularity. But the project was sidelined as Cameron went on to make the box office record-breaking “Avatar” and wasn’t revisited until 2016, when Rodriguez came aboard.

Several big-budget cyberpunk dystopian films have failed to make much at the box office. Most notable was Paramount’s $110 million adaptation of the ’90s anime film “Ghost in the Shell” in 2017. Panned by critics, the film only made $40 million domestically and $169 million worldwide, becoming one of the year’s biggest busts.

Cyberpunk films that earned strong reviews haven’t done much better. Eight months after “Ghost in the Shell,” Warner Bros. released “Blade Runner 2049,” a sequel to Ridley’s Scott’s sci-fi classic with Scott returning as executive producer and Harrison Ford returning to star alongside Ryan Gosling. Despite the strong reviews and marquee stars, the $150 million film only made $259 million worldwide and failed to cross the $100 million domestic mark.

And so far, it’s not looking like “Alita” will enjoy the critical response “2049” got. With 16 early reviews logged, the film currently has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 31 percent. Rodriguez has earned praise for his direction and for the film’s thrilling CGI action scenes, but the script co-written by Cameron was given a thumbs down.

Whether or not “Alita: Battle Angel” will be able to break even will be determined a week after its domestic release, as it is set to come out in China and Japan on Feb. 22. “Alita” is more well-known in Asia than it is in the U.S., so there’s a possibility that the film might surprise overseas. But to do so, it will have to gain a foothold against over a dozen Chinese films that will be in their third week of release after coming out for the Lunar New Year festivities on Feb. 5.

“The last weekend of February will give us the full picture of how ‘Alita’ is going to do internationally,” Loria said. “But you never want to be in a position where you need China to find success. Sometimes there’s a film like ‘Warcraft’ that does end up becoming a big success just because of China, but it’s always such a hard market to predict.”

In all, Fox looks like it will be going out with a whimper rather than a bang at the box office. The studio closed 2018 on a high note, as “Bohemian Rhapsody” has grossed $819 million worldwide, ranking seventh among all 2018 releases. Last week, the film earned five Oscar nominations to go with its two Golden Globe wins, including Best Picture and Best Actor for Rami Malek.

But last weekend, Fox released the family film “The Kid Who Would Be King” which, despite strong critical reviews, is bombing with a $7.5 million opening against a $59 million budget.

With the Disney merger expected to complete by the end of March, “Kid” and “Alita” will likely be the final two films released in the 84-year history of 20th Century Fox, and it’s looking like they will both be costly misfires.
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50 comments for "‘Alita: Battle Angel’ on Track to Become Fox’s Final Release – and a $200 Million Flop"

 4 months ago '17        #2
Zazi3 The Beast 148 heat pts148
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It's going to flop like a fish out of water
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 4 months ago '17        #3
Thegreatiandi 
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It will flop...but i will be there to see the film next weekend.

Nothing wrong with some good ol sci fi sometimes.
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 4 months ago '10        #4
pacman45 10 heat pts10
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Im gonna see it. The special effects look pretty damn good and im a fan of robert rodriguez so im down for it.
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 4 months ago '06        #5
LeMar G 250 heat pts250
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Some of you weirdo n*ggas was in here gassing this fu*king filth up like it was a matrix level contender.

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 4 months ago '04        #6
x Tha Arkitek x 91 heat pts91
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Movie doesn't drop until the 14th and it isn't like this is some huge Marvel or DC release that should be having crazy pre-sales. I'm going to see this opening weekend regardless, looks dope.
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 4 months ago '15        #7
CALL AGAIN 
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I love Robert Rodriquez and ElRay was a cool little channel but he is generic as hell besides his purposely ‘grindhouse’ cheesey pulp films. This sh*t looked like a stinker when i first heard about it a year back.
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 4 months ago '07        #8
Avon_Barksdale 4751 heat pts4751
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Seen the previews and I immediately knew that I wasn’t gonna go see it...

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 4 months ago '15        #9
CALL AGAIN 
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On another note. That’s wild how far they can track movies now everyone preorders there seat now it seems. I am in my late 20s being in that nice middle of analog to digital is a trip. I was explaining to some kids the other day we used to cop the 50cent paper to see show times of movies and just slide thru.
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 4 months ago '18        #10
stutteringrap 84 heat pts84
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yaw n*ggas are so fu*king brutal. wishing movies would flop and sh*t. i mean if it was a some plain c word flim. i would be mad. but this looks fire. speically in 4k and imax.
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 4 months ago '18        #11
stutteringrap 84 heat pts84
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i miss the old martial arts and sci fi action movies. i so would watch it.
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 4 months ago '19        #12
Gold Face 2 heat pts
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Money laundering special

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 4 months ago '04        #13
GodsFavorite 110 heat pts110
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It actually is getting good reviews and I’m game for a good new sci fi flick. Will def go see it but yeah you’re not selling the general public on this one

 4 months ago '19        #14
Supreme Doom 
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Nostalgia will have me watch this...

Not hating but it was already doomed on takeoff

Anime not for PG13.

Rodriquez should have known... Its too much a mashup of a lil old tech\post apoc.a lil new Scyfy. But the story isnt new.

Id like everyone whos ignoring the obvious and still go see this to remember when a Anime drops n is rated R, have the same energy for those originals.

Cause this PG13 shyt is for birds. It now makes every potentially GREAT movie dead in the water
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 4 months ago '18        #15
Txheat 47 heat pts47
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 stutteringrap said
yaw n*ggas are so fu*king brutal. wishing movies would flop and sh*t. i mean if it was a some plain c word flim. i would be mad. but this looks fire. speically in 4k and imax.
It’s the internet. Stay yo soft a*s off it.

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 4 months ago '07        #16
TH35 112 heat pts112
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It’s crazy if it does flop. They moved the Christmas release date to Feb 14th to get more money. I haven’t seen any reviews. I’ll go see the movie though.
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 4 months ago '17        #17
SATX 2 heat pts
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I had a feeling it would since it kept getting pushed back but I hope it doesn't.
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 4 months ago '12        #18
Pleasure Boy 1334 heat pts1334
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Ironically Peter Jackson made two big budget movies both female leads and now the 2nd one is about to flop... I'm still gonna see Alita tho movie look entertaining
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 4 months ago '14        #19
titans7 1 heat pts
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Those big eyes are creepy and turning off alot of us casuals from wanting to see it.
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 4 months ago '18        #20
RoyRogers225 
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Smh by the year 2045 all movies will be produce by disney
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 4 months ago '09        #21
29 26 9 heat pts
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It looks dope imo, people want good anime adaptions but don't support them when they come out.

It should do better overseas tho.


Last edited by 29 26; 02-02-2019 at 04:38 PM..
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 4 months ago '16        #22
mobchip 3 heat pts
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I'm not going to say anything about the movie cause I was invited to see it on Friday, and I was excited, but I had car problems. I will see it next week, play $20 bucks for parking, and see it in IMAX.

 4 months ago '05        #23
freshtoodef 5 heat pts
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I wanted to see it but I didn’t mind waiting til it hit hbo

 4 months ago '15        #24
Veggie Burgers 1 heat pts
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Saw the trailer last time I went to the movies. Thought it was cool. Visuals really caught my eye. But I figured it was gonna flop. Still gonna go see it if I can find the time.

 4 months ago '05        #25
projectd06 2 heat pts
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Oh look an article from the future
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