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Jul 6 - ‘High Likelihood of Human Civilization Coming to an End’ Starting in 2050


 
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 3 weeks ago '06        #1
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RAZAH CUTS 6763 heat pts6763
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Jul 6 - ‘High Likelihood of Human Civilization Coming to an End’ Starting in 2050
 

 
The climate change analysis was written by a former fossil fuel executive and backed by the former chief of Australia's military.


[IMG]https://video-images.vice.com/articles/5cf55060c020060007ffa4f0/lede/1559582858518-GettyImages-1015903012.jpeg?crop=0.9955555555555555xw%3A1xh%3B center%2Ccenter&resize=1050%3A*&output-quality=55[/IMG]

A harrowing scenario analysis of how human civilization might collapse in coming decades due to climate change has been endorsed by a former Australian defense chief and senior royal navy commander.

The analysis, published by the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, a think-tank in Melbourne, Australia, describes climate change as “a near- to mid-term existential threat to human civilization” and sets out a plausible scenario of where business-as-usual could lead over the next 30 years.


The paper argues that the potentially “extremely serious outcomes” of climate-related security threats are often far more probable than conventionally a*sumed, but almost impossible to quantify because they “fall outside the human experience of the last thousand years.”

On our current trajectory, the report warns, “planetary and human systems [are] reaching a ‘point of no return’ by mid-century, in which the prospect of a largely uninhabitable Earth leads to the breakdown of nations and the international order.”

The only way to avoid the risks of this scenario is what the report describes as “akin in scale to the World War II emergency mobilization”—but this time focused on rapidly building out a zero-emissions industrial system to set in train the restoration of a safe climate.

The scenario warns that our current trajectory will likely lock in at least 3 degrees Celsius (C) of global heating, which in turn could trigger further amplifying feedbacks unleashing further warming. This would drive the accelerating collapse of key ecosystems “including coral reef systems, the Amazon rainforest and in the Arctic.”

The results would be devastating. Some one billion people would be forced to attempt to relocate from unlivable conditions, and two billion would face scarcity of water supplies. Agriculture would collapse in the sub-tropics, and food production would suffer dramatically worldwide. The internal cohesion of nation-states like the US and China would unravel.


“Even for 2°C of warming, more than a billion people may need to be relocated and in high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model with a high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end,” the report notes.

The new policy briefing is written by David Spratt, Breakthrough’s research director and Ian Dunlop, a former senior executive of Royal Dutch Shell who previously chaired the Australian Coal a*sociation.

In the briefing’s foreword, retired Admiral Chris Barrie—Chief of the Australian Defence Force from 1998 to 2002 and former Deputy Chief of the Australian Navy—commends the paper for laying “bare the unvarnished truth about the desperate situation humans, and our planet, are in, painting a disturbing picture of the real possibility that human life on Earth may be on the way to extinction, in the most horrible way.”

Barrie now works for the Climate Change Institute at Australian National University, Canberra.

Spratt told Motherboard that a key reason the risks are not understood is that “much knowledge produced for policymakers is too conservative. Because the risks are now existential, a new approach to climate and security risk a*sessment is required using scenario analysis.”

Last October, Motherboard reported on scientific evidence that the UN’s summary report for government policymakers on climate change—whose findings were widely recognized as “devastating”—were in fact too optimistic.

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While the Breakthrough scenario sets out some of the more ‘high end’ risk possibilities, it is often not possible to meaningfully quantify their probabilities. As a result, the authors emphasize that conventional risk approaches tend to downplay worst-case scenarios despite their plausibility.

Spratt and Dunlop’s 2050 scenario illustrates how easy it could be to end up in an accelerating runaway climate scenario which would lead to a largely uninhabitable planet within just a few decades.

“A high-end 2050 scenario finds a world in social breakdown and outright chaos,” said Spratt. “But a short window of opportunity exists for an emergency, global mobilization of resources, in which the logistical and planning experiences of the national security sector could play a valuable role.”

Update: This story's headline has been updated to reflect that the paper suggests 2050 is when the analysts suspect widespread global strife will begin.


visit this link https://www.vice.com/en_u .. an-end-in-2050
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 3 weeks ago '18        #2
addth3sauce 29 heat pts29
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 3 weeks ago '17        #3
lucifershammer 19 heat pts19
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[video - click to view]

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 3 weeks ago '17        #4
FreeSmoke 69 heat pts69
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This the same as 2012 or nah ?

Cliffnotes?
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 3 weeks ago '05        #5
YoungHope 5 heat pts
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Policies for global mobilization need to be put in place now along with comprehensive plan to counteract global warming but... they won't.

Last minute relocation of people due to effects of climate change causing international crowding.

Lack of water supplies leading to "by any means" thinking....

Sound more like anarchy than 2012.
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 2 weeks ago '19        #6
925 2 heat pts
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Global Warming????

Biggest threat is Global Cooling from a solar minimum/volcano eruptions...

Well actually its from humans blowing this joint with nuclear weapons.
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 2 weeks ago '19        #7
jordanair45 1 heat pts
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So where is the best place to relocate ?
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 2 weeks ago '19        #8
Gold Face 3 heat pts
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It’s the reason why I got into the dark arts. When the end of days come. I’ve already made a blood pact with the powers that be in which I’ll still walk this earth
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 2 weeks ago '16        #9
smokeytheblunt2 5 heat pts
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I'll be dead for at least a few years already before that................

