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 1 week ago '08        #7801
Rebuild Mode 59 heat pts59 OP
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 devilinsider said
I donít have money in them that would bother me if I lost it. What expiry should I have taken? Iím expecting a real VIX spike between now and November.
You have to narrow the time frame down. Now to November is 3-4 months. Problem with VIX is it's a mean reverting index. The markets know that even if it does spike, it's not going to stay up for very long (unless a market crash happens which is a rare event). That's why you won't get much of a payoff for something a few months out, because markets know that if VIX spikes to $50 tomorrow it likely won't be that high in November.

So the 25% spike today in the VIX you're really not going to get paid much for it even though you're correct about the direction. You need to at most go 1 month out for VIX options. Timing is everything with it.

You're much better off buying SPY puts a few months out or just puts on individual stocks. They'll have much greater returns than the VIX.
+1   

 1 week ago '09        #7802
devilinsider 11 heat pts11
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 Rebuild Mode said
You have to narrow the time frame down. Now to November is 3-4 months. Problem with VIX is it's a mean reverting index. The markets know that even if it does spike, it's not going to stay up for very long (unless a market crash happens which is a rare event). That's why you won't get much of a payoff for something a few months out, because markets know that if VIX spikes to $50 tomorrow it likely won't be that high in November.

So the 25% spike today in the VIX you're really not going to get paid much for it even though you're correct about the direction. You need to at most go 1 month out for VIX options. Timing is everything with it.

You're much better off buying SPY puts a few months out or just puts on individual stocks. They'll have much greater returns than the VIX.
Gotcha.... thanks man
+1   

 1 week ago '08        #7803
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S&P 2835-2840 is major support coming up here



 1 week ago '09        #7804
devilinsider 11 heat pts11
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 Rebuild Mode said
S&P 2835-2840 is major support coming up here


+1   

 1 week ago '08        #7805
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 Rebuild Mode said
S&P 2835-2840 is major support coming up here



About 20 off lows.. held support so far.


edit: back at lows, testing this level again.


Last edited by Rebuild Mode; 08-14-2019 at 12:43 PM..

 1 week ago '08        #7806
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 Rebuild Mode said
S&P 2835-2840 is major support coming up here


Managed to hold this support into the close, but it was a really ugly finish at lows of day.

 1 week ago '09        #7807
devilinsider 11 heat pts11
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 Rebuild Mode said
Managed to hold this support into the close, but it was a really ugly finish at lows of day.
Agreed. Saw Trump was doing his best pump job on twitter earlier and futures were slightly in the green. Big data day tomorrow for US markets. Hard for me to see a lot of upside but Iíve been wrong before.

 1 week ago '08        #7808
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 devilinsider said
Agreed. Saw Trump was doing his best pump job on twitter earlier and futures were slightly in the green. Big data day tomorrow for US markets. Hard for me to see a lot of upside but Iíve been wrong before.
Pretty flat so far

 1 week ago '08        #7809
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 Rebuild Mode said
S&P 2835-2840 is major support coming up here


Broke below yesterday's lows, re-tested this support at 2835. Quick reversal off it again to highs of day. Its been tested multiple times in the last 2 days and has held.

 1 week ago '08        #7810
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S&P potentially in a new daily channel here if the early lows hold



 1 week ago '08        #7811
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 Rebuild Mode said
S&P potentially in a new daily channel here if the early lows hold


Breaking down through this

Support from August lows coming up at 2820-2825

 1 week ago '09        #7812
devilinsider 11 heat pts11
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 Rebuild Mode said
Breaking down through this

Support from August lows coming up at 2820-2825
Bounced off 2825 but that close wasnít very inspiring.

 1 week ago '08        #7813
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 devilinsider said
Bounced off 2825 but that close wasnít very inspiring.
It was pretty indecisive, but support did hold. Think we can test 2870 tomorrow with a break above today's highs. Weekly doesn't look good right now, definitely need to see a strong finish tomorrow for the weekly to be a little more constructive.
+1   

 1 week ago '07        #7814
willie_s 1 heat pts
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we gonna hold the 200 on the $spx fellas

 1 week ago '08        #7815
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 Rebuild Mode said
It was pretty indecisive, but support did hold. Think we can test 2870 tomorrow with a break above today's highs. Weekly doesn't look good right now, definitely need to see a strong finish tomorrow for the weekly to be a little more constructive.
Gapped up to the 2870 resistance. Needs to break out here through 2870-2875.

edit: broke through it


Last edited by Rebuild Mode; 08-16-2019 at 08:22 AM..

 1 week ago '08        #7816
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SPY weekly looking much better here. Held the uptrend support again, didn't break through last week's lows. As long as it holds today's gains it looks like a weekly bottom has been put in for now.



 5 days ago '09        #7817
devilinsider 11 heat pts11
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 Rebuild Mode said
SPY weekly looking much better here. Held the uptrend support again, didn't break through last week's lows. As long as it holds today's gains it looks like a weekly bottom has been put in for now.


What did you think of todayís price action? VIX crush was in full effect.

 5 days ago '08        #7818
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 devilinsider said
What did you think of todayís price action? VIX crush was in full effect.
Was pretty bullish. Need to clear through last week's highs though.
+1   

 4 days ago '17        #7819
money99 88 heat pts88
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 Rebuild Mode said
Was pretty bullish. Need to clear through last week's highs though.
Thoughts on $CCI bro a 5g investment company

And what you think on fears of a recession? Personally I donít think it happens any time short term would more likely happen in 2020/2021 after trump wins next election

 4 days ago '08        #7820
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 money99 said
Thoughts on $CCI bro a 5g investment company

And what you think on fears of a recession? Personally I donít think it happens any time short term would more likely happen in 2020/2021 after trump wins next election
CCI still looks bullish, strong uptrend. Would look for it to test $152-$153 for now.

A recession is inevitable, just a matter of when not if. As far as timing it, who knows. I think the signs are there with the Fed cutting rates and realizing the economy is not as strong as they thought. The inverted yield curve is signaling one also. Plus unrest in Honk Kong and the ongoing China trade war are catalysts to send us into a recession.

 3 days ago '19        #7821
boxden1987 
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Made a grip off target earnings calls.
+1   

 1 day ago '08        #7822
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Trump tweeting and sending the markets lower

 18 hrs ago '09        #7823
devilinsider 11 heat pts11
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 Rebuild Mode said
Trump tweeting and sending the markets lower
+1   

 18 hrs ago '08        #7824
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 devilinsider said
Not sure if you saw but Trump said he's raising tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation. Like an hour ago after the markets already closed

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