I do feel like Im going to see this world drastically change in my lifetime..........

I get the feeling a lot that Im going to look back on this time and think of it as part of the good days which is fu*king terrifying...........
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 2 weeks ago '16        #10
smokeytheblunt2 5 heat pts
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 Gold Face said
It’s the reason why I got into the dark arts. When the end of days come. I’ve already made a blood pact with the powers that be in which I’ll still walk this earth
how does that work with aliens? Satan has been pretty unclear about this with me...........
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 2 weeks ago '19        #11
Gold Face 3 heat pts
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 smokeytheblunt2 said
how does that work with aliens? Satan has been pretty unclear about this with me...........
This is satans world. Them aliens gotta check in

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 2 weeks ago '19        #12
drnarcisse 
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 2 weeks ago '16        #13
smokeytheblunt2 5 heat pts
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 Gold Face said
This is satans world. Them aliens gotta check in

some do some don't, it depends what galaxy/planet/dimension you're from............

Satan and I were party buddies for a while and he's a lot cooler than people think..........
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 2 weeks ago '06        #14
JUICEbox 
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 YoungHope said
Policies for global mobilization need to be put in place now along with comprehensive plan to counteract global warming but... they won't.

Last minute relocation of people due to effects of climate change causing international crowding.

Lack of water supplies leading to "by any means" thinking....

Sound more like anarchy than 2012.
U got it brother, seen the prequel? I think they called it katrina
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 2 weeks ago '19        #15
Purpleswag23 8 heat pts
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It really bothers me that our government hasn’t been able to find a solution to this since this problem started. If u can’t find a solution to a problem then your NOT a leader. give us our fu*king tax money back and get the fu*k out the White House im so sick of this country. n*ggas worrying bout a fu*king wall then the future of the planet, THE ONLY PLANET WE GOT, it’s not like we can all get on a spaceship and go to Venus smh

 2 weeks ago '16        #16
Pyschic 140 heat pts140
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A Brown World is what they really mean .
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 2 weeks ago '19        #17
Snip3Acct 10 heat pts10
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Earth has been dying. They have colonized another planet or moon. They clearly don't care about earth. It's the only explanation.
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 2 weeks ago '17        #18
lucifershammer 19 heat pts19
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 Gold Face said
It’s the reason why I got into the dark arts. When the end of days come. I’ve already made a blood pact with the powers that be in which I’ll still walk this earth
Satan will laugh as u rot for eternity
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 2 weeks ago '18        #19
addth3sauce 29 heat pts29
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 jordanair45 said
So where is the best place to relocate ?
Fiji

 2 weeks ago '04        #20
skillahmang 3 heat pts
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What a time to die

 2 weeks ago '18        #21
addth3sauce 29 heat pts29
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 Gold Face said
It’s the reason why I got into the dark arts. When the end of days come. I’ve already made a blood pact with the powers that be in which I’ll still walk this earth


[pic - click to view]

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 2 weeks ago '19        #22
925 2 heat pts
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 Purpleswag23 said
It really bothers me that our government hasn’t been able to find a solution to this since this problem started. If u can’t find a solution to a problem then your NOT a leader. give us our fu*king tax money back and get the fu*k out the White House im so sick of this country. n*ggas worrying bout a fu*king wall then the future of the planet, THE ONLY PLANET WE GOT, it’s not like we can all get on a spaceship and go to Venus smh
No offense a big part of the problem is the thinking government can come up with a solution for a potential climate change... It never works like that and that rational bestows way too much power on government- which always ends bad.

In reality the problem of man made climate change doesn't really exist its a fake problem these elites made up as an excuse to wield power. Thats what totalitarian governments do- create fake problems or cite unsolvable ones to make their citizens dependant on them. Everyone crying out for government a*sistance destroys our freedoms and has decimated family structures.

Al Gore said Florida would be under water by now and there would be no more snow. He flies private jets, lives in a huge air conditioned house, and made billions for him and his cronies. He did so by hustling a solution to a problem that he made up. Even if there was a man made global warming problem its highly unlikely governments wouldn't be able to fix it.

You had the right idea ... The US government should gives us our money and freedoms back so we can fix whatever comes next. That will never happen because a large portion of society looks at government like its their parents and they are children.
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 2 weeks ago '04        #23
Mr AirRic 11 heat pts11
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 Purpleswag23 said
It really bothers me that our government hasn’t been able to find a solution to this since this problem started.
there are solutions that have been clearly laid out, however our government has determined that fossil fuel puts too much money into the pockets of the elite, so they spout off conspiracy theories that go against scientific fact, hoping the country is ignorant enough to believe it. or they say that switching to renewables will hurt the economy (even though the biggest increase of energy jobs has been in the renewable energy sector)

...this is all so they can buy a little more time and milk it a little bit more, until we're forced to move to 100% renewable energy. sh*t, even exxon has admitted they contribute to global warming, but absolutely nothing has been done. to most of our government, their wealth >> the planet
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 2 weeks ago '06        #24
imthatinfamous 48 heat pts48
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Its been real yall...see you on the other side

 2 weeks ago '07        #25
stogz 19 heat pts19
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It's already too late.
+2   

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